By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
Outright Winners
(0.25) Finau @ DK 25:1
(0.10) Lipsky @ DK 100:1
(0.10) B. Wu @ DK 100:1
(0.05) Smalley @ DK 130:1
(0.05) L. Griffin @ DK 150:1
—
(0.05) Ramey @ Bet365 200:1
(0.10) Ghim @ FD 70:1
(0.05) Barjon @ MB 500:1
(0.20) Woodland @ FD 36:1
(0.05) Mullinax @ FD 280:1
= 1 Unit
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Unless Noted)
(0.5 Units) Finau T30 @ FD +110
Lipsky T40 @ FD +165
B. Wu T40 @ FD +160
Smalley T40 @ DK +160
L. Griffin T40 @ DK +180
Lipsky MAKE CUT @ FD -158
Finau MAKE CUT @ Bet365 -250
= 2 Units
First Round Leader
(0.15) Finau @ BO 40:1
(0.10) Lipsky @ DK 80:1
(0.05) L. Griffin @ DK 100:1
(0.05) Smalley @ DK 90:1
(0.10) B. Wu @ DK 80:1
(0.05) Kang @ DK 140:1
(0.05) Novak @ DK 130:1
(0.05) Skinns @ DK 250:1
(0.05) Trainer @ DK 200:1
—
(0.05) Ramey @ Bet365 110:1
(0.10) Ghim @ DK 75:1
(0.05) Barjon @ DK 200:1
(0.10) Woodland @ FD 50:1
(0.05) Mullinax @ DK 150:1
= 1 Unit
Full Betting Card Breakdown:
- 7 Tournament Bets = 2 Units
- 10 Outright Winner Bets = 1 Unit
- 14 First Round Leader Bets = 1 Unit
- Total = 4 Units
TNT BUYS (Data From Mexico Open)
Ramey +5.19 (CUT)
Ghim +3.28
Finau +3.27
Howell +2.99
Barjon +2.90 (CUT)
Woodland +2.79
Lipsky +2.62
Mullinax +2.41
Wise +2.00
L. Griffin +1.93
Smalley +1.84
Rahm +1.23
B. Wu +0.99
RD1 BUYS (Using RD4 Data From Mexico Open)
Sung Kang +5.95
Novak +5.39
Skinns +3.16
L. Griffin +2.95
Finau +2.54
Smalley +2.37
B. Wu +1.81
Lipsky +1.67
Wise +0.60
Trainer -0.61
TNT FADES (Using All Rounds Data From Mexico Open)
J. Wagner -7.62 (CUT)
Inman -5.37 (CUT)
Reeves -4.22 (CUT)
Willman -4.12 (CUT)
Werenski -3.99 (CUT)
Baddeley -3.63 (CUT)
Barnes -3.52 (CUT)
Drewitt -3.49
Haas -3.30
Lebioda -3.28
Seiffert -3.27 (CUT)
Ernst -3.04 (CUT)
Van Pelt -2.67 (CUT)
Van Der Walt -2.60 (CUT)
Whaley -2.46 (CUT)
Sloan -2.27 (CUT)
Safa -2.18 (CUT)
D. Lee -2.04 (CUT)
Hearn -1.81 (CUT)
Islas -1.18 (CUT)
Lingmerth -1.04 (CUT)
R.S. Johnson -0.55 (CUT)
V. Taylor -0.55 (WD)
De La Fuente +0.48 (CUT)
RD1 FADES (Using RD4 Data From Mexico Open)
S. Brown -8.95
Reed -5.26
A. Ortiz -4.87
Lebioda -4.56
Points -4.53
Munoz -4.21
W. Bryan -4.15
Haas -4.06
Drewitt -3.80
Gainey -3.79
Hubbard -3.56
Theegala -3.21
Buckley -1.59
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com