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Charles Schwab Challenge: Tournament Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of Strokes Gained Ratings from the PGA Championship, click here.

Please Note: The buy/fade golfers listed below are only golfers who competed at last week's PGA Championship and therefore does not encompass the entire field at this weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge. Starting with Round 2 on Friday, and through Round 4 on Sunday, we will use data from the entire field in order to better determine our H2H matchup bets. For now, use this list below as a simple guide as to who we can extract data from that has played in the last 7 days heading into this weekend.

In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for Round 2 of the PGA Championship.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

TOURNAMENT BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

*Collin Morikawa +3.39

*Phil Mickelson +2.95

Matt Kuchar +2.72

Harold Varner +2.64

Jordan Spieth +2.61

*Brian Harman +2.56

*Will Zalatoris +2.42

*Hudson Swafford +2.26

Mackenzie Hughes +2.24

*Joel Dahmen +2.23

*Corey Conners +2.14

*Charley Hoffman +2.05

Tony Finau +2.03

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Ball Striking

*Collin Morikawa +3.54

*Brian Harman +3.49

*Will Zalatoris +3.12

*Hudson Swafford +2.89

*Joel Dahmen +2.69

*Charley Hoffman +2.39

*Phil Mickelson +2.26

*Corey Conners +2.25

*Denotes golfers who qualified as BUYS in both Tee To Green & Ball Striking strokes gained categories.

TOURNAMENT FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

Brian Gay -4.86

Brandon Hagy -3.69

**Justin Rose -3.61

Ryan Palmer -2.90

Adam Long -2.63

Brendan Todd -2.33

Denny McCarthy -2.32

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Ball Striking

Kevin Kisner -3.27

**Justin Rose -2.67

Branden Grace -2.26

Wyndham Clark -2.22

Cameron Tringale -2.06

Matt Jones -2.02

**Denotes golfers who qualified as FADES in both Tee To Green & Ball Striking strokes gained categories.

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