The Betting Predators team delivers you the most actionable NFL Betting analysis, period, with a focus on long-term profitability, as well as sports betting education and transparency through tracking results.
Our 2023 NFL Betting Preview "E-Book" is also now live and FREE to access on our website. We have spent the entire offseason researching, reading articles, listening to podcasts, and ignoring our familial responsibilities to find and filter the best and most important NFL information and best bets you need for this upcoming season. For this edition, we will cover the 2023 betting prospects of the Kansas City Chiefs.
As part of our 2023 NFL Betting Preview E-Book series, we will look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace. Make sure to read our Glossary and Analytics keyword primer below, as we release one team betting preview chapter at a time from now through Monday, August 28th.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Reasons for optimism? These are the Kansas City Chiefs. With Andy Reid as their coach and Patrick Mahomes as the quarterback, there is always reason for optimism. There is nothing sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek about that statement. No matter who is playing for them, or what receivers Mahomes has, they always seem to be successful. Last year was supposed to see a drop-off without Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs managed to win the Super Bowl. This season, they lost RT Orlando Brown, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, and DE Frank Clark to free agency, but found serviceable, if not better, replacements in their stead. This is perhaps the best defensive unit the Chiefs have had in the Mahomes era. With a youthful offensive skill position unit a year more mature and an improved defensive group, the Chiefs are poised for another run.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Eric Bienemy left his Offensive Coordinator position for the same title in Washington. He didn’t call plays for the Chiefs, but it is notable. The Chiefs also lost Safety Juan Thornhill without adding additional players to fill the role, they will look to promote from within. Last year the Chiefs were supposed to have one of the most difficult schedules in the league. That didn’t end up being the case, but this year projects to be much more difficult. The Chiefs also had the benefit of remaining healthy last year, ranking fourth in adjusted games lost. Kansas City will face the third-worst net rest advantage this season. The Chiefs D projects to be improved, but defense is unpredictable from year to year. Perhaps the only thing that truly slows down this Chiefs group is an injury to Mahomes or, to a far lesser extent, Travis Kelce.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - BETTING OPPORTUNITIES
The Chiefs have been such a dominant team year in and year out that it is tough to count them out of any game or predict their demise in the futures market. If I had to choose, I’d fade the Chiefs in every weekly game but bet their season win total over. There is something about Mahomes and Reid that isn’t quantifiable. It is reminiscent of the Brady/Belichick run. I don’t see much value in attacking any traditional market at the moment, including the futures. One injury to Mahomes and the win total over is drawing dead. Without traditional betting markets, I’ll pivot to a teaser where I expect the Chiefs will have everything to play for and the Raiders’ hopes will be effectively lost.
2023 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BEST BET
- Week 12: 7-point teaser KC -2.5/NE +10