By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
The Honda Classic turned out to be a fantastic golf betting finish for our strokes gained ratings model as our overall matchup bets went 17-9-3 (including 6-0-1 on tournament 72-hole matchup bets). All in all we added roughly +5 units in profit and also cashed our late outright winner ticket on Sepp Straka 31:1 following a strong second-round performance that put him on our “top buys” list. Below you will find my list of top buys and top fades from all golfers at the Honda Classic, breaking them down into two different categories: A.) golfers who signal as buys/fades based on round 4 data; and B.) golfers who signal as buys/fades based off all rounds data (rounds 1-2 or rounds 1-4). Keep in mind for the “all rounds data” that some of these golfers only played two rounds before missing the cut. Nonetheless we have a total of 30 golfers to sift through below, including a whopping 22 who made our “top fades” list. We only have 8 golfers on our buy list, however, and will be betting some derivative props on each of them when it comes to tournament finish props, tournament matchups and longshot/outright winners. Without further adieu, let’s dive into our initial card for the Arnold Palmer Invitational below, which starts on Thursday.
I’ll also double back here on Wednesday to check if we have any first round matchup bets to add, as I did not find any as of Monday night while writing this article. The asterisks to the left of a name denotes how many buy/fade threshold that golfer has passed. Those with multiple asterisks are considered stronger buys/fades than other and will be likely bet with bigger unit sizes because of this. The numbers to the right of a name denote the “strokes gained rating” score that we assign based off a golfer’s strokes gained statistics in our model. The score we will use for this weekend will be “strokes gained rating – ball striking,” which takes a golfer’s strokes gained ball striking numbers and then subtracts that golfer’s strokes gained putting numbers. While it’s usually more important to focus on the asterisks and amount of thresholds a golfer passes to make him a stronger buy or fade, it’s also important to use their “strokes gained rating – ball striking” score to determine the strength of a head to head matchup as we go from round to round.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
Overall Top Buys (Using Data From The Honda Classic – All Rounds):
N/A (the golfers who made this list are not in the current Arnold Palmer Invitational field)
Overall Top Buys (Using Data From The Honda Classic – Round 4):
***Straka +3.60
**Woodland +3.19
*Pendrith +2.93
*Horschel +2.72
*Hodges +2.56
*Spaun +2.40
*Ryder +0.97
*Young -1.50
Overall Top Fades (Using Data From The Honda Classic – All Rounds):
****McCumber -5.08 (CUT)
****Wolff -1.67 (CUT)
***Swafford -5.07 (CUT)
***Lahiri -5.06 (CUT)
*Tway -4.09 (CUT)
*Fleetwood -3.62 (CUT)
*Reed -2.73 (CUT)
*Jaeger -2.37
*Z. Johnson -2.17 (CUT)
*Howell -2.13 (CUT)
*M. Thompson -1.18 (CUT)
*Hojgaard -1.11 (CUT)
Overall Top Fades (Using Data From The Honda Classic – Round 4):
*Huh -3.55
*Westwood -2.04
*Rodgers -1.67
*Sloan -1.41
*Kirk -1.26
*Svensson -0.86
*Frittelli -0.18
*Higgo +0.72
*Watney +1.79
*Rai +2.03
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
Outright Winners (0.05 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(0.1 Units) Straka 125:1 @ BO
(0.1 Units) Woodland 70:1 @ Bet365
Horschel 55:1 @ DK
Young 80:1 @ DK
Spaun 200:1 @ Bet365
Ryder 225:1 @ BO
Hodges 200:1 @ DK
Pendrith 250:1 @ DK
= 0.5 Units
First Round Leader (0.05 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(0.1 Units) Straka 90:1 @ BR
(0.1 Units) Woodland 66:1 @ BR
Horschel 55:1 @ DK
Young 75:1 @ DK
Spaun 110:1 @ Bet365
Ryder 110:1 @ Bet365
Hodges 130:1 @ DK
Pendrith 140:1 @ DK
= 0.5 Units
Tournament Finishes (0.25 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(0.5 Units) Straka T40 @ FD +125
(0.5 Units) Woodland T40 @ FD -105
Horschel T40 @ Bet365 -120
Young T40 @ DK +110
Ryder T40 @ FD +175
Spaun T40 @ FD +240
Hodges T40 @ FD +220
Pendrith T40 @ DK +20
= 2.5 Units
Tournament Matchups (0.25 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(1 Unit) Straka > Frittelli @ BO -128
(0.75 Units) Straka > Henley @ FD +140
(0.5 Units) Woodland > Pieters @ FD -118
(0.5 Units) Woodland > Tringale @ BR -114
(0.5 Units) Woodland > Henley @ BO +108
Woodland +1.5 > Henley @ BO -130
Woodland -0.5 > McNealy @ CZ +110
Horschel > Gooch @ Bet365 +100
Horschel > Tringale @ MB -125
Horschel > Hatton @ FD -126
Horschel > Leishman @ FD -112
Horschel > Na @ DK -130
Young > Hoge @ BO -125
Young > Garcia @ FD -102
Young > Bradley @ DK -103
Casey > Fleetwood @ Bet365 -143
Garcia > Fleetwood @ BO -120
Rose > Fleetwood @ FD -118
Gooch > Fleetwood @ FD -126
Burns > Fleetwood @ BR -121
Na +1.5 > Kirk @ BO -135
Na > Kirk @ BO -110
Kim > Kirk @ FD -112
Griffin > Kirk @ DK +105
Fowler > Reed @ MB -125
Power > Reed @ FD -152
Poulter > Westwood @ BO -103
Tringale > Westwood @ FD -150
= 9 Units
First Round Matchups (0.25 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(1.25 Units) Power > Wolff @ BR -129
(0.75 Units) Long > Swafford @ BR -105
(0.75 Units) Straka > Henley @ DK +130
(0.75 Units) Straka > List @ Bet 365 +100
(0.5 Units) Perez +0.5 > Kirk @ BO -115
(0.5 Units) Hossler +0.5 > Rodgers @ BO -130
(0.5 Units) Wise +0.5 > Fleetwood @ BO -125
(0.5 Units) Jones +0.5 > Griffin -110
(0.5 Units) Woodland > K.H. Lee @ BO -120
(0.5 Units) Woodland > Rose @ Bet465 +100
Horschel > Leishman @ BO -110
Horschel > Hovland @ DK +115
Horschel > Kokrak @ Bet365 -110
Hodges > McNealy @ BR +110
Henley > Kirk @ Bet365 -115
Casey > Reed @ BR -152
Rose > Z. Johnson @ BR -148
Willett > Howell @ BR +106
Tringale > Westwood @ DK -135
Pieters > Westwood @ BR -129
Streelman > Fleetwood @ BR +120
McNealy > Fleetwood @ DK -110
= 9.5 Units
3-Ball Matchup Props (0.25 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
(0.5 Units) Three-Ball Tournament, Theegala > Reed/Wolff @ CZ +180
Three-Ball First Round, Kanaya > Svensson/Hojgaard @ CZ +188
Three-Ball First Round, Steele > Watney/Rai @ BO +180
= 1.0 Units
Make/Miss Cut Props (0.25 Units Unless Noted Otherwise):
Fleetwood MISS Cut @ Bet365 +225
Kirk MISS Cut @ FD +210
Straka MAKE Cut @ FD -190
Woodland MAKE Cut @ BetDSI -210
= 1.0 Units
BONUS LEAN - "The Field > Rahm/McIlroy/Hovland/Scheffler @ BO -319"
Full Disclosure: I typically NEVER bet props with this type of high vig/juice. That's unless of course we’re getting ridiculous edge in our favor. Such is the case with this bet, as we’re essentially getting 116 golfers in “The Field” vs. 4 golfers on the other side. I believe the odds on a prop like this should be closer to -600 or higher. Keep in mind there will also be more opportunities to attack this wager as each round moves by, as various sports books will offer different versions of it as the leaderboard changes from round to round. I wouldn’t bet more than a quarter of a unit at a time on these, as there is just too much variance from golf tournament to golf tournament and the tax can be costly with too many losses, but I also do believe there's good value in taking action on nearly 97% of the field here. This doesn’t make our official card for tracking purposes, but I did bet it small personally.
OPENING TOURNAMENT FULL CARD BREAKDOWN:
- 1 tournament 3-ball prop = 0.5 units
- 2 first round 3-ball props = 0.5 units
- 4 make/miss cut props = 1.0 units
- 8 first round leaders = 0.5 units
- 8 outright winners = 0.5 units
- 8 tournament finish props = 2.5 units
- 28 tournament matchup bets = 9 units
- 22 first round matchup bets = 9.5 units
- Total = 24 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie