By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 22-21
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
2020 Weekly Column Record (Chris' Props + Sleepy's Bonus Prop):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
2020 Weekly Podcast Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
2020 Podcast + Column Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Total = 173-121 (58.8%)
The vig has moved considerably on DK/Caesars and a few other books on this. Lazard went without a single target on SNF in Week 2, after grabbing 2 for 16 in GB's opener and getting pushed aside in favor of MVS when it comes to routes runs, targets and snaps this season. The rookie Amari Rodgers and TE Tonyan/RB Jones are all nipping at his heels even for the leftover scraps from Aaron Rodgers. Lazard's projection falls in just under 20 yds for Week 3, and even that might be too high based off last year. Buy price: 27.5
(2U) KJ Osborn OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards ~ AND ~ OVER 3.5 Receptions @ BetMGM -115 / -105
Full unit on each prop for me here for the classic double dip! These lines are all simply too low for the second-year breakout WR candidate in Osborn, whose firmly entrenched as MIN's third best option in the offense in their new 3 WR set scheme next to Justin Jefferson/Thielen. The Vikings also rank fifth in average combined points (59) after finishing third in 2020 (56.6), and now Seattle comes to town ranking 13th fastest in situation-neutral pace and seventh in no-huddle rate. Case in point: we're most likely to see a ton of fantasy goodness in this Week 3 matchup with Minnesota's backs against the wall and trying to avoid an 0-3 start, in addition to the possibility of having no Dalvin Cook or a very limited Dalvin Cook in the backfield. Osborn has turned 15 targets into 12 receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown in two games as Cousins has not hesitated to rely on the young wideout. Osborn has a good chance to make it three straight weeks of top 20 PPR performances AND three straight games posting 5+ catches, 6+ targets and 76+ yards. Again, don't be surprised to see this line adjusted 50+ at the opener in Week 4 after this Sunday. Buy price: 4.5/46.5
Split 1.5 U between the two props here, since we missed out on the initial opening number of 57.5 and want to mitigate the -135 vig/juice here as much as possible with the -135. Steve Rieder and I discussed Sutton in detail on our deep dive recap podcast this past Tuesday and the fact remains that Sutton is coming off a game in which he saw a67% air yards share and went 12-9-159 (35.3% target share) even in a positive game script with the Broncos not needing to force the issue offensively. Sutton's 258 air yards in Week 2 were the single-highest total in a game this year in the entire NFL. After injury/recovery concerns heading into this season he looked healthy, he's the only true WR threat in this offense following the high ankle sprain that sent Jerry Jeudy to IR. This is a new alpha role for Sutton in this offense, with 30%+ target shares set to become the new norm. Buy price: -140/66.5 yds
(1.5U) Matthew Stafford OVER 302.5 Passing Yards ~ AND ~ OVER 2.5 Passing TD's @ FD -114 / Bet365 +180
Full unit on the yards and half unit on the TD's. Other books had this lined earlier this week at right around 308.5/309.5, but this is one prop where the projections just can't get it right. We have to look at this prop situationally and contextually in regards to Sean McVay and what his past offenses have done while facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' stout rush defense. In 2020 Jared Goff/Sean McVay went 39-51-376-3 @ Tampa (WIN, 27-24). In 2019 Jared Goff/Sean McVay went 45-68-517-2 vs. Tampa (LOSS, 55-40). McVay knows he cannot run the ball against Tampa, and he's showed us with his actions what the game plan will be: pass, and pass some more. McVay's first opportunity to showcase his new signal caller comes in Week 3 as Tampa comes to town having already allowed big passing days to Dak in Week 1 (42-58-403-3) and even the stuck-in-cement-footed Matt Ryan in Week 2 (35-46-300-2). Rams starting RB Darrell Henderson is looking like he's not going to play, and even if he does he'll be limited/less than 100%. Sony Michel can only do so much. The next RB on the depth chart is a dude named Jake Funk who is a converted linebacker to running back from his college days. Even looking back to Stafford's last game personally against Tampa Bay he posted a passing line of 36-44-381. We're getting a discount of 6+ yards on this prop by comparing shops. This is the best opportunity to take advantage of the current situation in the market for me. With the way Brady's been able to move the ball, in addition to a more than healthy 55.5 over/under, we have all the ingredients we need for Stafford to go over his passing yards, passing TD's, pass attempts AND completions. Shop around for the best juice you can find on each of these props to maximize your EV. Buy price: 310.5 / +225
(1.5U) Cooper Kupp OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards @ FD -114
Kupp's usage has been unmatched throughout the entire NFL this season, as he just capped his second straight game with a monstrous 38% target share, posting 11 targets for 9-163-2 in just one game. In Week 3 we get a home stand and Tampa Bay's funneling pass defense which is stout at stopping the run and not very good defending the pass, especially receivers like Cupp. The Bucs allowed 6-5-73 to de-facto ATL slot receiver Kyle Pitts (where he runs a majority of his routes) and gave up 15-7-104 and 17-13-139 to both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, respectively, in Week 1. A healthy 55.5 point over/under and tight spread indicate plenty of points to be score on both sides this weekend, and it could simply just be a matter of time before Kupp's prop line starts getting released around 80+ due to his elite rapport with "breakfast buddy" and new signal-caller Matthew Stafford in this newly revamped Los Angeles Rams offense. This line just might open 80.5 or higher in Week 4. Buy price: 78.5 (half unit up to 83.5)
(1.5U) Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 Receptions ~ AND ~ OVER 5.5 Receptions @ FD -145 / @ FoxBet +140
Split your 1.5 unit bet in half on this. I have Boyd projected for roughly 9.5 targets/6.5 receptions due to the absence of Tee Higgins and the Bengals projected to be trailing (negative game script = more passing opportunities. Higgins leaves behind 7.5 targets per game and 5 receptions per game, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have been torched in the slot by the likes of Cole Beasley/Stefon Diggs (26-17-129) and Hunter Renfrow/Darren Waller (14-10-122). The Cincinnati Bengals simply don’t have options to throw to outside of Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. No TJ Watt and a depleted LB core makes this an auto fire for me. Boyd’s struggles vs PIT in the past were due to Mike Hilton playing the slot. Guess who Hilton plays for now? Buy price: 4.5 (-150), 5.5 (+100)
Sony Michel UNDER 58.5 Rushing Yards @ DK -115
Since the start of last season, the Bucs' defense is first vs. RB's in rushing yards per game (58.7), yards per carry (3.3) and rushing touchdowns allowed (9). Regardless of whether Henderson would've played this game or not, we were always looking to attack the unders for the Bucs' opposing tailbacks. Last year Sean McVay opted to throw 51 times to just 16 running back carries (for 40 yards between Henderson, Akers and Brown) despite the Rams actually leading for a majority of the game (they won 27-24). In 2019? It was the same story for the pass-happy McVay, who let Goff sling it 68 (!) times in a negative/trailing game script for L.A. while Todd Gurley had just 5 carries for 16 yards (10 carries for 30 yards total for the Rams in that game). Buy price: 54.5 (half unit to 49.5)
Russell Wilson UNDER 37.5/36.5 Pass Attempts @ PointsBet -149 / Pinnacle -103
Half unit on each for one full unit, although I prefer the reduced vig for one attempt lower here. Wilson's efficiency continues top the NFL charts in 2021, as he's needed just 23 and 29 attempts (this game included two attempts in overtime, too, which still make it only 31) through two games in order to throw for nearly 600 passing yards and a 6-0 TD/INT ratio. The Vikings secondary simply poses no threat to Russ & Co in Week 3, after having allowed a very efficient regular season opener to Joe Burrow (20-27-261-2) and a hyper-efficient passing line of 29-36-400-3 to Kyler Murray in Week 2. Another boost here lies within the projected pace of this game, which could be much slower than some anticipate: the Seahawks have allowed 71 and 83 (74, overtime-adjusted) plays so far this year, while only running 108 total snaps through two weeks (Russ' elite efficiency at work) while the Vikings, on the other hand, ran the ball at a 56% clip despite being in a shootout with Arizona. Buy price: 35.5
Michael Carter OVER 6.5 Receiving Yards @ DK -120
Can also get this line at -107 at Pinnacle right now. The rookie Carter saw a big bump in playing time in Week 2 in a tough matchup vs New England, increasing his snaps, routes, carries and targets. While he still remains in an ugly three way committee, he also still profiles as the teams clear cut top receiving back and faces another negative game script in Week 3 against another solid defense in the Denver Broncos. Carter’s 5 targets, 3 catches and 43 receiving yards through 2 games doesn’t seem like all that much (5-3-43) but it puts him at about triple of what the current line is to hit the over here. Ty Johnson has just 3-1-11 in that span. Tevin Coleman? Not a single target this year. We expect the routes/targets for Carter to continue to grow for the talented rook. Buy price: 8.5 yards
(1.5U) James Conner UNDER 3.5 Receiving Yards ~ AND ~ Under 10.5 Receiving Yards @ FanDuel -114 / @ FoxBet -175
Full unit on the 3.5 and half unit on the 10.5 rogue line FoxBet put out given the ridiculous vig/juice here. James Conner hasn't had a single target all season and this game script heavily favors Arizona, meaning less overall routes and passes to the RB's. Edmonds is the receiving back in this Cardinals backfield anyways. We cashed under 1.5 receptions last week for Conner without much of a sweat, and although his receptions are no longer available to bet under for, this is a very similar bet. Even if Conner gets his first catch of the season here, then there’s still a chance it goes for negative yardage or no gain. If you can alt line this down and get plus money on a prop builder, even better. Don't be surprised to see his receiving props removed completely come Week 4. Buy price: 0.5
Mike Williams has outpaced teammate Keenan Allen in both targets (22-21) and receptions (15-13) through two games to start the year. A guy who was once considered "boom or bust" has been unleashed in Joe Lombardi's new LAC offense as Williams' route tree has seen him line up repeatedly in the slot and short areas of the field to take advantage of his massive 6'4" 218 pound frame. Williams might not just be the clear cut WR1 yet, but he's in a 1A/1B role to say the least. Come Week 3 this Sunday we get another juicy 55.5 over/under with the Chargers coming as +6.5 road dogs, implying a negative game script and additional passing opportunities for Williams to hit this absurdly low prop line. Williams' 82 and 91 yards in Weeks 1-2 are the new normal, but we're getting a discount here based off a completely different role/different quarterback/different offensive coordinator in the past. Let's take advantage before it's too late. Williams is experiencing a breakout campaign in 2021. Buy price: 68.5 yards (half unit up to 72.5)
Fields' 10 rushing attempts for 31 yards (compared to just 13 dropbacks) against the Cincinnati Bengals (AND in a positive game script) AND IN ONE HALF OF ACTION tells us all we need to know about the electric rookie QB. Fields ran the ball 10+ times in 4 of 6 games to close his collegiate career in the regular season for Ohio State (15-54, 15-78, 13-104 and 12-35) and is no stranger to taking off and scrambling, especially now given that he's healthier than he was for the Buckeyes toward's the end of last season. He ran the ball 11 times for 92 yards in the preseason despite the preseason being a place we typically look for mobile quarterbacks to practice their throwing mechanics and reads. All this goes to say is that the Cleveland Brown's pass rush should wreak havoc on the Bears' OL in this game and with the Bears as +7.5 dogs we expect Fields to use his legs early and often in his debut. Buy price: 9.5
Darnell Mooney OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards @ Bet365 -110
Mooney's new role in this Chicago Bears offense has gone relatively unnoticed/under-appreciated through two weeks. Gone are the days he strictly runs burner routes down the field with Mitch Trubisky/Nick Foles throwing ducks his way. Mooney is being utilized in all areas of the field in 2021, and we saw that materialize in Week 2 as the second-year wideout caught 6 of 8 targets for a team-high 66 yards and left a few close/potential big plays on the field. Mooney is tied with Allen Robinson in targets (15) through Week 2 and leads A-Rob 92 to 59 in total yards, in addition to 11 to 5 receptions and an 8.4 to 7.4 yards per catch clip. He's now averaging 7.5 targets per game, facing a negative game script in Week 3 is being schemed-up off play action as well as quicks/screens to give him opportunities in space. When Fields entered the game for Andy Dalton in Week 2 his first pass attempt turned into an 11-yard completion to Mooney and ended up targeting Mooney on 4 of his 13 pass attempts, good for a solid 31% share. If this trend even halfway holds up then we're looking at a line that could be 20 yards too low here. Big play potential, plus Mooney's separation ability and his chance for long receptions if we get secondary breakdowns due to Fields scrambling, are all the more reasons to bet on him clearing this low total on Sunday afternoon. I'm not worried about the questionable tag here. If he plays, he plays fully. Buy price: 42.5
Baker Mayfield UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts @ PointsBet -115
Baker has attempted 28 and 21 passes through two games and now gets a home stint against rookie Justin Fields making his NFL starting debut. Chicago has operated at the 11th-slowest situation-neutral pace, moving deliberately during their Week 2 win (fifth slowest) while their two games as a whole are averaging the fourth-fewest combined plays and seeing the Bears handing off at the sixth-highest rate while games are close. Cleveland already leads the league in situation-neutral run rate (their situation-neutral pace is faster only than the Broncos) and Browns games are averaging the third-fewest combined snaps (116). Baker went under this total in 10 of 16 regular season games last year, and with a modest total of 45.5 and a massive advantage for the Browns' defense in this game (in addition to OBJ playing his first game in almost a year, and still no Jarvis Landry) I expect Cleveland to continue to rely on their defense + run game to secure the victory and improve to 2-1. If Baker couldn't get past 28 attempts in Week 1's shootout with the Chiefs, I'd be very surprised if he even came to close to cracking 30 in this one, and the fact the Bears have allowed under this total to both Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford so far this year is just icing on the cake for us. Buy price: 30.5
This line opened at 33.5 juiced to the over, and we have Slayton projected for the mid-50's in yardage. Whether Evan Engram returns to this or not is irrelevant. Slayton is locked into a downfield role with Golladay on the opposite side and Shepard/the TE's on the inside. We get a nice 47.5 o/u total with the softest secondary the Giants have played by far this season to date. Slayton has 6-3-54 (long of 33) vs. Washington and 7-3-65 (long of 42) vs. Denver and is a young ascending talent in this league. With Jones looking healthy and semi-competent throwing downfield, in addition to a plus matchup, we're willing to buy in for Week 3 in what could be a back and forth scoring affair between the Giants/Falcons, and we know we only need one play to cash this over. Buy price: 38.5 yards
Ty'Son Williams OVER 56.5 rushing yards @ Caesars -110
This is a line we mentioned being ready to attack on our NFL Week 2 recap podcast after Ty'Son once again emerged as the Ravens' most talented and most efficient running back, going for 77 yards on 13 carries after his career debut of 65 yards on 9 carries in Week 1. And we get the dream matchup for the second-year Williams in Week 3 as the Ravens visit Detroit as -9 point road favorites in what projects to be a massively positively game script for Baltimore. We expect Williams' big-play explosiveness to continue in this smash spot and love him as a high upside DFS darling as well, especially after the Lions were gashed by Elijah Mitchell (19-104) and Aaron Jones (115 total yards) to start the season. This could be Ty'Son's breakout game. Buy price: 63.5
Hockenson's #1 receiving role in this Lions offense was cemented in Week 2 when he hauled in 8 of 9 targets for 66 yards on Monday Night Football, one week after catching 8 of 11 targets for 97 yards. Enter the Ravens in Week 3, a game in which the Lions will be forced into a negative, pass-happy game script early as +9 point home dogs. Baltimore has been eaten alive by tight ends through two weeks, giving up 19-10-105 to Darren Waller in Week 1 and 8-7-109 to Travis Kelce this past Sunday night. I expect the future line for Hockenson be 6.5 at minimum due to the Lions' situation as constant underdogs and 22% target share continuing to grow, especially late in games in junk time. The matchup and potential for garbage time are too hard to ignore here. Buy price: -130
This is one I just can't get away from. Stefon Diggs has 258 air yards through two weeks, which was good for seventh most in NFL prior to MNF. He has over 100 air yds in each of his first two weeks, and that's even with a Week 2 in which he essentially played one half in the Bills' 35-0 rout of Miami and still came away with 8 targets. In week 1 he had 9 catches on 13 targets. Washington's secondary has allowed high catch performances to opposing WR1's, giving up 10-9-94 to Sterling Shepard in Week 2 and big lines to both Keenan Allen 13-9-100 and Mike Williams 12-8-82. Last year this line was set consistently at 7.5 and for good reason, as Diggs closed the 2020 regular season with 8 straight games of 7+ receptions, including 6 of 8 with 9+ receptions. This is a buy low opportunity in a great matchup for one of the NFL's best receivers/route runners at plus money. No brainer play here. Buy price: -120
James White OVER 32.5 receiving yards @ FD -115
White is the New England's clear cut #1 option in this offense regardless of game script, surpassing this low yards threshold in both games with receiving lines of 7-6-49 and 6-6-45 in Weeks 1-2. White's 25.5% target share trails only slot man Jakobi Meyers, but his total receiving yards (94) and receptions (12) actually lead the team. This Saints defense faced a similar RB foe in Week 2, allowing 6-5-65 to Christian McCaffrey in the passing game and even allowing 3 catches for 20 yards in seemingly less than one half of real action in Week 1 against Green Bay. New Orlean's run defense is still above average, but they've been known to allow leaks in the passing game to RB's, and with the Pats still leaning on White as the safety valve for their rookie QB, we expect White to challenge for the team lead in receiving yards once again in Week 3. White in one-on-one coverage will get it done. Buy price: 35.5
The juice on this one is tough to swallow, I get it, but I believe this line will become 5.5 in the next 24 hours being that it's right now 2 a.m. ET and props came out super late Monday night just a few hours ago. Cooks caught 4 balls for 28 yards in the second half alone with Davis Mills under center and finished with 9 catches on 14 targets for the game. A massive negative game script could be here on TNF with Houston as +7.5 home dogs (could see even more steam come CAR's way too). Nico Collins is out for a few weeks, as is Tyrod. Mills threw 10 total times to Cooks in the second half, but multiple plays were called dead due to Cooks drawing CLE penalties in the secondary. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cooks flirt with a 40%+ target share/air yards share in this one after leading the NFL with a whopping 14 targets + 68% air yards share in Week 2. I'll bet on talent to win out, as Cooks is the clear WR1 in this offense, on a short week and with a rookie QB making his first start at home. Look for HOU to scheme up easy looks for their undisputed #1 option. Buy price: -150 at 4.5 (current line) or take plus money only on 5.5 receptions for a pizza bet (half unit max; no best bet at 5.5)