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The Betting Predators team delivers you the most actionable NFL Betting analysis, period, with a focus on long-term profitability, as well as sports betting education and transparency through tracking results.
Our 2023 NFL Betting Preview "E-Book" is also now live and FREE to access on our website. We have spent the entire offseason researching, reading articles, listening to podcasts, and ignoring our familial responsibilities to find and filter the best and most important NFL information and best bets you need for this upcoming season. For this edition, we will cover the 2023 betting prospects of the Washington Commanders.
As part of our 2023 NFL Betting Preview E-Book series, we will look at the current state of each team in an attempt to identify reasons for optimism and causes for concern and, most importantly, what can be exploited in the current betting marketplace. Make sure to read our Glossary and Analytics keyword primer below, as we release one team betting preview chapter at a time from now through Monday, August 28th.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS - REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The Commanders defense was one of the best units in the NFL last season despite a very difficult schedule, despite playing without DE stalwart Chase Young for the first 14 games. Washington’s defense finished 5th in EPA per play, 9th in pass EPA, 3rd in rush EPA, and 1st in success rate. The weakest part of their defense was their secondary, and the Commanders drafted two cornerbacks, including ballhawking Mississippi State corner Emmanuel Forbes. Washington’s defense is playoff, if not Super Bowl caliber. They could make a playoff push if the offense can play even average. With a solid group of receivers in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson, Sam Howell could be a diamond in the rough. If not, journeyman Jacoby Brissett is the backup. |
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS - CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Even with the Commanders defense playing incredibly well last season, they only mustered a .500 record. Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke quarterbacked last year’s team. Neither are starter-worthy, but both have more talent than 5th-round quarterback Sam Howell. The Commanders’ limited success last season was a bit of a facade. They finished 6th-best in blended 4Q win% over expected, 4th in fumble rec %, and went 5-3 in one-score games. Defenses tend to vacillate from year to year, so to expect the defensive side of the ball to live up to last year’s results is probably a fool’s errand. With a top-10 most challenging schedule and the worst projected starting QB in the league, it could be a long year for Washington. |
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS - BETTING OPPORTUNITES
The Commanders are the worst team in the NFC East, and I don’t think it's close. Starting Sam Howell at QB will allow them to evaluate him, but he will most likely flame out. Although Brissett has had success in the NFL, I have serious doubts about him behind a porous offensive line and alongside a nonexistent run game. OC Eric Bienemy was brought in to rejuvenate this offense, but he hasn’t called plays in KC, which limits my expectations of his success. He may have also been brought in as a stopgap in case HC Ron Rivera is let go, a definite possibility if the wheels fall off. The Washington Commanders know they need a QB in next year’s draft.
2023 WASHINGTON COMMANDERS BEST BET
Week 8 PHI -4 at WAS (Play to -5.5)
