The Betting Predators team delivers you the most actionable NFL Betting analysis, period, with a focus on long-term profitability, as well as sports betting education and transparency through tracking results.
Our 2023 NFL Betting Preview "E-Book" is also now live and FREE to access on our website. We have spent the entire offseason researching, reading articles, listening to podcasts, and ignoring our familial responsibilities to find and filter the best and most important NFL information and best bets you need for this upcoming season. For this edition, we will cover the 2023 betting prospects of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
As part of our 2023 NFL Betting Preview E-Book series, we will look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace. Make sure to read our Glossary and Analytics keyword primer below, as we release one team betting preview chapter at a time from now through Monday, August 28th.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
One would be hard-pressed to make a strong case for Tampa Bay to be optimistic to make the playoffs like they did last season, but a case can certainly be made for them to eclipse their 6.5 win total. The QB position will be replaced by Kyle Trask, a complete unknown, and Baker Mayfield, who has shown some promise amidst his relatively disappointing career. They will be throwing to a terrific trio of WRs in Evans, Godwin, and Gage. The Bucs could strike gold or famine by reshuffling and adding to their O-line. Tampa Bay also drafted stud DT Calijah Kancey who has a chance to be a real difference-maker and add to a defense that finished 11th in EPA allowed. Perhaps this team could surprise some people with an easier schedule and lower expectations.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - CAUSE FOR CONCERN
There isn’t much of a case to be optimistic about the Buccaneers. They lost perhaps the best QB of all time in Tom Brady. Even if Brady wasn’t his usual self and came in with baggage, he still led the Bucs to a 6-4 one-score game record and to the playoffs. Trask and Mayfield project to be a substantial downgrade from the GOAT. Tampa was -45 in point differential last season, the worst among playoff teams. According to Pythagorean expectations, the Bucs should have won closer to 7 games. Regarding 4th quarter win probability, they should have come out victorious in only 5.9 games. Combining those stats and settling on an actual 2022 win total of 6.5 doesn’t bring much hope to a team that also has to manage the downgrade at quarterback.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - BETTING OPPORTUNITES
Finding reasons for optimism with this Bucs group is an exercise in futility. They have one of the league's worst coaching staffs, quarterbacks, offensive lines, and running backs. Defensively, they are slightly above average, but it certainly is not enough to carry the day. Tom Brady was in the twilight of his career, but whatever limited success Tampa Bay had on offense, it was because of him. With TB out in TB, they have to hope for positive turnover and injury regression and lean on their manageable schedule to find success. I have serious doubts they will live up to their limited potential. Despite their offseason decisions to sign veterans, I fully expect the Bucs to struggle.
2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BEST BET
TB Under 6.5 Wins (-130)
(Play to -145)