By Mike D'Angelo
PLEASE NOTE: This article is a FREE preview of our new NFL 2021 In-Season Package, which includes best bet player props from the Betting Predators team for every primetime game and every main Sunday slate, as well as access to our private betting Discord channel for subscribers and much more. Click here to learn more about our in-season package and how to get access to our NFL Power Ratings, DFS Strategy & Top Plays for every slate, Projected Line Movements/Lookahead Lines and information about our top player props and best bets as we make our wagers throughout the week. Any questions? Please email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com or shoot us a DM/message or comment on Twitter @BetPredators.
DISCLAIMER: Some lines may change from the time of podcast recording and publishing of this written recap before Sunday. Also, please know that that these are not official plays. I only give a very simplified version of Chris Dell and Sleepy's handicaps here below, simply because there will be stuff you may miss if you don't listen to the podcast and because we only have so much time to digest this in written form. Be sure to listen to the Betting Predators' weekly Player Props "Money Picks" podcast every Friday and also read Chris Dell's NFL Player Props column (released Sunday morning on the website) for his official plays.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) - O/U 54.5
Sleepy Likes Jalen Hurts Ov Rush + Miles Sanders Ov Rush
Analysis:
- No reason not to give Sanders the ball this week
- Kansas City 2nd last in run defence
- Philly struggles to pass the ball
- Philly doesn't have a skill position guy over 6 foot
- Buying low in this spot
Chris Likes: Devontae Smith Ov 47.5 Rec Yards + Mecole Hardman Un 41.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Smith is top 20 in air yards this year
- Just had poor match ups thus far
- Gets his best match up to date
- With a projected shout out, being the number 1 receiver, should go over his total
- Hardmans routes have gone down more per week
- Chiefs want to feed Hill the ball
Titans vs Jets (+6.5) - O/U 45
Sleepy Likes Michael Carter Ov 1.5 Rec + Likes Ov 8.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Jets cannot make mistakes
- Need to make secure passes
- Longer Zach sits in the pocket the worse it gets
- Need to play small ball
Chris Leans Corey Davis Ov 4.5 Rec + Ov 51.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Backs against the wall
- Big dogs at home
- Davis has been dealt a very bad matchup situation thus far
- VS his old team
- 5 or more catches in 2 of 3 games
- Titans do not have a good matchup for him
Bills vs Texans (+17) - O/U 47
Chris Likes Davis Mills Un 206.5 Passing Yards
Analysis:
- Out of the last three games only one QB threw for more than 200 yards
- Big ben threw 38 times and only achieved 188 yards
- Jacoby bersett needed 40 attempts to get to 160 yards
- Mills has been abysmal
- First ever road start
- Cooks has a poor match up in White
- Bills is 5th in coverage, 9th in pass rush, 5th overall
Panthers vs Cowboys (-4.5) - O/U 50.5
Chris Likes Chuba Hubbard Ov 22.5 Rec Yards + Pizza bet Ov 3.5 receptions
Analysis:
- Projections do not agree with bet
- Hard to factor in a guy having his first career start
- Once CMC went down he had 73% of snaps and 100% of snaps in 3rd in long situations
- 100% of snaps handled in 2 minute drill
- 22% target share
- Opposing Running backs have done well through the air vs Cowboys (10+ rec, 39+ rec yards)
Notes: Chris also Leans CeeDee Lamb Ov Yards and Leans Terrace Marshall Ov Receptions; quite a few to target in this match up
Saints vs Giants (+7) - O/U 42
Sleepy Likes Jameis Winston Ov 201 Passing Yards
- Saints finally play a “home” opener
- Winston looks bad but its a case of buying low
- A lot of value on the number
- Giants 22/23rd in pass defence
Chris Likes Marquez Callaway Un 49.5 Rec Yards
- Callaway runs have decreased in three straight games
- Goes up against two good corners on the Giants
- Saints leaning on the run
- 10th slowest pace in NFL
Lions vs Bears
Game is a mess - aim for defensive props - sacks and INTs thrown
Browns vs Vikings (+2) - O/U 51.5
Sleepy Likes Cousins Ov 6.5 Rush Yards (Situation dependant)
Analysis:
- Cleveland will do all they can to shut down options
- Rush cousins
- Cousins need to get out fast
- Most success rushing this year was against cardinals who have been great at getting pressure on QBs
Chris Likes Odell beckham Ov 65.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Gets a plus match up
- Is still very good even at 60% of true potential
- Did very well against a team and game script where he was not suppose to get the ball
- Now the game has a script that favors him in this spot with a weaker CB
- In a dome with a fast track
- High total in this game
Washington vs Atlanta (+1) - O/U 47.5
Sleepy Likes ATL TT Un 23.5
Analysis:
- Washington is being thrown in the garbage
- Fade against ATL offense
- Buying low once again
Colts vs Dolphins (-2.5) - O/U 42.5
Sleepy Leans Hines Ov 52.5 Rush + Rec Yards + Hines Anytime TD
Analysis:
- Only guy that can be trusted
- Taylor is banged up
- Miami is a question mark due to QB issues
Chris Likes Waddle Ov 3.5 Rec
Analysis:
- Has had a great amount of targets
- Even though they had a QB change the style has stayed the same
- Waddles role fits perfectly into the scheme
- Jacoby trusts him
- He leads the team in targets and rec yards
- Targets have gone up every week
Cardinals vs Rams (-3.5) - O/U 54
Sleepy likes Kyler Murray ov 33.5 rush yards
Analysis:
- Has not eclipsed this number this season
- Buying low on the number
- Rams can break through and get pressure
- Due to CBs having the ability to shut down some of his options - he may be forced to run more
Chris Likes Kupp Ov 82.5 Rec Yards + 6.5 Catches + Leans Kirk Ov Rec Yard
Analysis:
- Line is not high enough
- Could lead fantasy in production
- Stafford trusts him
- Big game for both teams, conference
- Kirks numbers are really low and it makes no sense
- In a shootout, being arguably murray's favorite option, no reason he should be in the 40s
FSeattle (+3) vs San rancisco - O/U 52
Sleepy Likes Seattle (+3) + Leans Ov 10.5 3rd down conversions
Analysis:
- Seattle off of a lose
- Stay on the west coast between games
- Better QB, WR, more experienced coach
- Shootout helps 3rd down bet
- Both offenses are good enough for this to work
Chris Leans game total Un 52 + Carson Un 11.5 Rec Yards
Analysis:
- Both teams have been incredibly slow in pace
- SF is running at the 5th slowest pace
- Seattle is LAST in time of possession
- Carson has had his routes decreased by nearly 40%
- Homer coming in to take work load
- In 2 min drill last week = 0%
- 3rd and long he was used only 13% of the time
Packers (-6.5) vs Steelers - O/U 45.5
Sleepy Likes Adams Ov 7.5 Rec + Leans Ov Rec Yards
Analysis:
- He is clearly contending for the number one WR in the league
- 18 targets LW
- Led week 3 with 253 airyards and still felt like he left a lot on the field
- Tier of his own
Chris Likes Diontae Johnson Ov Receptions
Analysis:
- Has been practicing fully
- Claypool has been downgraded to questionable and Juju did not practice
- Need quick passes especially if behind
- Betting on the Rec yards are not safe due to Big Ben
Baltimore (-1) vs Broncos - O/U 44.5
Sleepy likes Jackson Ov 0.5 INT
Analysis:
- Denver defence is great, even though they have not played anyone “elite”
- Lamar could try to do to much
- Like the game script to support this pick