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    Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

    Chris Dell breaks down strokes gained statistics from his live betting model

    · Chris Dell,Golf,PGA

    By Chris Dell

    @MaddJournalist

    To view my free live betting model and "Strokes Gained Scores" calculated each round, click here

    Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained off the tee strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and strokes gained tee-to-green.

    The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach - as well as off the tee, ball-striking, and tee-to-green - are much "stickier" statistics which better indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment.

    Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1.0 or higher (rounded up from 0.95 if needed), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1.0 or lower (rounded down from -0.95 if needed). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG SCORES combine to equal +1.0 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG SCORE is +0.65 and Golfer B's SG SCORE is -0.50. Our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.10. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups by using our "top fades" list and working my down to all golfers who have a -0.45 or SG SCORE or worse. This isn't always the case, however, as there is sometimes value in betting based off our top buys as well. I typically decide on which strategy to use depending on course predictability and other situational course factors, which can be found in greater detail on DataGolf.com and other websites.

    For more on this strategy, just read this free article.

    Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

    • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
    • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
    • Strokes Gained: Putting
    • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
    • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

    (BONUS) Top-Rated Matchup Bets: Round 3
    +2.54 Scheffler > Burns @ Bovada -200
    +2.31 Piercy > Ramey @ Bovada -115
    +2.31 Hun An > B. Griffin @ Bovada -105

    RD3 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores (All Rounds Data)
    Rose +1.89
    Scheffler +1.52
    Hun An +1.40
    English +1.29
    Hodges +1.03
    Hubbard +1.02


    RD3 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores (Round 2 Data Only)
    English +1.86
    Scheffler +1.79
    Hun An +1.56
    Shelton +1.55
    Rose +1.45
    List +1.40
    Morikawa +1.16
    Hubbard +1.13
    Haley +1.01
    Hodges +0.98
    Grillo +0.97
    Suh +0.95

    RD3 Top Fades - Strokes Gained Scores (All Rounds Data)
    Ramey -1.01

    RD3 Top Fades - Strokes Gained Scores (Round 2 Data Only)
    Ramey -1.52
    Putnam -1.16
    Hoge -1.14
    Straka -1.07
    Smotherman -1.05
    Horschel -1.02

    *All golfers with an asterisk to the left of their name have at least buy trait AND at least one fade trait, OR they have a buy/fade strokes gained score overall but have zero other buy or fade traits to go along with that strokes gained score. Moreover, these are weaker buys/fades compared to others in my model.

    For full access to all of my live betting picks for each round, check our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which also includes all of our pre-tournament best bets and longshot picks for first round leader, outright winner and nationality/group props. You can save 50% by subscribing to our annual betting pass here.

    Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

    Strokes Gained Putting

    Strokes Gained Ball Striking

    Strokes Gained Tee To Green

    Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

    Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

    SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score

    BS = Ball Striking

    OTT = Off The Tee

    APP = Approach

    PUTT = Putting

    ARG = Around The Green

    T2G = Tee To Green

    Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com

     

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