It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out anywhere from one, two or three (or more!) of the favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, COVID-19 news etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week below. Make sure to also tune into our weekly Betting Predators Money Picks / Player Props podcast, which drops on the weekend, where Sleepy J and I run through our player prop betting process, as well as favorite plays, for each game on the upcoming NFL Sunday main slate.
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, BetDSI, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 70-58
- Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 5-3
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Total: 75-61 (55.1%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Total = 11-7 (61.1%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 81-65 (55.5%)
(NEW) Josh Reynolds - Over 3.5 receptions (DraftKings +112): We mention the numbers to attack against the Seattle Seahawks secondary below (Spoiler: we are also on Kupp and Woods overs on yards), but my third favorite prop in this game and this Rams passing attack would be the soft number of 3.5 receptions for Josh Reynolds in a potential L.A. smash spot offensively. Opponents are passing at the fourth-highest situation neutral-rate against Seattle, as per Establish The Run's Pat Thorman, while Seattle games also feature the second-most combined plays (137.9) and most total points (64.6). In fact, a a Seattle game hasn't had less than 53 total points all year, with all but two games getting to 60+. Reynolds actually has more targets than Robert Woods over the last three weeks, too, a span in which he is seeing 88% of snaps, 84.3% routes run, 18% of targets (7 per game) and 141 yards. Reynolds' 14.2 yard aDOT bodes well for this plus matchup, in possibly the highest scoring game of the main slate.
(NEW) Giovani Bernard - Over 9.5 carries (DraftKings -139): It's not often that you see a "starting" NFL running back projected for less than 10 carries in a game, but here we are. Look, I get it, Bernard profiles as more of a pass-catching back than anything else and we really don't want to test that Pittsburgh front four and their run defense all too much. But let's look at the basic math and numbers here. Bernard has 15 and 13 carries over the last two weeks while filling in for the injured Mixon, and that's even with Samaje Perine cutting into his overall touches. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, hasn't been playing up to their elite defensive form as of late, evidenced by allowing 27 running back carries to Ezekiel Elliott (18 carries) and Tony Pollard in Week 9. Dobbins (15 carries), Edwards (16), Henry (20), Hunt (13), Sanders (11), D. Johnson (13), Gordon (19) and Barkley (15) were all lead backs, some in committees, who all saw double digit carries. Extra wind in Pittsburgh makes me like this even more. I believe this line is wrong.
Keenan Allen - Over 6.5 receptions (DraftKings -134): The penultimate target hog, Keenan Allen has ripped through six games healthy with Justin Herbert under center and has seen at least 10 targets in every one of those games, averaging 9.3 catches for 97.5 yards. Allen leads the NFL in targets per game (12.3) and his Week 10 opponent, the Miami Dolphins, have seen the third-highest target share to wide receivers (62.5%). Allen should largely avoid potential shadow coverage from Xavien Howard in this matchup due to his versatility of being able to move into the slot on a regular basis. Allen in fact runs 45% of his routes in the slot and sees 35% of his overall targets there. Miami was burned by Cooper Kupp for 11 catches on 20 targets just two weeks ago, albeit in an extremely negative game script for the Rams, and Allen profiles as a similar slot receiver but with more size and better route-running ability. I believe his reception line should be set at 7.5 here, so see if you can get anything less than that.
Diontae Johnson - Over 49.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -108): Diontae just continues to get disrespected by the betting public and the sports books alike. The Steelers' unquestioned number one target has seen 10, 13, 15 and 10 targets for a massive 29% target share in his four full healthy games this year, and he has also posted a team-high 30%+ air yards share in 2020 despite playing in his first season with Ben Roethlisberger. Ben, however, is looking to Diontae early and often every week, and despite there being three quality receivers in this Steelers offense, I am happy to take the best value in getting the lowest number on Diontae compared to JuJu Smith-Schuster (61.5) and Chase Claypool (50.5). Diontae in fact should be the one with the highest receiving yard prop total, and until the books adjust, I'm continuing to fire on the team's most talented - and most under-appreciated - wide receiver in town. Johnson's Week 10 opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, are also allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 55.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -120/-110): It's been a hot minute since we've seen the talented rookie Brandon Aiyuk on a football field, and I believe the sports books here again have forgotten to give a budding young talented wideout the respect he deserves. Aiyuk ran a route on 95%+ of dropbacks with a 24.4% team target share in his last game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8 before landing on the COVID list and missing Week 9. Aiyuk totaled a team-high 10 targets, eight catches and 91 receiving yards in that divisional showdown despite doing most of his damage in the second half and with a backup quarterback. This was also just one week after posting career highs with a 7-6-115 line against the New England Patriots with Jimmy Garoppolo on a bum ankle. Aiyuk's talent will be on full display in Week 10 against an overrated Marshon Lattimore and with the 49ers projected for a negative game script and potential for garbage time.
Jerry Jeudy - Over 58.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -125): This has to be my favorite prop of the week. I've talked about since recording our Week 9 Recap pod last Sunday, I talked about it again on our Week 10 preview pod Wednesday, and again on our Week 10 Money Picks/Player Props pod on Friday. Jeudy leads the league in air yards over the last two weeks and gets another prime matchup against a soft Las Vegas secondary in Week 10. Jeudy has now totaled a whopping 22 targets and 341 air yards over the last two weeks, with 42% of those targets coming with him lined up on a linebacker or safety in primary coverage. In Week 9, 33% of those targets were off play-action, furthering his versatile role in this Broncos offense. Jeudy also has eight targets of 20-plus yards in this span, and he ran a route on 89% of dropbacks in Week 9 en route to a 30% team target share. Believe it or not, this was only second week where Jeudy's targets were deemed "catchable," signaling an even bigger breakout could be on the horizon for the rookie receiver.
Cooper Kupp - Over 69.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): I could write a dissertation on all of the research and statistics that shows just how historically bad this Seattle Seahawks secondary has been all year. I'm sure you've heard some of this week, but a few of the notable numbers that stick out to me the most are that Seattle allows the league's most plays per game (73.6) and the third-most points per game. Case in point: teams are pushing the pace, with success, because Russell Wilson is firing back and scoring touchdowns on the other side with solid efficiency. Now to the Rams, who are fresh off a bye despite Cooper Kupp dealing with a wrist injury. I don't expect that to limit his work in this matchup, based off beat reporters' notes throughout the week, and he leads Robert Woods in target share on the season, 24.4% to 20.6%. Seattle is allowing 300+ yards more than any other team to slot receivers, ranking dead last in that area, and are allowing the most receiving yards in general by far (22 rec / 279.5 yards).
Robert Woods - Over 59.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -143): In addition to this up-tempo, pass-funnel matchup between NFC West foes, it's notable that the Rams have passed much more over the last month (63%) than they had over the first five weeks of the 2020 season (53%). That trend should again hold true in Week 10, facing Seattle's ninth-ranked DVOA run defense and 29th DVOA pass defense. Although Woods checks in with 17 targets less than Kupp this season on the whole, we're still seeing opponents target wide receivers against the Seahawks at a league-high 66.9% clip while Goff in general also targets his wide receivers (62.3%) well above the league average. Wideouts also have a league-high 71.8% catch rate against Seattle, who will again be without Shaquille Griffin this week. Woods is still a top two option for Goff in this passing attack, and the Rams have averaged a healthy 33.6 points per game in their last five outings with Pete Carroll & Co. I'm firing up Woods AND Kupp with confidence in this shootout spot.
John Brown - Over 47.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): "Smoke" revenge game alert! John Brown is fully healthy and back on his deep threat, play-action passing threat grind. Brown torched the Seahawks for 11-8-99 last week and we've now see that with Brown healthy in this offense he's still receiving north of 20% targets in this high volume passing attack. Stefon Diggs will draw the likely shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson in this spot, and while I'm absolutely not betting any Diggs unders today - his speed and overall talent makes him fully capable of beating Peterson 1-on-1 - I am taking the guy opposite on the perimeter in Brown, who gets a nice matchup lined up against Dre Kirkpatrick, who has been anything but stellar in 2020 in coverage. According to Establish The Run's Pat Thorman's "Snaps and Pace" column, ARI games average the fourth-most combined plays (135.4) and an NFL-high 142.3 plays over the last four weeks. Fire me up some Smoke here, especially with his prop line being almost 30 yards less than that of Stefon Diggs.
Christian Kirk - Over 50.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -130): Same potential shootout spot, same handicap as I mentioned above. On the Arizona side of things we now have DeAndre Hopkins potentially drawing a lot of coverage from Tre'Davious White in this matchup, and I expect Kirk to benefit from that. Kirk's usage has been on the rise as of late, with at least five catches and eight targets in his past two games and at least five catches and seven targets in three of his last four games, the only one with low volume being Arizona's blowout over the Dallas Cowboys in which Kyler Murray completed just nine passes. Kirk did catch two of those passes for two touchdowns in that game though still, and his explosiveness as a deep threat (17.4 yards per catch) has been evident, tallying long receptions of 56, 80 and 49 yards this season. We've seen teams have success throwing the ball on Buffalo outside of White's coverage, and I expect Kyler to go right back to the well with Kirk as well in Week 10. And to the well I will follow.
Terry McLaurin - Over 75.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): The man opposing defensive backs call Scary Terry has at least seven catches in his last three games and now ranks fifth in the NFL in targets per game (9.6) and air yards share (46.6%). It simply doesn't matter who is under center for Washington, because at this point we are simply betting on McLaurin's talent to prevail and make big plays. He also leads all wideouts in yards after the catch (367) and gets the Lions' Desmond Trufant in shadow coverage in Week 10, a cornerback who allows an above-average catch rate and one we do not fear in this matchup. McLaurin beat James Bradberry to the tune of 7-115-1 in Week 9 in Washington's loss to the New York Giants and the Lions offer a much softer matchup overall, having allowed the seventh-most completions of 20+ yards (29). I have McLaurin ranked accordingly as a top 10 fantasy option this week, and his ceiling makes for a contrarian, high-ceiling DFS play who could easily go for 100+ and multiple scores in Week 10.
Antonio Gibson - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 15.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -103/DraftKings -112): Another week, another Washington Football Team double dip running back prop. And another checkdown king type of quarterback in Alex Smith enters the fold for Washington in Week 10 as well, who has now targeted his running backs on 43% (!) of his passes, albeit in a limited sample. While Gibson's counterpart, J.D. McKissic saw 14 targets last week AND gets a revenge game against his former Detroit Lions, it is Gibson whose prop numbers are severely deflated just one week after hitting the overs on both 2.5 receptions and 17.5 receiving yards. Gibson also had five grabs for 24 yards in the first game Smith took over when Allen left with an injury against the Rams. Last week he still added three catches for 35 yards despite being benched for a large stretch of the game after losing a fumble. I hesitate to believe the "Football Team" will not look to get Gibson involved here, and we simply don't need much to hit these.
J.D. McKissic - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 30.5 receiving yards (FanDuel +124/FanDuel -110): McKissic's old team, the Detroit Lions, rank a paltry 29th in overall receiving points per game allowed to opposing running backs (13.5) and his quarterback this week, Alex Smith, is also one week removed from averaging a comical 3.5 average depth of target in Week 9. McKissic now ranks fourth among all NFL running backs with 34 catches this season, and his 44 targets from Week 3 until now are second only behind Alvin F-ing Kamara (55). McKissic's 14 targets might've been the outlier for the season, sure, but the fact remains that he has at least six catches AND 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Smith has checked the ball down on 18% of his throws now, which doubles that of any signal-caller with a minimum of 100 pass attempts in 2020. This prop only loses if Washington blows out the Lions on the road, or if we see Haskins enter the game. If we get a full game of Smith, then I love this double dip prop even that much more.
Jalen Reagor - Over 41.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): The Giants' defense has allowed the third most air yards to opponents this season, and now we enter Jalen Reagor into the equation for Week 10 to see just how much Doug Pederson & Co. unleash the rookie in the second half of the season. Despite registering just three catches in his Week 8 debut from IR, Reagor still saw a 22%+ target share and averaged over 13 yards in terms of average. Reagor also gets a plum defensive back matchup in Week 10, most likely lining up against Isaac Yiadom, who is tied for allowing the 13th most receiving touchdowns (3) while surrendering the 11th highest yards per target. I expect Travis Fulgham to draw the James Bradberry shadow coverage treatment in this matchup, and it could just take one play to hit this total for us here in this spot. Reagor tallied 55 and 41 yards, respectively, in Weeks 1 and 2 in what was essentially limited preseason action, and he's now had extra time to get healthy and acclimated to Carson Wentz & Company.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Leonard Fournette Over 58.5 rushing and receiving yards (DraftKings -125)