By Chris Dell
All rankings below are adjusted for injuries and this weekend’s current field at Oak Hill Country Club
How this works: in order to formulate our consensus power ratings, as well as top buys and top fades, we will simply tally up the number of “negative quality” traits and “positive quality” traits that shows up for each golfer throughout this article. After doing that, we will take the net score of “positive traits - negative traits,” which will determine whether a golfer makes our list as a top buy or a top fade. Anyone who scores between -1 to +1 will not be listed in the final power ratings and will be considered, for all intents and purposes, as a "neutral" golfer. Therefore, we will only show top buys who score +2 or higher, and we will only show top fades who score -2 or lower. When it comes to the LIV Tour, please note that there are far less stats/data points publicly available to track for these golfers. Because of this, we will add a specific section for “LIV Top Buys” below our main consensus power ratings. If you have any questions on how I create these weekly consensus power ratings, and how we use them to formulate a majority of our pre-tournament bets, message us on Twitter @BetPredators or send an email to bettingpredators@gmail.com. We’ll do our best to respond in a timely manner.
Please note: these pre-tournament consensus power ratings below are different from our “in-tournament” live betting model, which you can access as part of our Betting Predators premium golf picks package. Our premium picks package also includes all pre-tournament best bets, every single week.
All “negative traits" for players below will be italicized, while all other mentions of player names will be considered as “positive traits". Golfers with an asterisk (*) next to their name means that they have both negative traits + positive traits in their overall statistical profile for this course at Oak Hill Country Club.
Abbreviation key:
SG = Strokes Gained
L24 = Last 24
OWG = Official World Golf
APP = Approach
OTT = Off The Tee
ARG = Around The Green
PUTT = Putting
BS = Ball Striking
T2G = Tee To Green
DG = Data Golf
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CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP BUYS - PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
TIER 1
Scheffler +37
Rahm +34
Finau +28
Rory +26
Xander +25
Cantlay +25
*Morikawa +23
TIER 2
Hovland +19
JT +18
Sungjae +17
Clark +16
*Young +16
TIER 3
Day +14
Hatton +13
Fitzpatrick +13
Fowler +12
*Spieth +11
*Hideki +10
TIER 4
Burns +9
*Homa +9
T. Kim +8
Woodland +8
Fleetwood +7
Conners +6
N. Hojgaard +6
*Hoge +6
Henley +5
Burmester +5
Lowry +4
Scott +4
Min Woo Lee +4
*Steele +4
TIER 5
Bradley +3
Rose +3
Grillo +3
Mitchell +3
Mullinax +3
Fox +3
TIER 6
Kitayama +2
Theegala +2
McCarthy +2
R. Hojgaard +2
Webb +2
Kirk +2
T. Moore +2
Montgomery +2
*Kuchar +2
“TIER LIV”
DJ +11
Bryson +7
Koepka +6
Cam Smith +5
Pereira +5
Niemann +3
Phil +3
Gooch +3
Varner +2
CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP FADES - PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
TIER 1
Inglis -9
Micheel -9
Yang -8
TIER 2
Worthington -6
Beach -6
Block -6
Killeen -6
Holmes -5
French -5
Koch -5
Kern -5
Sihwan Kim -4
Alker -4
TIER 3
Donald -3
Reynolds -3
Shattuck -3
Sanger -3
Cahill -3
Grove -3
Cordes -3
Droemer -3
Pigman -3
Speith -3
Wells -3
Strydom -3
Lingmerth -3
*Putnam -3
*Somers -3
Herbert -2
Kisner -2
FULL LIST OF KEY STATS & ACTIONABLE DATA (all reference links are listed at the bottom of this article)
DataGolf Rankings
Rahm
Scheffler
Xander
Cantlay
Finau
Rory
Sungjae
Hatton
Day
JT
Clark
Homa
Spieth
Morikawa
Young
Hovland
Fitzpatrick
Cam Smith
DJ
Fowler
Burns
Henley
Fleetwood
Hideki
Conners
OWG Rankings
Rahm
Scheffler
Rory
Cantlay
Xander
Homa
Fitzpatrick
Cam Smith
Spieth
Hovland
Finau
JT
Burns
Young
Morikawa
Hatton
Sungjae
T. Kim
Day
Kitayama
Bradley
Fleetwood
Hideki
Theegala
Lowry
DataGolf Implied Win Probability (PGA Championship)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Finau
Morikawa
Sungjae
Day
Hovland
Young
JT
Spieth
Hatton
Fitzpatrick
Koepka
Fowler
Burns
JT
Hideki
Cam Smith
Henley
T. Kim
Homa
Fleetwood
Betsperts’ Stat Model Rankings (PGA Championship)
Finau
Rahm
Cantlay
Scheffler
Xander
Rory
Hatton
Spieth
Hideki
Rose
DJ
Clark
JT
Sungjae
Homa
Bradley
Day
Hovland
Cam Smith
Scott
Woodland
Fleetwood
Pereira
Fowler
McCarthy
Burns
Steele
Young
Morikawa
Niemann
Lowry
T. Kim
Conners
Fitzpatrick
Grillo
Action Network’s Model Rankings (PGA Championship)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Hatton
Rory
Hovland
Niemann
Clark
Finau
DJ
Woodland
Spieth
Fleetwood
Xander
Fowler
SG APP L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Rahm
Finau
Morikawa
Clark
Scheffler
SG OTT L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Cantlay
Scheffler
Hovland
Woodland
Sungjae
SG Total on Difficult Par-70s Over 7,200 Yards L24 Rounds (Action Network)
DJ
Koepka
Spieth
Hideki
Day
Driving Distance L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Rory
Young
N. Hojgaard
Arnaus
Bryson
Bogey Avoidance L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Day
Scheffler
Clark
Hideki
Fitzpatrick
SG APP L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Finau
Xander
Morikawa
Scheffler
Clark
Fowler
Hoge
Homa
Rahm
Steele
Opportunities Gained L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Clark
Hoge
Rory
Young
Finau
Steele
Scheffler
Conners
Rahm
Hovland
Proximity from 200+ L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Rahm
Hoge
Woodland
T. Kim
Finau
Cantlay
Varner
Svensson
Reavie
Burmester
SG Difficult Courses/Par 70 L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
DJ
Rory
Hideki
Webb
Scheffler
Finau
Lowry
Fitzpatrick
Morikawa
SG “OTT Combo” L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Woodland
Scheffler
Young
Rory
Mitchell
Rahm
Cantlay
Burns
Hovland
Scott
Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Rahm
Xander
Clark
Hatton
Finau
Scheffler
Grillo
Cantlay
Fitzpatrick
Sungjae
SG ARG L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Todd
Kuchar
Griffin
JT
Walker
Kirk
Gooch
Fleetwood
Sungjae
Scheffler
SG Bentgrass Putting L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Cantlay
Bezuidenhout
Todd
Kaymer
McNealy
Bradley
Putnam
Olesen
McCarthy
Finau
“Peaking” Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Hideki
Woodland
Buckley
Scott
JT
“Fading” Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Hoge
Steele
Riley
Young
Morikawa
SG: AVG Strong Field Events 2019-2022 (Betsperts)
Rahm
Rory
JT
Xander
Scheffler
Cantlay
Webb
Morikawa
Fitzpatrick
SG: AVG +/- Strong Field Events 2019-2022 (Betsperts)
McNealy
NeSmith
Kuchar
Stallings
Ryder
Young
Homa
Rodgers
Herbert
SG: TOTAL AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Rahm
Scheffler
Finau
Xander
Hatton
Cantlay
Day
Homa
Fleetwood
Sungjae
Fowler
Rory
Morikawa
Clark
Kuchar
JT
Rose
N. Taylor
Kirk
Spieth
Fitzpatrick
T. Kim
Si Woo Kim
Hideki
Hoge
T. Moore
--
Kisner
Herbert
SG: APP AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Finau
Hoge
Rahm
Morikawa
Xander
Scheffler
SG: OTT AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Scheffler
--
Kisner
Donald
SG: BIRDIE OR BETTER AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Rahm
Cantlay
Finau
Scheffler
Young
Montgomery
Hoge
Homa
Xander
Day
Sungjae
Hovland
Scott
Fowler
Spieth
JT
SG: PUTT AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
McNealy
Ryder
Montgomery
Player Skill Decompositions - Overall (DG)
Scheffler
Rahm
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Finau
Sungjae
Day
Morikawa
JT
Hovland
Young
Spieth
Fitzpatrick
Hatton
Fowler
Koepka
Burns
Hideki
--
Holmes
French
Reynolds
Shattuck
Sanger
Cahill
Grove
Cordes
Droemer
Inglis
Worthington
Beach
Micheel
Somers
Sihwan Kim
Pigman
Block
Killeen
Yang
Speight
Wells
Koch
Kern
Strydom
Player Skill Decompositions - Driving Distance (DG)
Rory
Bryson
Young
Burmester
N. Hojgaard
Min Woo Lee
Rahm
R. Hojgaard
Clark
Mullinax
DJ
Fox
Mitchell
Scheffler
--
Alker
Lingmerth
Todd
Micheel
Holmes
Inglis
Donald
Reavie
Putnam
French
Player Skill Ratings - SG Total (DG)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Xander
Rory
Finau
Sungjae
JT
Young
Hatton
Day
Hovland
Morikawa
Fitzpatrick
Spieth
Player Skill Ratings - SG OTT/APP (DG)
Scheffler (OTT)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Xander
Finau
Rahm
Player Skill Ratings - Driving Distance (DG)
Rory
Bryson
Young
Burmester
N. Hojgaard
Min Woo Lee
Rahm
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG Total (DG)
Rahm
Cantlay
Scheffler
Rory
Xander
JT
Finau
Cam Smith
Sungjae
Morikawa
Hovland
Burns
Fitzpatrick
DJ
--
Worthington
Inglis
Beach
Micheel
Kern
Somers
Killeen
Koch
Block
Yang
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG T2G (DG)
Scheffler
Rory
Rahm
Cantlay
JT
Xander
Finau
Morikawa
--
Inglis
Micheel
Worthington
Beach
Kern
Yang
Block
Killeen
Strydom
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG OTT/APP (DG)
Rahm
Xander
Morikawa
--
Ingles
Kern
Yang
Sihwan Kim
Micheel
Inglis
Worthington
Killeen
Yang
Beach
Koch
Block
Higa
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years Driving Distance (DG)
Bryson
Rory
Young
Burmester
N. Hojgaard
Pendrith
Fox
Min Woo Lee
Clark
Mullinax
Somers
--
Inglis
Yang
Alker
Micheel
Todd
Lingmerth
Putnam
Course Fit: Total SG Adjustment (DG)
Scheffler
Rahm
Cantlay
Morikawa
Henley
Xander
Sungjae
T. Kim
Finau
--
French
Reynolds
Shattuck
Sanger
Cahill
Grove
Cordes
Worthington
Inglis
Beach
Droemer
Holmes
Block
Koch
Somers
Micheel
Killeen
Sihwan Kim
Speight
Pigman
Wells
Strydom
Yang
Course Fit: Driving Distance (DG)
Rory
Bryson
Young
Burmester
N. Hojgaard
Min Woo Lee
Rahm
R. Hojgaard
Clark
Mullinax
DJ
Fox
Mitchell
Scheffler
--
Alker
Lingmerth
Todd
Micheel
Holmes
Inglis
Donald
Reavie
Putnam
French
Course Fit: Total SG Approach (DG)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Xander
Finau
Rahm
JT
Cantlay
Hovland
Woodland
Conners
Pereira
Rory
Spieth
Young
Hatton
T. Kim
Fowler
Henley
Lowry
Clark
Homa
Gooch
Hideki
DJ
Day
Steele
--
Holmes
Cordes
Reynolds
Shattuck
Sanger
Cahill
Grove
French
Worthington
Droemer
Inglis
Micheel
Beach
Somers
Block
Sihwan Kim
Koch
Killeen
Yang
Pigman
Wells
Speight
Kern
Kaewkanjana
Expected Tournament Wins (DG)
Rahm (MAJORS)
Rahm
Scheffler
Homa
Finau
Xander
Cantlay
Rory
Kitayama
Hovland
Clark
True Strokes Gained 2023: TOTAL (DG)
Rahm
Scheffler
Xander
Cantlay
Finau
Rory
Day
Hovland
Sungjae
Fowler
Morikawa
Young
Homa
Hatton
JT
Rose
Clark
True Strokes Gained 2023: T2G (DG)
Scheffler
Koepka
Phil
Pereira
Rahm
Rory
Finau
Cantlay
Morikawa
Xander
JT
Young
Hovland
Sungjae
Hatton
Day
True Strokes Gained 2023: OTT (DG)
Bryson
Niemann
Scheffler
Rory
Hovland
Phil
Cantlay
True Strokes Gained 2023: APP (DG)
Koepka
Pereira
Phil
Xander
Finau
Morikawa
Scheffler
Rahm
Fowler
Trending Table/Recent Form (DG)
Xander
Scheffler
Sungjae
Rahm
Finau
Cantlay
Henley
Clark
Koepka
Young
Spieth
Fitzpatrick
Day
Fowler
Kuchar
Rory
T. Moore
Hatton
Burns
Reed
N. Hojgaard
K.H. Lee
Conners
Morikawa
Approach Skill: 150-200 Yards From Fairway (DG)
Morikawa
Rahm
JT
Hovland
Scheffler
Approach Skill: 200+ Yards From Fairway (DG)
Xander
Morikawa
Sungjae
Woodland
Gooch
Bryson
Scheffler
Conners
Hovland
B. Taylor
Rahm
T. Kim
Steele
Varner
Theegala
Hardy
Kokrak
Grillo
Cantlay
Finau
English
Hoge
Burns
Rory
Rodgers
Pereira
Injury Roundup (Underdog Network + Establish The Run)
Spieth (Wrist)
Hideki (Neck/Wrist)
MacIntyre (Back)
Putnam (Back)
Resources used for this article:
Action Network’s Model Rankings (Matt Vincenzi)
Betsperts’ PGA Championship Course Preview (Ron Klos)
Betsperts’ Research and Key Stat Model (Pat James)
Betsperts’ PGA Tour Splits Strong vs. Weak Fields (Ron Klos)
Underdog Network’s PGA Championship Injury Notes (Nick DeMott)
NumberFire’s PGA Championship Course Key Stats (Brandon Gdula)
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN, and Yahoo, among other publications. He’s also the co-founder and director of fantasy football/player props content for The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com