Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 101-74
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 6-5
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Total: 107-79 (57.5%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Total = 11-8 (57.9%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 112-82 (57.7%)
Emmanuel Sanders - Over 2 receptions AND Over 23.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -125/DraftKings -130): One could simply take a quick glean at the box scores of Emmanuel Sanders and see a wideout who has put up just 40+ receiving yards once since Week 5. Take a closer look, however, and you'll see a clear cut WR2 in this New Orleans Saints offense who tallied four catches for 66 yards just two weeks ago on five targets against this same Atlanta Falcons pass-funnel defense. Sanders also had a 57-yard touchdown called back due to penalty in that game, which would've given him a dominant 6-5-123-1 receiving line on the day. If you remove the Week 12 game against a quarterback-less Denver Broncos team, as well as when Brees went down and Jameis Winston finished the game, Sanders has at least four catches, five targets and 38 yards in five straight ames this season. The books are adjusting these Saints receiving lines down due to Taysom Hill throwing for less than 100 yards in Week 12, but they shouldn't, especially against a Falcons defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WR's.
Michael Thomas - Over 5 receptions AND 59.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -120/DraftKings -143): Another double dip player prop tied to the arm of Taysom Hill? I get it, it's not a pretty proposition. But we've now seen Michael Thomas account for a whopping 46.2% target share (18 of 39 Taysom targets) over the last two weeks. "MT" racked up a dominant 12-9-104 line just two weeks ago against these Falcons - including a rare 20-yard drop - and now we're getting another dome game with an improved and healthy Atlanta squad getting both Julio Jones and Todd Gurley back, as well as playing inspired football with a new head coach. The more competitive the Falcons offense can be in this game, the faster our Sanders/Thomas props will cash. Atlanta's pamper-soft secondary is allowing a porous 9.46 yards per target clip to opposing wideouts this season, the most in the NFL, and have allowed eight wideouts to top 100 receiving yards, as well as games with 95, 93 and 92 yards. Thomas is also the top candidate on Establish The Run's "Air Yards Buy Low" model, a fantastic indicator of positive statistical regression.
Calvin Ridley - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 64.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -150/-125): Our third double dip prop in this Saints-Falcons divisional showdown comes with a player we've cashed prop tickets on quite often this season and one whose lines are currently set at seemingly disrespectful levels. New Orleans has already ruled out No. 2 DB Janoris Jenkins for this matchup, leaving Marshon Lattimore to likely split time defending both Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. Edge rusher Marcus Davenport will also miss this matchup, further boosting the fantasy/prop stock of the entire Falcons passing attack in this spot. Ridley still saw a team-high nine targets in a Week 12 blowout victory that saw Matt Ryan throw for just 185 yards. Ridley leads the league in air yards per game this year (123.0) and has recorded at least 90 receiving yards in four of five career games with the Saints, posting lines of 7-146, 8-93, 8-91 and 5-90 along the way. The Saints defense is coming on as of late, sure, but it won't be enough in a home matchup for Ryan & Co, in a game where Julio will draw attention away on a regular basis from Ridley.
AJ Brown - Over 68.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -118): Elite edge rusher Myles Garrett returns for Cleveland in this pivotal AFC matchup in Week 13 to help boost a Browns defense readying to tee off against a Titans offensive line ranking bottom 10 in QB knockdown percentage allowed and also in pass block win rate. All this goes to say is that not a single NFL wide receiver produces better yards after the catch than Mr. AJ Brown himself, and one simple slant for the middle of the field, against this pass-funnel Browns defense, is all he needs to get past this low total. Since returning from injury in Week 5, Brown is still 13th among wide receivers in overall targets (57), borderline top 20 in receptions (35) and sixth overall in yardage (597). The Browns will also be without top DB Denzel Ward and are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Brown is locked into the top 5 WR's in my Week 13 fantasy rankings this week and is a great bet against a pass-funnel defense in one of the highest O/U totals on the slate.
Allen Robinson - Over 70.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): Allen Robinson continues to be one of the very few "QB-proof" wideouts in the game, and he's just one of seven wide receivers in fact with triple-digit targets through 12 weeks of the 2020 season. What was already a pristine draw against a putrid Detroit Lions secondary gets even better in Week 13 with Desmond Trufant now on I.R. and Jeffrey Okudah being ruled out with a shoulder injury. The Lions are allowing 9.3 yards per target to opposing receivers this season, which is the third-highest mark in the league, and the last three times Robinson played against this squad/man-scheme he posted lines of 5-74, 8-86-1, 6-86 and even 6-133-2 back in 2018. I also mentioned this stat on our NFL Week 13 Money Picks/Player Podcast episode, which is that "Bears QB's" have a 90.5 QBR when targeting Robinson this year, as opposed to 74.8 for Darnell Mooney and 69.9 for Anthony Miller. We are guaranteed a great matchup, with great volume, so sign me up here.
David Montgomery - Over 61.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -132): This kind-sorta of feels like a hedge on the Allen Robinson prop, but I actually don't believe it is here. The peripheral numbers are tremendous for Montgomery going into this matchup against Detroit in Week 13. The Lions are allowing 2.45 yards before contact to opposing backs this season as well, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL, and and they are the "best matchup" when looking at schedule-adjusted fantasy football rankings, allowing gobs of both yards and touchdowns to running backs week in and week out. Montgomery's 16 touches last week netted him 143 yards and a score against the Green Bay Packers, posting season-highs in rushing yards (103), yards per carry (9.4) total yards from scrimmage (143) and snaps (85%). I also like a play on his total rushing/receiving yards in this one, as he ran a route on 74% of drop backs in Week 12. It's not the sexiest of plays, I get it, but I'll prioritize the rushing yards here first due to projected positive game script.
Justin Jefferson - Over 67.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): Jefferson still saw a whopping 13 targets and 129 air yards in Week. 12, and he's leading the NFL with an elite level 2.91 yards per route run this year. Mike Glennon looked surprisingly competent in his first start in Week 12, too, and with DJ Chark back for the Jaguars, we can at least expect them to be somewhat competitive early in this game. Cook himself is nursing an injury and Alexander Mattison was ruled out this week with a non-COVID related illness, giving Mike Zimmer a little more motivation to lean on his passing game in this spot. Jefferson is tied for the league lead with 12 catches for 20+ yards this year, and the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most pass plays of 20+ yards themselves (39). With cluster injuries in Jacksonville's secondary, this makes Jefferson a solid play this week in a situation where I believe he actually benefits with Adam Thielen back on the field taking defensive attention away from him. I will continue to buy the usage as well in this Week 13 tilt.
Denzel Mims - Over 53.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): This is simply the time of the year where we want to be buying into rookie wide receivers, whether it be in season-long fantasy leagues, dynasty leagues, DFS and even the player prop market. Mims now has three straight games with at least eight targets and 62 receiving yards, and he showed he can post those same numbers whether it's with Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco under center as well. The Las Vegas Raiders are banged up all throughout their secondary heading into this Week 13 contest, whose top DB's are allowing a pathetic 10.0 yards per target. Mims has run a route on 100%, 84.4% and 96.9% of his team's drop backs over these last three games, too, while the Raiders rank a lowly 25th in completion rate allowed on deep targets (47.8%). At first glance I was going to make him AND Breshad Perriman official plays on this column, but I'll side with the talented rookie here as I can only hold so much stock in New York Jets players on a weekly basis.
Davante Adams - Over 6.5 receptions (DraftKings -130): I thought Darius Slay had been forced into retirement following his Monday Night Football meltdown against D.K. Metcalf in Week 12, allowing 10 catches for 177 yards on 13 targets to the "run-happy" Seattle Seahawks top wideout. Only half-kidding here, but man, Slay showed that while he might be a solid DB, he has no chance at covering elite wide receivers in this league. I believe we're getting a slight discount on Adams here with his receptions due to last week's blowout win against the Chicago Bears where Rodgers spread the ball around more than usual against a very stingy secondary and even missed Adams on a few deep balls late in the second half, too. The Eagles secondary has been average at best in 2020, and Adams absolutely torched this unit last year in a game he got hurt, posting 10-180 before leaving the game due to injury. Adams has at least seven receptions in five straight games before Week 12, and he's burned Slay consistently throughout his career.
Dallas Goedert - Over 41.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): Another Eagles/Packers game pass catcher and another discounted player prop price, this time for Dallas Goedert, who has emerged as the true WR1 in this offense. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most yards per target (8.0) to opposing tight ends this season and have given up big receiving lines to Rob Gronkowski (5-78-1), T.J. Hockenson (4-62) and Hayden Hurst (4-51). Goedert is not only the most talented of that group, but he also demands the highest target share, seeing a season-high 10 targets in Week 12 and now in back-to-back weeks posting 5-77-1 and 7-75-1. Goedert remains firmly locked into his role in an offense that loves running two-tight end sets. Philly will be starting its 11th different offensive line combination against a tough Packers pass rush with Za'Darius Smith leading the way, all the more reason for Wentz to go to his security blanket and big target in Goedert time and time again in Week 13 in those short to intermediate areas of the field.
Boston Scott - Over 10.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -125): For a team projected to be trailing for most of this game, this is a line I simply don't get. While I do believe this is a smash spot for Miles Sanders to get back on track running the football, Scott will still factor in and be involved in both the two-minute offense and on long down and distance situations. Sanders has in fact run just four more pass routes than Scott over the last two weeks and of the fantasy production allowed by the Packers this season, 41.3% of it has gone to opposing running backs, the highest rate in the league, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Scott racked up a cool 6-5-40 receiving line in mostly garbage time in Week 12, and he now has at least 11 receiving yards in four of the last five weeks, posting lines of 6-5-40, 3-3-26, 1-1-11, 2-2-9 and 5-3-46 over that span. With a projected negative game script here I don't see how Scott doesn't get a handful of targets and late dump downs from Wentz in this game, or dare I say, from Jalen Hurts?
Miles Sanders - Over 61.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): This prop definitely takes the award for my most uncomfortable play of Week 13, as I simply cannot trust anything attached to Carson Wentz or Doug Pederson these days. But I can't ignore the numbers here either. The only team in the NFL allowing more fantasy production to opposing running backs than the Packers is the Lions. Green Bay is giving up 4.65 yards per carry and just allowed David Montgomery to have a career day on the ground despite the Bears trailing by multiple touchdowns throughout. I believe Sanders is the much more talented back of the two, and despite him ceding some snaps and touches to Boston Scott in recent weeks, he still holds a firm grab on the running back rush share in this offense. Montgomery was in fact the fourth RB to top 100 rushing yards against Green Bay in Week 12, and before the Eagles Week 12 debacle against Seattle, which sports a borderline elite run defense, Sanders had exceeded 66 rushing yards in six of seven games this year.
Wayne Gallman - Under 53.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): If you listened to our Week 13 money picks/player prop podcast, then you'll know that Sleepy J and I have a little pizza bet on this player prop here. At first glance I was going to leave it at that, a pizza bet. But after digging a bit deeper after we finished recording, I just continued to like this play more and more. Why? Well, opposing running backs simply are getting nothing going on the ground against the Seattle Seahawks these days. Some of their most recent opponents have included Miles Sanders' 6-15 rushing line (lol), as well as Kenyan Drake (11-29), Cam Akers (10-38), Zach Moss (9-18) and JaMycal Hasty (12-29). The Carlos Dunlap trade is proving to be one of the biggest acquisitions of the 2020 NFL season, and with projected game script being negative for the New York Giants, even more so with Colt McCoy under center, I don't see Gallman getting enough carries to clear this number as the Seahawks have no reason not to stack the box in this game.
DK Metcalf - Over 77.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): This is simply a bet on talent here, as the only "down games" we've seen from DK this year are the ones where he's faced either Patrick Peterson or Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage. I know James Bradberry poses a solid threat to possibly limit Metcalf's production in Week 13, as he's much bigger than Darius Slay, but Tyler Lockett seems to be dealing with some nagging injuries which could be the reason why DK posted a ridiculous 207 air yards in Week 12, trailing only Tyreek Hill in that metric. DK now has nine games on the season with at least 90 receiving yards, and if we're getting the extra volume on top of the efficiency, then folks, watch out. Mike Evans, a similar "big-bodied" receiver to DK yet nowhere near as athletic, was able to give Bradberry issues earlier in the season and with 13 targets for Metcalf plus 200+ air yards, we can confidently project the talented Ole Miss alum to get enough volume in this matchup to easily clear this disrespectfully low total.
Kenyan Drake - Over 9.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): This is another play, similar to that of Boston Scott above, where I just don't feel the books are adjusting enough. Drake was abysmal in his receiving game usage to start the year and we all know Chase Edmonds gets work in that area too, but things are changing. Drake has 57 touches overall to 27 for Edmonds since he returned from injury just three weeks ago, and he now has nine targets over the past two games with seven receptions. Kyler Murray's banged up shoulder seems to be forcing him into quick dump offs to running backs to gain chunk yards, too, instead of him taking off and scrambling, which also seems to boost our cause here. The Rams are stingy on the ground, and Jalen Ramsey projects to shadow DeAndre Hopkins for much of this contest, so the yards and production have to come from somewhere, especially in a relatively high O/U total game and one that is "up in pace" according to Pat Thorman's "Snaps & Pace" column on Establish The Run.
Cooper Kupp - Over 5.5 receptions AND Over 63.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -120/DraftKings -130): Cooper Kupp gets a prime draw in Week 13 against a short-handed Arizona Cardinals defense that has been eaten alive by opposing slot receivers this season. The Cardinals' Byron Murphy, who is already one of the weak lines in this secondary, has struggled since being moved to the slot as well, the we've seen slot wideouts Tyler Locker (15-200-3), Cole Beasley (11-109-1) and Jamison Crowder (8-116-1) all have their way - and then some - in this matchup. The Cardinals also give 55.7% of their fantasy production allowed to opposing wide receivers, ranking as the third-worst clip in the NFL, according to Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros, and we've already seen Kupp's upside this season to the tune of three 100-yard games. As per Sports Info Solutions and Establish The Run, Kupp owns a dominant 33% target share versus Cover 1 defenses this year, while Robert Woods’ Cover 1 share is 21%. Arizona has played Cover 1 on a league-high 162 snaps, giving both Cupp and Woods a ton of chances to give us great prop/DFS value in this spot.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Deshaun Watson to thrown an interception (DraftKings -112)