By Chris Dell
Key stats and actionable data points for the RBC Canadian Open at Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, Ontario. All rankings below are adjusted for injuries and the current field.
What: RBC Canadian Open, PGA Tour
Where: Oakdale Golf & Country Club, Toronto, ON (Par 72)
When: June 8-11, 2023
Previous Winners (2022-2018): Rory McIlroy (2022), Rory McIlroy (2019), Dustin Johnson (2018)
To formulate our power ratings, as well as top buys and top fades, we will simply tally up the number of “negative quality” traits and “positive quality” traits that shows up for each golfer below. The net score of “positive trait - negative trait” will determine whether a golfer makes the list as a top buy or a top fade. Any golfer who scores between -1 to +1 will not be listed in the final power ratings. Therefore, we will only show top buys who score +2 or higher, and we will only show top fades who score -2 or lower. When it comes to the LIV, please note that there are far less stats/traits publicly available to track for these golfers. Because of this, we will add our section for “LIV Top Buys” and “LIV Top Fades” below our main power ratings when these golfers are involved. If you have any questions on how we create these weekly consensus power ratings and how we use them to formulate a majority of our pre-tournament bets, message us on Twitter @BetPredators or send an email to bettingpredators@gmail.com.
Please note: these pre-tournament consensus power ratings below are different from our “in-tournament” live betting model, which you can access as part of our premium golf picks package. Our premium picks package also includes all pre-tournament best bets, every week.
- All “negative quality” traits for players below will be bolded/italicized
- All other mentions of player names will be considered as “positive quality” traits
- Golfers with an asterisk (*) means that they have both negative quality + positive quality traits
Abbreviation key:
SG = Strokes Gained
L24 = Last 24
OWG = Official World Golf
APP = Approach
OTT = Off The Tee
ARG = Around The Green
PUTT = Putting
BS = Ball Striking
T2G = Tee To Green
DG = Data Golf
Chris Dell's Bonus Best Bets (Tournament Matchups)
Nunez Top South American > Villegas @ Bet365 -188
Baddeley > Champ @ BO +100
Round One Matchups
Sigg > Murray @ BO -125
Baddeley > Tarren @ BO -120
Lingmerth > Crane/Hadley @ BO +155
Norrman > Grant/Cone @ Bet365 +110
CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP BUYS & TOP FADES
TIER 1 - TOP BUYS
Rory +20
Young +16
Rose +15
Hatton +14
Conners +13
Lowry +12
TIER 2 - TOP BUYS
Fitzpatrick +10
Fleetwood +10
Burns +8
Theegala +6
Kuchar +6
*Todd +6
TIER 3 - TOP BUYS
B. Martin +4
Reavie +4
Armour +4
Lingmerth +4
Rai +4
Norrman +3
Roy +3
TIER 4 - TOP BUYS
D. Wu +2
Piercy +2
Stroud +2
Bhatia +2
N. Taylor +2
Cole +2
Glover +2
Bennett +2
Snedeker +2
*R. Moore +2
TIER 1 - TOP FADES
Brehm -16
*Landry -13
TIER 2 - TOP FADES
Kraft -11
Matthews -11
Carey -11
Lamely -11
Crane -11
Higgs -10
Gay -10
TIER 3 - TOP FADES
McGreevy -9
Watney -9
Stadler -9
Atwal -9
Ernst -9
Grant -8
Cone -8
Trainer -8
Bryan -8
Gainey -8
Werbylo -7
Alexander -7
McNeill -7
Travale -7
Ogilvy -7
*Barnes -7
*Atwal -7
*Ernst -7
Block -6
Brown -6
*Noh -6
TIER 4 - TOP FADES
Haas -5
Gligic -5
Champ -5
Schmid -5
Stanley -5
MacDonald -5
R. Hall -5
Creighton -5
Tway -5
*Stuard -5
Tarren -4
Carrera -4
Szirmak -4
Papineau -4
Hearn -4
Kuest -4
Bae -4
Kang -4
Whaley -4
Werenski -3
Dufner -3
D. Kim -3
Murray -3
*Nesbitt -3
*Weir -3
*Villegas -3
TIER 5 - TOP FADES
Hadley -2
Redman -2
Lebioda -2
Schwab -2
Durham -2
Sloan -2
McGirt -2
Wolff -2
Westmoreland -2
*Herman -2
*Knox -2
DataGolf Implied Win Probability
Rory
Hatton
Young
Fitzpatrick
Burns
Lowry
Fleetwood
Rose
Conners
Theegala
NumberFire Win Simulation Model
Rory
Hatton
Fitzpatrick
Young
Rose
Burns
Fleetwood
Theegala
Conners
Lowry
DataGolf Rankings (Field-Adjusted)
Rory
Hatton
Fitzpatrick
Rose
Young
Burns
Fleetwood
Conners
Lowry
Theegala
OWG Rankings (Field Adjusted)
Rory
Fitzpatrick
Burns
Hatton
Young
Fleetwood
Lowry
Theegala
Rose
Conners
Action Network’s Model Rankings
B. Martin
Reavie
Rose
Conners
Hatton
Young
Todd
Fleetwood
Svensson
D. Wu
SG: APP L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Conners
Rose
Rory
Hatton
Lowry
Fairways Gained L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Armour
R. Moore
Lingmerth
Blair
Ghim
Birdie or Better Gained L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Young
Piercy
B. Martin
Conners
Norrman
Proximity 100-125 Yards L24 Rounds (Action Network)
D. Riley
Sigg
Rory
Kuchar
Stuard
SG: PUTT L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Ramey
Ryder
McNealy
Reavie
Noh
SG: APP AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Rory
Lowry
B. Martin
Rose
Hatton
D. Riley
Conners
Knox
Stroud
Roy
Hubbard
Bhatia
Young
–
Higgs
Landry
Haas
McGreevy
Kraft
Wise
Byrd
Werbylo
Grant
Werenski
Long
Brehm
Alexander
H. Hall
Cone
Noh
Ramey
Haley
Gligic
SG: ARG AVG 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Fleetwood
Kuchar
Baddeley
Byrd
Todd
–
Matthews
Champ
Hadley
Duncan
Brehm
Redman
Tarren
Grant
Gligic
Schmid
Kraft
Cone
SG: TOTAL 2022-23 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Hatton
Rory
Fleetwood
Rose
Fitzpatrick
Kuchar
–
McGreevy
Watney
Landry
Matthews
Higgs
Kraft
Grant
Brehm
Haas
Dufner
Lebioda
Trainer
Gligic
Herman
Schwab
Noh
SG: BIRDIE OR BETTER % 2023 (PGA Tour/NumberFire)
Young
Theegala
Bhatia
Wise
Norrman
Hatton
Rose
N. Taylor
Gordon
D. Wu
Burns
B. Martin
H. Hall
B. Wu
Conners
Todd
Lashley
Piercy
Cole
–
Percy
Kraft
Stuard
Landry
Lebioda
Player Decompositions - Baseline Skills (DataGolf)
Rory
Hatton
Fitzpatrick
Rose
Burns
Young
Fleetwood
Conners
Lowry
Theegala
–
Durham
Stadler
D. Kim
Carrera
Carey
Szirmack
Travale
Block
Gay
Papineau
McNeill
Lamely
Atwal
Bryan
Weir
Nesbitt
Crane
Ernst
Ogilvy
McGreevy
Landry
Hearn
Stanley
Brehm
MacDonald
Barnes
Watney
R. Hall
Gainey
Kuest
Bae
Matthews
Kang
Brown
Cone
Dufner
Creighton
Stuard
Trainer
Schmid
Kraft
Herman
Villegas
Werbylo
Knox
Alexander
Grant
Higgs
Gribble
Player Decompositions - Final Course Adjustments (DataGolf)
Rory
Hatton
Young
Fitzpatrick
Burns
Fleetwood
Lowry
Conners
Rose
–
Durham
D. Kim
Stadler
Szirmak
Carey
L. Carrera
Gay
Travale
McNeill
Atwal
Lamely
Crane
Block
Nesbitt
Bryan
Weir
Hearn
Papineau
Ernst
Watney
Ogilby
Landry
Barnes
McGreevy
Stanley
MacDonald
Brehm
Gainey
Stuard
Kang
Brown
Kraft
Bae
Knox
Dufner
Matthews
Herman
R. Hall
Villegas
Cone
Creighton
McGirt
Trainer
Alexander
Schmid
Higgs
Sloan
Werbylo
R. Moore
Player Skill Ratings - Driving Accuracy L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Armour
Rai
R. Moore
Todd
Reavie
Glover
Lingmerth
–
Matthews
Brehm
Tway
Bryan
Noh
Watney
Tarren
Werbylo
Higgs
Whaley
Player Skill Ratings - SG TOTAL L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rory
Hatton
Young
Fitzpatrick
–
Gay
Bryan
Watney
Landry
McGreevy
Stanley
Brehm
Stuard
Player Skill Ratings - SG APP L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rory
Lowy
Young
Conners
Hatton
Rose
Rai
–
Landry
McGreevy
Kraft
Trainer
Higgs
Werbylo
Haas
Brehm
Bryan
Cone
Kang
Brown
Werenski
Stuard
McGirt
Alexander
Schmid
Player Skill Ratings - SG ARG L1-L2 Years (DataGolf)
Matthews
Champ
Query Tool - Driving Accuracy L6 Months (DataGolf)
Armour
Rai
R. Moore
Long
Glover
Todd
Lingmerth
Bennett
Landry
Duncan
–
Carey
Barnes
Watney
Westmoreland
Bae
Lamely
Matthews
Brehm
Pendrith
Kang
Tarren
Noh
Ernst
Malnati
Tway
Whaley
Alexander
Crane
Higgs
Rory
Query Tool - Driving Accuracy L2 Years (DataGolf)
Reavie
Armour
Todd
Rai
Bennett
R. Moore
Stuard
Lingmerth
Herman
Duncan
–
Papineau
Matthews
Travale
Westmoreland
Bryan
Brehm
Lamely
Carey
Noh
Werbylo
Barnes
Tway
Crane
Watney
N. Hojgaard
Query Tool - SG TOTAL L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rory
Fitzpatrick
–
Carrera
D. Kim
Travale
Stadler
Szirmak
Carey
McNeill
Crane
Atwal
Ogilvy
Lamely
Weir
Nesbitt
Bryan
Block
Ernst
Barnes
Papineau
Gay
R. Hall
Kuest
Landry
Gainey
Bae
Creighton
Hearn
Brehm
Query Tool - SG TOTAL L6 Months (DataGolf)
Rory
Haton
Rose
Young
–
Carrera
Carey
Stadler
Atwal
McNeill
Gay
Crane
Szirmak
Hearn
Lamely
Gainey
Landry
Ernst
McGreevy
Bryan
Watney
Weir
Stuard
Stanley
Ogilvy
Knox
MacDonald
Brehm
Villegas
Kraft
Gligic
Cone
Matthews
Brown
Query Tool - SG T2G L6 Months (DataGolf)
Rory
Young
–
Carey
Crane
Gay
McNeill
Villegas
Watney
Barnes
Gainey
Higgs
Atwal
Brown
Kraft
Landry
Stadler
Stuard
Ernst
Lamely
McGreevy
Murray
Noh
Query Tool - SG T2G L2 Years (DataGolf)
Rory
–
Carey
Crane
Stadler
Barnes
McNeill
R. Hall
Travale
MacDonald
Creighton
Lamely
Gay
Block
Trainer
Landry
Atwal
Cockerill
Gainey
Query Tool - SG APP L6 Months (DataGolf)
Snedeker
Rose
–
Gay
Atwal
Carey
Landry
Villegas
Sloan
Ernst
Higgs
Haas
McGreevy
Silverman
Crane
Barnes
Wise
Brown
Stadler
Thorbjornsen
Kraft
Ogilvy
Stuard
Murray
Yuan
Grant
Whaley
Query Tool - SG APP L2 Years (DataGolf)
Nesbitt
Lowry
–
Carey
Crane
Travale
Atwal
McDonald
Gay
Landry
Barnes
Ernst
Trainer
Creighton
Ogilvy
R. Hall
Grant
Werbylo
Lamely
Stadler
Weir
Block
Query Tool - SG ARG L6 Months (DataGolf)
Weir
Barnes
Atwal
Snedeker
Kuchar
H. Hall
Stuard
Todd
Ernst
Villegas
Baddeley
–
Crane
Matthews
Hadley
Gainey
Lamely
Champ
Grant
Murray
Tarren
Aberg
Gligic
Kuest
Cone
Duncan
Brehm
Redman
Kraft
Stanley
McNeill
R. Moore
Query Tool - SG ARG L2 Years (DataGolf)
Weir
Kuchar
–
Nesbitt
Matthews
Aberg
Block
MacDonald
Travale
Carey
Kuest
Champ
Lamely
Grant
Schmid
Stadler
Gainey
Brehm
Cone
Approach Skill: 100-150 Yards L2 Years (DataGolf)
Stroud
Villegas
Rory
Lowry
–
Trainer
Alexander
Champ
Daffue
Brehm
Harrington
Tway
Wolff
Approach Skill: 150-200 Yards L2 Years (DataGolf)
Gay
Landry
Trainer
Haas
Wolff
Higgs
Noh
Alexander
Werenski
Schwab
Baddeley
Cook
Tway
H. Hall
Byrd
Expected Wins PGA Tour (DataGolf)
Rory
TRUE SG 2023 TOTAL (DataGolf)
Rory
TRUE SG 2023 T2G (DataGolf)
Rory
Young
TRUE SG 2023 ARG (DataGolf)
Barnes
TRUE SG 2023 APP (DataGolf)
Lowry
TREND INDEX L1-L4 Months (DataGolf)
Hatton
Rory
Fitzpatrick
Rose
Conners
Fleetwood
Cole
Meronk
Norrman
Lowry
Burns
Young
Aberg
N. Taylor
Kuchar
INJURY REPORT (Establish The Run/Underdog Network)
Todd (shoulder)
Brehm (tricep)
Whaley (undisclosed)
McNealy (shoulder)
L. Griffin (back)
Hahn (neck)
Resources used for this week's article:
Action Network’s Weekly PGA Tour Model Rankings (Matt Vincenzi)
PGA Tour Weekly Course Preview (Ron Klos)
Injury News & Player Notes (Nick DeMott)
NumberFire’s Course Key Stats (Brandon Gdula)
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and editor who been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN, and Yahoo, among other publications. He’s also the co-founder and director of fantasy football/player props content for The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, and more, follow Chris on Twitter @MaddJournalist