It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out anywhere from one, two or three (or more!) of the favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, COVID-19 news etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week below. Make sure to also tune into our weekly Betting Predators Money Picks / Player Props podcast, which drops on the weekend, where Sleepy J and I run through our player prop betting process, as well as favorite plays, for each game on the upcoming NFL Sunday main slate.
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, BetDSI, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 82-63
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 5-4
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Total: 87-67 (56.5%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Total = 11-8 (57.9%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 93-71 (56.7%)
Miles Sanders - Over 65.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -122): The Philadelphia Eagles get a plus matchup in Week 11 against a Myles Garrett-less Cleveland Browns defense which ranks both a lowly 23rd against the pass and 28th against the run this season. While the Eagles seemingly flopped in pivotal division matchup with the New York Giants in Week 10, Miles Sanders still did his thing, gaining 85 yards on just 15 carries. Sanders now has at least 80 rushing yards in all but one of his six games this season, all the while averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry clip. Close to 55% of Sanders rushing yardage has actually come on gains of 10 yards or more, and that includes him ripping off 74 yards in back to back weeks against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. I also expect Sanders to eclipse the 72% playing time that he received in his first game back from IR against the Giants. I have Sanders ranked firmly inside the top 5 RB's for fantasy this week and we have him as a top 5 DFS value as well.
Salvon Ahmed - Over 54.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -134): The undrafted rookie out of Washington flashed in a major way in Week 10, toting the rock for a team-high 21 carries for 85 yards in the Miami Dolphins' 29-21 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The sample size is very small for Ahmed individually here, but if you actually look at the Dolphins this season, they're even more run-heavy with Tua Tagovailoa under center as well, and in Week 11 they are favored on the road against a porous Denver Broncos defense that was just gashed by the Las Vegas Raiders to the tune of 203 rushing yards. Matt Breida could be back in Week 11 for Miami to steal a few touches from Ahmed, sure, but all indications are that Breida will serve more as a change of pace option and might see more targets than overall carries. Gaskin cleared this total in three of his five most recent games before getting hurt, and the two games he didn't were against a stout Rams defense in a sort of comeback, pass-happy type script.
Kalen Ballage - Over 53.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): The man we all used to laugh at and hate in fantasy circles is getting the last laugh in 2020, vaulting himself into RB1 status in Week 11 after dominating touches in the Los Angeles Chargers' backfield over the past two weeks. Ballage exceeded 73% of snaps in Week 10, as well as receiving 67% of the team's rushing attempts, 20% of targets and running a route on 61% of dropbacks. I don't hate a play here on his overall rushing + receiving prop here either, but I actually believe the Chargers will lead big in this game and not need to air it out to the backs very often. Ballage has 68 and 69 yards over the past two weeks, both in losses, showing that he can certainly clear 53.5, even in a negative game script. Add in the Adam Gase/New York Jets revenge game narrative here, in addition to the fact that the Chargers are favored by more than a touchdown at home, and this becomes a pure smash spot for Ballage in Week 11. And I have him ranked as a top 10 fantasy RB accordingly this week.
Chase Claypool - Over 45.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -134): The three-headed wideout monster of Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster has emerged onto the scene as the NFL's most talented wide receiver unit in 2020 (sorry but not sorry, Tampa Bay), and we're getting boatloads of value on the rookie Claypool being set nearly 15 yards lower than his 1A/1B counterparts in this matchup. The pass-happy Steelers continue to run their offense through their star receiver trio (46/20 pass to run ratio in Week 10), and Claypool actually leads the trio in deep target rate (33.3%) over the last four weeks. His 19.2% target share during that span isn't too shabby either, and Claypool, just like Diontae, below, needs just one successful long bomb from Big Ben to cash this over ticket for us in Week 11. Claypool has also now seen a team-high 32 targets and 39% of air yards over the past three weeks, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing 14+ yards per reception, good for third worst in the entire National Football League.
Diontae Johnson - 0ver 59.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): I know, I know. The value is certainly on Chase Claypool in this plus matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, with the rookie's prop line being set nearly 15 yards lower than both Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster. But Diontae's prop line is set too low here as well. Johnson has now seen double digit targets in every single game where he hasn't experienced an in-game injury. Johnson is also coming off a career-high 116 receiving yards in Week 10, a game in which the Steelers turned more pass heavy than ever in an effort to establish a deep ball threat with Big Ben & Co. Johnson actually did most of his damage before halftime, too, ceding targets to Claypool in garbage time. Diontae now has 21 targets, 12 catches and 193 receiving yards over his past two games, and this is a number he can simply exceed on one catch with the way that the Steelers are designing his routes and targets all over the field. The number is simply set too low.
Calvin Ridley - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 59.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -132): This might be the only spot all season where we have a chance to bet Calvin Ridley's prop line at 60 yards. The Atlanta Falcons were on a bye last week, and before that we saw Ridley ruled out of action one week after leaving a game due to injury. Case in point, it has been a hot minute since we've seen the uber-talented Ridley, and I believe the books are sleeping on both his talent and matchup here. In the four games where Julio Jones and Ridley have both played healthy this season, Ridley actually has more targets (22.2%) and end zone targets (37.5%) than Julio. Ridley also has the same amount of deep targets as Julio in this offense during that same span (34.6%), and he gets an exploitable here. Ridley has ahad a solid history versus New Orleans, as per Sharp Football Analysis, posting lines of 7-146-3, 8-93-1, 3-28-0, and 8-91-0, and he has now topped 60 yards and four catches in his last 10 out of 11 healthy games.
Jalen Reagor - Over 42.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): We cashed our over 41.5 ticket on Jalen Reagor last week, and that was in a game where he saw James Bradberry on certain routes during a loss to the New York Giants. We have no shadow corner to fear in this matchup, and conversely we walk into a pass-funnel Cleveland Browns defense in a game where (fingers crossed) winds don't expect to exceed 10 mph. Other than some rain in the forecast, which could actually benefit Reagor and help him get loose downfield, I expect the Eagles to bounce back in Week 11 with no Myles Garrett to worry about on the Browns' defensive front. Reagor's 0.49 WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) leads Philadelphia, and he passed Travis Fulgham with 91% routes run in Week 10 and seven targets (20% target share). We are again going to capitalize on the books underrating a rookie wideout who has clearly emerged as his team's top option. Reagor's line only moved up one yard and he is still set lower than Fulgham overall.
Antonio Gibson - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 16.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112/-134): If you listened to our NFL Week 11 Money Picks / Player Props podcast this weekend, then you've already heard our take on the infamous "quadruple dip" Washington running backs prop that we've cashed three times this season. The numbers on J.D. McKissic simply don't present value in Week 11, being set at either 4.5 or 5.5 receptions and close to 40 receiving yards. McKissic's usage actually dovetailed in the second half of last week's loss to the Detroit Lions as he saw just four targets after halftime. Enter Antonio Gibson, a former wide receiver converted to running back in college and whose prop numbers have stayed the same, while the books have pumped McKissic's up to ungodly levels. Gibson, however, has cleared both 2.5 receptions AND 16.5 receiving yards in five straight games, minus the blowout over the Dallas Cowboys. It might not be a quadruple dip again here, but a douple dip prop will serve us just fine in Week 11.
J.D. McKissic - Under 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (FanDuel -113): OK, maybe we can call it a triple dip this week. This line simply doesn't make sense to me, both from a gamescript/process standpoint as well as just a pure, basic math standpoint. McKissic has exceeded 71.5 yards in just two of nine games this season and is averaging just 51 combined yards on the season. He's typically not involved as a runner, either, as evidenced by his 8-6 rushing line in Week 10 despite seeing 15 targets. Washington is favored, and their at home, which gives all the more reason for the rookie Gibson to possibly see an increase in overall snaps, carries and routes run. While I do think McKissic will continue to be involved in the passing game, I simply do not expect another 14/15 target outing and that makes this one of my favorite overall props of the week. If you actually add McKissic's individual yardage props on FanDuel (25.5 rush, 39.5 rec) you'd actually be looking at an implied total of 65 yards. That gives us at least 6.5 yards of value here to take this under prop.
Terry McLaurin - Over 5.5 receptions AND 73.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -143/137): "Scary Terry" is striking fear into opposing secondaries on a weekly basis and emerging as one of the top five wide receivers in the league this season. He now has 95+ receiving yards in both of Alex Smith's recent games as starting quarterback, averaging 8.5 targets in that span, and even if the Cincinnati Bengals decide to shadow him with William Jackson in Week 11 it wouldn't worry me one bit here in this spot. Jackson has been mediocre in coverage this season, allowing 25-of-44 passing for 332 yards, while McLaurin on the other hands leads all NFL receivers in air yards share on the year (43.0%). McLaurin has also posted seven reception in each of his past four games and in a high total, neutral-script type of matchup, I will gladly bank on the volume here. There have been 12 different wide receivers to post 69+ receiving yards against the Bengals, including both Diontae Johnson (6-116) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (9-77) in Week 10's loss.
Tee Higgins - Over 69.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -105): Over the past two months Tee Higgins has officially emerged as the Cincinnati Bengals' alpha wide receiver next to Tyler Boyd, seeing a massive team-high 37% of deep targets, as well as 20.8 of overall targets. Higgins now has at least 70 receiving yards or more in five of those seven games, hitting 115 twice and getting a plus matchup against a Washington Football Team that has fared better against opposing slot receivers like Boyd than against deep threats like Higgins. Higgins has now seen 18 targets for 13 catches and 193 yards over the past two weeks and currently ranks sixth in the NFL in receiving yards (568) and eighth in air yards (699). While no wideout has 100 yards against Washington this season, we did just see Marvin Jones post an 8-96-1 line in Week 10. We're betting on talent in this spot, in addition to one of the highest projected tempo matchups on the slate in a game where both quarterbacks could be dropping back 50+ times to throw.
Dalvin Cook - Over 97.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -148): This will easily be the highest rushing yardage prop I've played this season, but hear me out for a second. Cook just ran for 90+ rushing yards against a very tough Chicago Bears defense in primetime in Week 10, and in Week 11 he now faces a Dallas Cowboys defense that has faced a running play on 48% of plays, the third-highest clip in the NFL. Add to the fact that Cook is averaging nearly 22 yards per game, and the Minnesota Vikings are also the second run-heaviest team overall in the league, and we could be seeing another 200-yard potential outing in this matchup. The Cowboys have faced a massive 26+ carries on average to opposing running backs, in addition to allowing 4.71 yards per carry. Do the math there, especially factoring in Mike Zimmer's desire to "establish the run," and we have everything lined up here for a smash spot and run-heavy approach despite seeing a career-high 30+ touches last week and even with Alexander Mattison mixing in.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Ben Roethlisberger Under 37.5 passing attempts