Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 91-69
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 5-5
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Total: 96-74 (56.5%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Total = 11-8 (57.9%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 102-77 (57.0%)
Kenyan Drake - Over 7.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): Once considered the biggest fantasy football bust of 2020, Kenyan Drake has quickly rebounded into RB2 relevance this season. Since returning from his high ankle sprain, Drake has now out-touched Chase Edmonds 32-17 over the past two weeks, including 15-6 last week. The most impressive part of Drake's Week 11 performance was seeing a season-high five targets, which is more than double his previous season high of two. Drake actually had 3+ in seven of his eight games with Arizona in 2019, also racking up 3+ catches in six of those eight games, so it was actually more surprising that it took him this long to be involved in the passing game. Perhaps it was the ankle/foot all along that was holding him back. Drake eclipsed 7.5 receiving yards in seven of those eight games in 2019, and in 2020 he has also gone over in his past two games. Lastly, we also get a vacated 10 targets from Week 11 with no Larry Fitzgerald manning the slot in this game.
Chase Edmonds - Over 18.5 rec yards AND Over 2.5 receptions (BetOnline -114, DraftKings -118): As mentioned with Drake above, Edmonds should also stand to benefit from the absence of the veteran Fitzgerald in Week 12, as well as Murray's injury, which will cause the quarterback to look for quick releases throughout this contest. While Edmonds has seen a major reduction in carries since Drake returned two weeks ago, his receiving game usage has remained in tact, with at least three catches and three targets in four consecutive games. The Patriots are allowing a below-average 6.47 yards per target to opposing running backs, and Edmonds could be set to see even more receiving volume in Week 12 as Murray checks down often with DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk dealing with shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore down the field. Those short-area and slot-type targets will be distributed amongst both Drake and Edmonds alike, all the more reason to buy into both backs in this matchup.
Kyler Murray - Under 51.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): Another Arizona Cardinals prop, another play on Murray's shoulder injury. Another factor in this under prop here is that the New England Patriots have allowed a league-high 8.69 yards per attempt, while no other team in the league has allowed more than 8.41 yards per attempt. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury & Co will most likely have their franchise QB take it easy in this game and limit his rushing, just as we saw them do in Week 11 when Kyler had his lowest rushing output of the season with just five rushes for 15 yards. It looks like the books are treating that game as an outlier, although I believe that's a mistake by them to do so. The Patriots defense is more than attackable through the air, allowing a porous 73% completion percentage, 8.9 YPA and 7:2 TD to INT ratio over their last three games to Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Arizona is 6-4 with a legit chance to make the playoffs and win its division. Keeping Kyler safe will be a priority in Week 12.
Dalvin Cook - Over 24.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): A lot of talk in Week 12 will be around Justin Jefferson and Kyle Rudolph seeing increased volume with the loss of both Irv Smith Jr and Adam Thielen. While I believe that's true for both, let's not forget Dalvin Cook here either. Cook is averaging a straight ridiculous 30.5 touches per game over his last four outings and actually ranks third on the team in targets (30) this season. He has also started to become more involved in the passing game in recent weeks, catching all nine of his targets in Weeks 10-11 for 61 yards through the air. He has exceeded 24.5 receiving yards now in three of his past four games as well, with long receptions of 26, 29 and 50 in each of those three instances. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have allowed 6.8 receptions and 46.6 receiving yards per game against opposing rushers. While his rushing yards prop is set a bit too rich for my blood (currently 110.5 in many books), I'll gladly take the low number of 24.5 receiving yards.
Wayne Gallman - Over 56.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -130): Looking at the box scores and game logs will not give you much confidence about this over rushing prop for Gallman, but hear me out for a second. Gallman has now seen an increase in carries in five straight games (5-10-12-14-18), including a season-high 18 carries for 53 yards against a stout Philadelphia run defense in Week 10 before the Giants' bye. Game script should be well in Gallman's favor in this Week 12 tilt with the Bengals, who will be starting 28 year-old Brandon Allen under center and will struggle to keep pace. The Giants are right in the thick of the NFC East race as well, giving them further motivation to play smart, grind clock and feed their workhorse to secure a road victory. Cincinnati is 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.24), while there's just one other team that's allowed more than 4.78. Gallman also played a season-high in snaps in Week 10 (59%) and ran for a season-high 68 yards in Week 9 on just 14 carries against a solid Washington run defense.
Giovani Bernard - Under 47.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): Despite allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the Giants have actually allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points on the ground to them, according to FantasyPros' Mike Tagliere. The Giants have also seen a league-leading 23.3% target share go to opposing backs, which sets up well for Giovani Bernard to have a solid PPR fantasy outing through the air as a low-end RB2. I do not expect much of Gio's production to come on the ground, however, in a game where the Giants are favored by a touchdown on the road and coming off a bye with playoff aspirations and win-now motivation. Bernard would be best served as safety valve type of target for newly-minted starter Brandon Allen, and the fact that his rushing yards prop is set at 47.5, less than 10 yards away from that of Gallman, is simply a mistake by the books here. Gio has topped just 37 yards rushing once in four starts this season, so we're getting value at this number.
Calvin Ridley - Over 75.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): We cashed our Calvin Ridley double dip prop in Week 11 with over 4.5 receptions and over 59.5 receiving yards, and while the books have appropriately juiced him up for Week 12, it's still not enough. Ridley's usage in Week 11 was elite, as he ran a route on 92% of Matt Ryan dropbacks and devoured 29% of the Falcon's targets on the day, as well as a ridiculous 171 air yards and 17.1 yard average depth of target (aDOT). Ridley is ranked firmly within my top 10 WR's for Week 12 for a reason at Betting Predators, and his Week 12 opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, are a lowly 23rd in yards per target allowed to opposing wide receivers (8.8 yards). Whether or not Julio Jones misses this game, Ridley looks to be set for a minimum of eight targets and possibly much more. When Ridley gets 8+ targets, he has exceeded 80 yards receiving in 12 of 13 of those games, including all 13 of those games with 70+ yards, averaging a robust 107.5 yards per game with that volume.
Nyheim Hines - Over 28.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): Hines' opponent in Week 12, the Tennessee Titans, haven't seen all that much production go through the air to opposing backs this season, but they also haven't faced all too many receiving backs like Hines, who racked up a 6-5-45 receiving line against them just two weeks ago in the Colts' 34-17 win on Thursday Night Football. Hines is set for an increased workload again in Week 12 with Jonathan Taylor testing positive for COVID, and with or without the increased rushing role he has still exceeded 28.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. I expect Hines to get upwards of 80-90% of the running back targets in this game, with Jordan Wilkins merely serving as an early-down grinder and change of pace option. Even if the Colts decide to ride Wilkins as part of a "hot hand" approach, I still don't see Hines' receiving game role disappearing here. He has at least 30 yards receiving in all but one of six games where he has received at least four targets this season.
Jamison Crowder - Over 4.5 receptions (BetOnline -143): Slot-happy signal-caller Sam Darnold is back under center for Gangreen in Week 12, meaning that Jamison Crowder is back on the fantasy football and DFS map. The Jets' slot receiver all but disappeared over the last two weeks with Joe Flacco slinging it deep to Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims on the outside, but this week those two receivers will have their hands full with arguably the league's best DB duo in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Dolphins opponents are still targeting their wide receivers 62.8 percent of the time, which marks the third-highest rate in the NFL, and that has led to 22.5 targets per game to opposing wide receivers overall. Miami's Nik Needham is also the team's weak spot in the slot, allowing 27-of-41 passing for 333 yards in his coverage this season. Crowder tallied seven catches for 48 yards with Flacco under center the last time these two teams played (13 targets), closing a stretch in which he had seven or more catches in his first four games of the year.
DJ Moore - Over 59.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): The Minnesota Vikings have clawed their way back to a respectable 4-6 record this season, but make no mistake, Mike Zimmer's secondary is in absolute shambles and lacks the experience in the back end to stop any opposing wide receivers with a hint of talent. Moore will reap the benefits of facing backup DB Kris Boyd in coverage for most of Week 12. Boyd, a seventh-round pick, is allowing a paltry 20-of-26 for 267 yards in his coverage in 2020, and Moore comes into this contest ranking fourth in the NFL in total yardage amongst wide receivers. You don't have to tell me that Robby Anderson is Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target in this offense. I get it. But what I will tell you is that Moore's receiving prop is set 11.5 yards lower than Robby, which is simply a mistake for one of the most talented deep threats in the league who gets his juiciest matchup of the year here. Moore now has 93 yards or more in five of his past seven games and led the team with 11 targets in Week 11.
Taysom Hill - Over 50.5 rushing yards (BetOnline -114): In what could simply be described as a "beautiful mess" of a game in Week 12, we've seen the over/under plummet down near 35 and 36 in this game with all three of Denver's quarterbacks being ruled out for this matchup. Vic Fangio & Co will attempt to pull out all the stops against the Saints here, who will be without their starting left tackle and facing a Broncos defense that forced Brian Flores to bench the rookie Tua Tagovailoa in Week 11. While Denver has been stout in certain areas of their defense this season, it has actually allowed 5.05 yards per carry to quarterbacks, which ranks as the 10th highest mark in the league. Cam Newton ran for 76 yards against them, while Sam Darnold also ran for 84 yards. The Broncos do rank third in the NFL in pressure rate (26.0%), however, meaning that Hill could be scrambling a bit more than usual as his receivers are certain to gain less separation this week than they did last week against Atlanta's pass-funnel secondary.
Latavius Murray - Over 42.5 rushing yards (BetOnline -114): It's no coincidence that Alvin Kamara has appeared on the early-week injury report for consecutive weeks now. That nagging foot issue has also coincided with Kamara's season-low 48% snap rate in Week 11, in addition to his first catch-less game in 55 career outings. Murray, on the other hand, handled a season-high 50% of snaps with his most touches (14) since Week 4. He now has 10+ touches in eight of 10 contests this season, and the Broncos have been a team to attack more-so through the air than on the ground. The Saints are coming off matchups recently agains the Bears, Bucs, 49ers and Falcons over the past month - all top-half in run DVOA defense - and get possibly their best rushing matchup since October in this Week 12 spot here. The value is on Murray's rushing prop here, as the former Raider/Viking has just 15 fewer carries than Kamara on the year and has exceeded this total in back to back games since Drew Brees went down with his injuries.
Tyreek Hill - Over 5.5 receptions AND Over 73.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -130): Hill's target volume is out of control these past few weeks, totaling 32 (!) targets in his past two games and 10+ targets in three of his past four outings. The only one of those games he didn't see 10+ targets was in the Chiefs' 35-9 rout of the Jets, a game in which he still tallied 98 receiving yards, two touchdowns and a long reception of 41 yards. Hill is now averaging 105+ receiving yards since Week 10 and is actually playing close to 60% of his snaps in the slot this season. That slot usage plays directly into the Chiefs' favor their Week 12 tilt against Tampa Bay, as the Bucs slot cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting ranks as the sixth-worst in the league, allowing 2.28 PPR points per target in his coverage. The Rams ripped Murphy-Bunting a new one in Week 11, too, with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to the tune of 28 targets, 23 catches and 275 yards. Even DJ Moore totaled 12 catches for 216 yards in his two outings against the Bucs this year.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Robby Anderson to score a TD (DraftKings +165)