BETTING PREDATORS
  • Home
  • Podcast
  • Discord
  • Newsletter
  • Strategy 
    • Hunting The MLB: Daily Best Bets for Sunday 5/28
    • Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data
    • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
    • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data & Putting Stats
    • Hunting The UFC: Mixed Martial Arts Betting Strategy 101
    • Hunting The Race Track: NASCAR Penalties to Know
    • Hunting The Pitch: How to Bet the Asia Line in Soccer
  • Premium 
    • PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NBA Player Props/Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
  • Tools 
    • Strokes Gained Live Betting Model (PGA Championship)
    • NFL Rookie Consensus Big Board & Prospect Rankings
    • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
  • About 
    • Free Podcasts
    • The Team
  • Promos 
    • $25 OFF: Golf Betting Package
  • …  
    • Home
    • Podcast
    • Discord
    • Newsletter
    • Strategy 
      • Hunting The MLB: Daily Best Bets for Sunday 5/28
      • Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data & Putting Stats
      • Hunting The UFC: Mixed Martial Arts Betting Strategy 101
      • Hunting The Race Track: NASCAR Penalties to Know
      • Hunting The Pitch: How to Bet the Asia Line in Soccer
    • Premium 
      • PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NBA Player Props/Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • Tools 
      • Strokes Gained Live Betting Model (PGA Championship)
      • NFL Rookie Consensus Big Board & Prospect Rankings
      • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
    • About 
      • Free Podcasts
      • The Team
    • Promos 
      • $25 OFF: Golf Betting Package
SUBSCRIBE
BETTING PREDATORS
  • Home
  • Podcast
  • Discord
  • Newsletter
  • Strategy 
    • Hunting The MLB: Daily Best Bets for Sunday 5/28
    • Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data
    • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
    • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data & Putting Stats
    • Hunting The UFC: Mixed Martial Arts Betting Strategy 101
    • Hunting The Race Track: NASCAR Penalties to Know
    • Hunting The Pitch: How to Bet the Asia Line in Soccer
  • Premium 
    • PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NBA Player Props/Best Bets Premium Package 2023
    • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
  • Tools 
    • Strokes Gained Live Betting Model (PGA Championship)
    • NFL Rookie Consensus Big Board & Prospect Rankings
    • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
  • About 
    • Free Podcasts
    • The Team
  • Promos 
    • $25 OFF: Golf Betting Package
  • …  
    • Home
    • Podcast
    • Discord
    • Newsletter
    • Strategy 
      • Hunting The MLB: Daily Best Bets for Sunday 5/28
      • Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data & Putting Stats
      • Hunting The UFC: Mixed Martial Arts Betting Strategy 101
      • Hunting The Race Track: NASCAR Penalties to Know
      • Hunting The Pitch: How to Bet the Asia Line in Soccer
    • Premium 
      • PGA Tour/Golf Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NFL "Early Bird" Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NBA Player Props/Best Bets Premium Package 2023
      • NFL PREMIUM BEST BETS RECORD TRACKER (2021-2023)
    • Tools 
      • Strokes Gained Live Betting Model (PGA Championship)
      • NFL Rookie Consensus Big Board & Prospect Rankings
      • NFL Beat Reporters to Follow on Twitter for all 32 Teams
    • About 
      • Free Podcasts
      • The Team
    • Promos 
      • $25 OFF: Golf Betting Package
SUBSCRIBE

Charles Schwab Challenge: Tournament Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of Strokes Gained Ratings from the PGA Championship, click here.

Please Note: The buy/fade golfers listed below are only golfers who competed at last week's PGA Championship and therefore does not encompass the entire field at this weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge. Starting with Round 2 on Friday, and through Round 4 on Sunday, we will use data from the entire field in order to better determine our H2H matchup bets. For now, use this list below as a simple guide as to who we can extract data from that has played in the last 7 days heading into this weekend.

In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for Round 2 of the PGA Championship.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

TOURNAMENT BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

*Collin Morikawa +3.39

*Phil Mickelson +2.95

Matt Kuchar +2.72

Harold Varner +2.64

Jordan Spieth +2.61

*Brian Harman +2.56

*Will Zalatoris +2.42

*Hudson Swafford +2.26

Mackenzie Hughes +2.24

*Joel Dahmen +2.23

*Corey Conners +2.14

*Charley Hoffman +2.05

Tony Finau +2.03

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Ball Striking

*Collin Morikawa +3.54

*Brian Harman +3.49

*Will Zalatoris +3.12

*Hudson Swafford +2.89

*Joel Dahmen +2.69

*Charley Hoffman +2.39

*Phil Mickelson +2.26

*Corey Conners +2.25

*Denotes golfers who qualified as BUYS in both Tee To Green & Ball Striking strokes gained categories.

TOURNAMENT FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

Brian Gay -4.86

Brandon Hagy -3.69

**Justin Rose -3.61

Ryan Palmer -2.90

Adam Long -2.63

Brendan Todd -2.33

Denny McCarthy -2.32

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Ball Striking

Kevin Kisner -3.27

**Justin Rose -2.67

Branden Grace -2.26

Wyndham Clark -2.22

Cameron Tringale -2.06

Matt Jones -2.02

**Denotes golfers who qualified as FADES in both Tee To Green & Ball Striking strokes gained categories.

Subscribe
Previous
PREMIUM: DFS/DraftKings Top Plays (Thursday, May 27th)
Next
PREMIUM: NBA Player Props We Bet (Thursday, May 27th)
 Return to site
Cancel
All Posts
×

Almost done…

We just sent you an email. Please click the link in the email to confirm your subscription!

OK

    Home
    Subscribe
    Articles
    Contact