By Chris Dell
Key stats and actionable data points for the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. All rankings below are adjusted for ongoing injuries and this week's current field.
What: Charles Schwab Challenge, PGA Tour
Where: Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth TX (Par 70)
When: May 25th-28th, 2023
Previous Winners: Sam Burns (-9), Jason Kokrak (-14), Daniel Berger (-15), Kevin Na (-13), Justin Rose (-20), Kevin Kisner (-10), Jordan Spieth (-17)
How this works: in order to formulate our consensus power ratings, as well as top buys and top fades, we will simply tally up the number of “negative quality” traits and “positive quality” traits that shows up for each golfer throughout this article. After doing that, we will take the net score of “positive traits - negative traits,” which will determine whether a golfer makes our list as a top buy or a top fade. Anyone who scores between -1 to +1 will not be listed in the final power ratings and will be considered, for all intents and purposes, as a "neutral" golfer. Therefore, we will only show top buys who score +2 or higher, and we will only show top fades who score -2 or lower. When it comes to the LIV Tour, please note that there are far less stats/data points publicly available to track for these golfers. Because of this, we will add a specific section for “LIV Top Buys” below our main consensus power ratings. If you have any questions on how I create these weekly consensus power ratings, and how we use them to formulate a majority of our pre-tournament bets, message us on Twitter @BetPredators or send an email to bettingpredators@gmail.com. We’ll do our best to respond in a timely manner.
Please note: these pre-tournament consensus power ratings below are different from our “in-tournament” live betting model, which you can access as part of our Betting Predators premium golf picks package. Our premium picks package also includes all pre-tournament best bets, every single week.
All “negative traits" for players below will be italicized, while all other mentions of player names will be considered as “positive traits". Golfers with an asterisk (*) next to their name means that they have both negative traits + positive traits in their overall statistical profile for this course at Oak Hill Country Club.
Abbreviation key:
SG = Strokes Gained
L24 = Last 24
OWG = Official World Golf
APP = Approach
OTT = Off The Tee
ARG = Around The Green
PUTT = Putting
BS = Ball Striking
T2G = Tee To Green
DG = Data Golf
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CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP BUYS - CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE
TIER 1 - TOP BUYS
Scheffler +36
Hovland +36
Finau +32
Morikawa +28
Spieth +26
Sungjae +19
TIER 2 - TOP BUYS
*Henley +16
Homa +15
Rose +14
Fowler +13
Fleetwood +12
Harman +11
Bezuidenhout +11
Davis +11
Si Woo Kim +10
*Kirk +9
Bhatia +8
*Hoge +8
*Todd +8
*Buckley +8
McCarthy +7
Burns +7
*Putnam +7
TIER 3 - TOP BUYS
Kitayama +5
English +5
Grillo +5
N. Taylor +5
Kuchar +5
*Reavie +5
Straka +4
B. Martin +4
Lower +4
Z. Johnson +4
*Jaeger +4
*K.H. Lee +4
Cole +3
Palmer +3
Carson Young +3
D. Wu +3
Stevens +3
Lingmerth +3
*T. Moore +3
*D. Riley +3
*List +3
Rodgers +2
Horschel +2
Piercy +2
Smalley +2
Eckroat +2
Duncan +2
Hodges +2
Blair +2
*Fox +2
*McNealy +2
*Knox +2
CONSENSUS POWER RATINGS / TOP FADES - CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE
TIER 1 - TOP FADES
Higgs -5
Werenski -5
*Sabbatini -4
*Champ -4
Gribble -3
Compton -3
*Alexander -3
*Donald -3
Higgo -2
Gordon -2
*Frittelli -2
DataGolf Implied Win Probability (Charles Schwab Challenge)
Scheffler
Finau
Spieth
Sungjae
Hovland
Morikawa
Homa
Henley
Kirk
Fleetwood
Rose
Fowler
Burns
Si Woo Kim
McCarthy
Harman
Jaeger
K.H. Lee
Poston
Davis
N. Taylor
Hossler
Todd
Putnam
Herbert
NumberFire Win Simulation Model (Charles Schwab Challenge)
Scheffler
Finau
Morikawa
Hovland
Sungjae
Spieth
Homa
Rose
Fleetwood
Fowler
Henley
McCarthy
Todd
Burns
Kirk
Si Woo Kim
Putnam
K.H. Lee
Davis
Harman
T. Moore
Spaun
N. Taylor
Hoge
Kitayama
DataGolf Rankings (Field-Adjusted)
Scheffler
Finau
Hovland
Sungjae
Morikawa
Spieth
Fleetwood
Rose
Fowler
Henley
McCarthy
Kuchar
Burns
Kirk
Si Woo Kim
K.H. Lee
T. Moore
N. Taylor
Todd
Rodgers
Jaeger
Davis
Buckley
Harman
Hoge
OWG Rankings (Field Adjusted)
Scheffler
Hovland
Homa
Fitzpatrick
Spieth
Finau
Burns
Morikawa
Sungjae
Kitayama
Fleetwood
Rose
Henley
Hoge
Straka
Horschel
Kirk
Harman
Si Woo Kim
English
Fox
K.H. Lee
T. Moore
Herbert
Davis
Betsperts’ Stat Model Rankings (Charles Schwab Challenge)
Hovland
Scheffler
Finau
Fleetwood
Grillo
Rose
Morikawa
Straka
Fowler
Bhatia
Davis
Spieth
Palmer
Bezuidenhout
Cole
Si Woo Kim
B. Martin
Putnam
Kitayama
Henley
Kirk
Homa
Carson Young
K.H. Lee
Buckley
Jaeger
Lashley
Sungjae
Bramlett
McCarthy
Piercy
Reavie
Smalley
D. Wu
Eckroat
Todd
M. Kim
Hoge
Riley
Novak
Action Network’s Model Rankings (Charles Schwab Challenge)
Hovland
Scheffler
Spieth
Finau
Morikawa
Homa
Sungjae
Bezuidenhout
Svensson
Stevens
SG APP L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Spieth
Fowler
Finau
Morikawa
Scheffler
SG OTT L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Buckley
List
Scheffler
Hovland
Sungjae
Par 4’s: 400-450 Yards L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Spieth
Scheffler
N. Taylor
Hovland
Bhatia
Course History L24 Rounds @ Colonial Country Club (Action Network)
Spieth
Finau
English
Harman
Morikawa
SG: Putting Bentgrass L24 Rounds (Action Network)
Bezuidenhout
Todd
McNealy
Lower
Putnam
SG APP L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Finau
Morikawa
Scheffler
Hovland
Bezuidenhout
Fowler
Bhatia
Spieth
Straka
Fleetwood
Opportunities Gained L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
B. Martin
Davis
D. Riley
Scheffler
Reavie
Palmer
Sungjae
Stevens
Hovland
List
Good Drives Gained L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Henley
Duncan
Reavie
Harman
B. Martin
Carson Young
Bezuidenhout
Buckley
Si Woo Kim
Scheffler
Proximity 150-175 Yards L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Piercy
Noren
Si Woo Kim
Straka
Hovland
Knox
Grillo
Van Rooyen
Spieth
Bezuidenhout
Proximity 125-150 Yards L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Kirk
Spieth
Hovland
Homa
Scheffler
Jaeger
Rai
Alexander
Davis
Z. Johnson
Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Hovland
Fleetwood
Cole
Finau
Bhatia
Carson Young
McCarthy
Bramlett
Rose
Course Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Spieth
Finau
Z. Johnson
English
Morikawa
Rose
Harman
Kisner
D. Riley
Hovland
Putting 10-15 Feet L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
D. Wu
Suh
Schenk
Rodgers
Ryder
Davis
Cole
Block
Burns
Lower
“Peaking” Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Bezuidenhout
Grillo
Bhatia
Reavie
Eckroat
“Fading” Recent Form L50 Rounds (Betsperts)
Hoge
Kirk
D. Riley
Lipsky
Van Rooyen
SG: AVG First Round Scoring 2018-2022 (Betsperts)
Scheffler
Rose
Bezuidenhout
Kuchar
Finau
Hovland
Sungjae
Horschel
Lower
Fowler
Henley
Hodges
–
Higgo
Donald
Champ
Novak
SG: AVG +/- First Round Scoring 2018-2022 (Betsperts)
D. Wu
Hodges
Lower
Smotherman
Bezuidenhout
Kuchar
Buckley
Sigg
Sabbatini
Hubbard
Spaun
Kizzire
Hickok
Reavie
Dahmen
–
Champ
Novak
Tarren
Donald
McNealy
Ramey
NeSmith
Rai
Herbert
SG: COURSE TOTAL/ROUND (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Spieth
Finau
Rose
Morikawa
Todd
Hovland
Bezuidenhout
Grillo
Putnam
Harman
Sungjae
SG: APP AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Morikawa
Scheffler
Hoge
Rahm
Finau
Hovland
Fowler
Bhatia
–
Higgs
Sabbatini
Wise
Herbert
SG: OTT AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Scheffler
Buckley
Hovland
Davis
List
–
Kisner
Donald
Sabbatini
Knox
SG: TOTAL Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Scheffler
Finau
Homa
Fleetwood
Sungjae
Fowler
Morikawa
Rose
Hovland
Si Woo Kim
N. Taylor
Spieth
Kirk
Kuchar
–
Sabbatini
Kisner
Higgs
Frittelli
Merritt
Champ
SG: PUTT Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
McNealy
Ryder
Burns
Homa
B. Taylor
Putnam
T. Moore
McCarthy
Wise
Todd
Hall
–
List
Lipsky
Dahmen
Henley
SG: BIRDIE OR BETTER AVG Recent Form (NumberFire/PGA Tour)
Scheffler
Finau
Homa
Hoge
Hovland
Bhatia
Player Skill Decompositions - Overall/Course Fit Adjustments (DG)
Scheffler
Finau
Spieth
Sungjae
Hovland
Morikawa
Homa
Fleetwood
Henley
Kirk
Fowler
Rose
Burns
Si Woo Kim
McCarthy
Jaeger
Harman
–
Block
Westmoreland
Frittelli
Sabbatini
Kisner
Alexander
Gribble
Player Skill Decompositions - Driving Accuracy (DG)
Frittelli
Westmoreland
Tway
Fox
–
Henley
Reavie
Todd
Rai
Player Skill Decompositions - Course History (DG)
Spieth
Z. Johnson
Kirk
Palmer
Sabbatini
Harman
Finau
Kisner
English
Player Skill Ratings - SG Total (DG)
Scheffler
Hovland
Finau
Sungjae
Spieth
Morikawa
Player Skill Ratings - SG OTT/APP (DG)
Scheffler (OTT)
Hovland
List
Buckley
–
Scheffler
Morikawa
Spieth
Finau
Hovland
Player Skill Ratings - Driving Accuracy (DG)
Henley
Reavie
Todd
Rai
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG Total (DG)
Scheffler
Finau
Hovland
Sungjae
Morikawa
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG T2G (DG)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Finau
Sungjae
Spieth
Henley
Hovland
Homa
List
–
Compton
Werenski
Haley
Alexander
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years SG OTT/APP (DG)
Scheffler
List
Hovland
Sungjae
Buckley
Champ
Morikawa
Finau
Norrman
Morikawa
Scheffler
Hovland
Henley
Finau
Hoge
Homa
Spieth
Bhatia
Knox
Fleetwood
–
Donald
Baddeley
Compton
M. Kim
Hammer
Werenski
Werenski
Higgs
Hall
Alexander
Haley
Gribble
Endycott
Sabbatini
Compton
Hossler
Stat Query Tool: L2 Years Driving Accuracy (DG)
Reavie
Todd
Rai
Henley
Morikawa
Lingmerth
Blair
Duncan
Haley
Dahmen
–
Fox
Westmoreland
Frittelli
Tway
Hun An
Course Fit: True SG (DG)
D. Riley
Spieth
Morikawa
Hovland
Finau
English
Bezuidenhout
Z. Johnson
Kisner
Rose
Sungjae
Harman
Scheffler
Putnam
Lingmerth
Davis
Grillo
Ramey
Smalley
B. Martin
Knox
Kirk
McNealy
–
Gordon
Buckley
T. Moore
Spaun
Bramlett
Higgo
Ryder
Sigg
List
M. Kim
Willett
Van Rooyen
Rai
Jaeger
K.H. Lee
Approach Skill: 100-150 yards & 150-200 yards (DG)
Henley
Morikawa
B. Griffin
Spieth
Kitayama
Hovland
Stevens
Hoge
Morikawa
Hovland
Scheffler
–
Champ
Daffue
Tway
Min Woo Lee
Higgs
Alexander
Werenski
Baddeley
B. Griffin
Course Fit: Total SG Approach (DG)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Hovland
Finau
Spieth
Henley
Fowler
Fleetwood
Si Woo Kim
Hoge
Homa
–
Sabbatini
Block
Kisner
Werenski
Higgs
Gribble
Frittelli
Course Fit: Driving Accuracy (DG)
Frittelli
Westmoreland
Tway
Fox
–
Henley
Reavie
Todd
Rai
Course Fit: Total SG Adjustment (DG)
Todd
Lingmerth
Blair
Putnam
Baddeley
Donald
–
Champ
Westmoreland
List
Gordon
Bramlett
Expected Tournament Wins (DG)
Scheffler
Homa
Finau
Kitayama
Hovland
True Strokes Gained 2023: TOTAL (DG)
Scheffler
Finau
Hovland
Morikawa
Fowler
Sungjae
Rose
Homa
True Strokes Gained 2023: T2G (DG)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Finau
Hovland
True Strokes Gained 2023: OTT/APP (DG)
Scheffler
Morikawa
Scheffler
Finau
Trending Table/Recent Form (DG)
Scheffler
Sungjae
Henley
Rose
Hovland
Spieth
Fowler
Buckley
Finau
Fleetwood
Kuchar
Davis
Course History 2018-2022 (DG)
Spieth: 7, 2, 10, 8, 32
Finau: 4, 20, 23, 2
Ryder: CUT, CUT, CUT
Injury Roundup (Underdog Network + Establish The Run)
Malnati (BACK)
Putnam (BACK)
Resources used for this article:
Action Network’s Model Rankings (Matt Vincenzi)
Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club - Preview (Ron Klos)
Research and Key Stat Model (Pat James)
Charles Schwab Challenge Injury News & Player Notes (Nick DeMott)
NumberFire’s Course Key Stats (Brandon Gdula)
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and editor who been published in The New York Times, New York Daily News, ESPN, and Yahoo, among other publications. He’s also the co-founder and director of fantasy football/player props content for The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, and more, follow Chris on Twitter @MaddJournalist