Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 116-79
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 7-5
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Total: 123-84 (59.4%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Total = 12-9 (57.1%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 128-88 (59.2%)
(NEW) Brandon Aiyuk - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 56.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112/FanDuel -142): Aiyuk has shown a clear connection with Nick Mullens in 2020 and he has now exceeded both 4.5 catches and 56.5 receiving yards in four straight games. Aiyuk is averaging a healthy 10 targets per game over the last month and in his last two games has posted lines of 9-5-95 (109 air yards, 23% target share) against the Buffalo Bills and 14-7-75 against the New Orleans Saints. The fact he received nine targets against the Bills with Deebo Samuel back healthy shows that the San Francisco 49ers are intent to leave Deebo in his usual “gadget” type role and keep Aiyuk as the team’s primary WR1. Aiyuk should see a decent amount of Kendall Fuller in coverage in Week 14, and while Fuller has been solid, he’s also allowing a healthy 13.2 yards per catcha. Washington’s defense is talented, sure, but most of that talent resides in the front seven and I expect Mullens to lock onto his WR1 with confidence as he faces constant pressure.
(NEW) JD McKissic - Over 35.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): We're going right back to the RB checkdown master in this matchup against a 49ers squad that has allowed the ninth most receiving yards to running backs over the last five weeks. McKissic leads Washington in targets, catches and first-down conversions with Alex Smith under center and just last week caught a season-high 10 balls while playing 74% of snaps after Antonio Gibson left with his turf toe injury. San Francisco’s defense, on the other hand, has been extremely stingy against running backs on the ground in 2020. I do expect Peyton Barber to mix in on early downs, but to have little success. McKissic’s matchup and skill set fits this Washington offense perfectly for Week 14, and I expect him to compete for the team lead in receiving yards next to Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas. McKissoc’s 69 targets since Week 4 (52-370) are more than the Denver Broncos' Jerry Jeudy (!) has during that span. No other RB has more than 55 targets during that time.
(NEW) Justin Herbert - Over 274.5 passing yards (DraftKings -129): As we’ve mentioned below with our Ekeler and Ridley plays, the Falcons pass-funnel defense have forced opponents to throw the ball at the seventh-highest situation neutral pass rate this season (60%). What makes me like this even more is that Atlanta is allowing 300.7 passing yards per game on average and we have a “get right spot” of sorts for the Los Angeles Chargers after a 45-0 loss to the New England Patriots. Los Angeles ranks third in combined plays on average (134.2), are 9-18-1 ATS at home under Anthony Lynn (second worst in the NFL) and 0-6 ATS in their last six, so we get some added potential for garbage time yards and negative game script. The Falcons are also allowing a league-high 23.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a full point more than the next team. We’ve seen Herbert hit this total now in eight of 11 starts and the matchup has never been better. Fade the noise of Week 13 and buy back into the rookie.
(NEW) Emmanuel Sanders - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 30.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -136/BetOnline -114): Sanders is likely to see a ton of Avonte Maddox in coverage this week, according to PFF’s WR/DB database, and it’s a matchup we plain and simple want to attack with such low prop totals on the board. Maddox has allowed 29-of-47 passing for 395 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, which is good for a 102.7 QB Rating, and we’ve already seen Sanders average 5.5 targets per game in Taysom Hill’s two non-Denver starts this season. Sanders posted receiving lines of 5-4-66 (21.7% target share, 2nd in targets behind Thomas) and 6-5-39 (15.3% target share, tied for 2nd in targets with Tre’Quan Smith). You won’t find much on Sanders from a fantasy perspective, but even without Hill under center he has 38+ receiving yards in all but one non-Denver game since Week 3, going 5-4-56, 9-6-93, 14-12-122, 5-4-38, 1-1-5 (game where Brees got hurt, Winston came in), 5-4-66 and 6-5-39. He's not a household name anymore at this point in his career, but I believe these prop numbers are ripe for the picking.
Dalvin Cook - Under 83.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -112): Full disclosure - I want Dalvin Cook to go over this rushing total badly, being that he’s a vital cog on one of my six fantasy playoff teams entering Week 14. But the numbers simply don’t back up the case for Cook here. The most rushing yards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed all season in a game has been 59 (!), and that was to good ole Christian McCaffrey all the way back in Week 2. In fact, that was the only game all season where the Bucs have allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing back. Teams simply cannot run on the Bucs, and that’s ok. Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel defense has been exploited as of late by the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, so whether it’s just the matchup with the front seven or a tactic to attack the secondary, we have two good reasons to fade Cook in this spot, not to mention the Minnesota Vikings are touchdown road dogs and facing a motivated Bucs squad coming off a bye week and back to back losses.
Jonathan Taylor - Over 52.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -134): I’ve mentioned a few times on this column recently that it’s the time of the year to be buying rookies. This is especially not just in fantasy football, but also in the player prop market. The Wisconsin product has tallied 42 opportunities and 249 yards in the past two weeks alone, and the Las Vegas Raiders just made perennial backup Ty Johnson look like the next coming of Gayle Sayers. Both Johnson and New York Jets teammate Josh Adams ran roughshod over the Raiders in Week 13 to the tune of 178 rushing yards (5.93 yards per carry), more than one full yard than Las Vegas’ already pathetic 4.71 yards per carry allowed mark on the season (fifth worst). Taylor has already proven he can gash weak run defenses, going for 90 and 91 against the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans, respectively, and we only need him to get just a little more than that half of that in a plus matchup in Week 14. Taylor's rushing prop line is simply incorrect, and we will be taking advantage.
Austin Ekeler - Under 54.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -130): The Atlanta Falcons are fifth in yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs (3.7 YPC) and third in rushing fantasy points allowed per game (9.2) - behind only the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers - according to Sharp Football Analysis, while they are 27th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (11.4). I expect Ekeler to be heavy involved through the air in this Week 14 matchup against the pass-funnel Falcons secondary, but we’ve already seen him splitting carries with guys like Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley this season and that’s all the more reason to fade his rushing prop total in this spot. Kelley was cleared of his questionable tag earlier in the week and Justin Jackson was also activated off IR, which adds potential for carries to be allocated elsewhere. The fact he has totaled just 36 and 44 yards on the ground in the past two weeks with neutral matchups against the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills make this a clear play here.
DeVante Parker - Under 57.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -110): The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 14’s matchup with the Miami Dolphins with the single greatest DL/OL mismatch in the NFL. Chris Jones and Kansas City’s eighth-ranked defensive line will get the chance to tee off against Miami’s 31st ranked offensive line in this AFC contest, as the Chiefs currently rank third in QB knockdown percentage and 11th in pressure percentage, according to Establish The Run’s Brandon Thorne. Why does this matter for Parker? For starters, Tua has openly admitted to not wanting to target wide receivers unless they are “wide open” and wideouts are getting separation at one of the league’s lowest rates against the Chiefs secondary. Parker’s efficiency with Tua has been borderline embarrassing, catching just four of eight targets in a Week 13 plus matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. In Tua’s past two full starts - where he wasn’t benched - Parker has 35 yards (Week 13) and 31 yards (Week 10). This is an easy fade.
Corey Davis - Over 63.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -125): The narrative surrounding the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 will be most certainly around “De-Hember” and Derrick Henry’s seemingly annual dominance of the winter months. But what most won’t mention is the fact that Titans games are averaging the fifth-most combined snaps (132.8) this season and the most points (57.1), also ranking eighth-fastest in neutral pace situations over the past month. The Week 2 matchup between the Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars combined for 133 plays and 63 points, and we can again expect elevated play volume and point potential in this AFC South rematch. The Jaguars have given up 79 catches and 1,035 receiving yards to opposing wideouts over their past five games. Davis, on the other hand, is benefiting from both stacked boxes against Henry and top DB’s constantly chasing around A.J. Brown. Davis has now topped 63.5 yards in four straight games and five of his past six. Let’s not overthink this one here.
A.J. Brown - Over 57.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -143): Another Titans wide receiver, and another fade against the Jaguars’ league-worst secondary. Only six defenses in the league have allowed more 20+ yard completions than Jacksonville, which has been without its top two DB's the past few weeks. Brown turned in 87 receiving yards in the Titans Week 13 loss to the Cleveland Browns, and that was a game where he left early and had to have his ankle taped up in order to return. Most of the Titans’ production in that Browns game came in garbage time, where the team was clearly happy to use Brown as a decoy and not overload their star and risk further injury. I mentioned this on our NFL Week 14 Player Props podcast and it bears repeating again here: Brown’s prop line should NEVER be set below that of Davis, regardless of recent box scores and game logs. Brown now has 98 and 87 yards in his past two games and draws a plus matchup in good weather with the Titans having the highest implied team total of the week. Sign me up.
Allen Robinson - Over 71.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): We are going back to weekly well with Robinson, who simply can’t do enough to earn more respect from the sports books and get a higher line set here. Robinson has now tallied receiving lines of 7-6-75 and 13-8-74 in his past two games with Mitch Trubisky, and he gets arguably his best draw of the 2020 season facing a Bradley Roby-less Houston Texans secondary in Week 14. Indianapolis Colts’ wideouts combined for 167 yards on 17 targets in Week 13, including 8-110-1 by T.Y. Hilton, and in two previous games without Roby this year we saw them burned by both Davante Afams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). Robinson has at least six catches in five consecutive games now, and I don’t hate a play on over 5.5 receptions if you can find decent juice on that prop, but I prefer the yards here in a potential shootout spot with a Texans secondary that ranks 30th in the league in allowing 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
David Montgomery - Over 65.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): We’re also going back to the well with another Chicago Bears player in Week 14, and that indeed is the reinvigorated Montgomery, who has now compiled 254 total yards in his past two games. The Texans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields this season and while this could be seen as a hedge against our Robinson prop above, I believe both Bears stars can easily clever this total in just over a half of action on Sunday. Houston has also allowed the most touches to running backs overall this year, as well as allowing an NFL-worst 139.8 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Montgomery, on the other hand, comes into Soldier Field averaging 19.1 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. Volume and matchup are enough to keep things simple and back Montgomery yet again despite his early season struggles. The Texans are also getting gashed by backs through the air, so a play on his rushing + receiving yards is also viable here.
Michael Gallup - Over 3.5 receptions AND Over 49.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -149/-120): Could this be the proverbial “get right” spot for the Dallas Cowboys offense in Week 14 here? It sure is possible, especially considering the Andy Dalton revenge game narrative against the Cincinnati Bengals - in Cincinnati - and the fact that these same Bengals put pressure on quarterbacks at the lowest rate in the NFL. The reason I’m focusing on Gallup’s props here isn’t only because of his past two games, where he’s posted lines of 8-6-41 and 11-7-86 against the Washington Football Team and the Baltimore Ravens. It’s more of a play on Gallup’s situation and that of fellow wideouts Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, who will line up on the outside and slot, respectively, with William Jackson and Mackensie Alexander, probably the best two defensive players the Bengals have. Gallup benefits from a plus matchup and heavy volume (19 targets in Weeks 12-13), making this double dip prop very beatable in this spot at Paul Brown Stadiumn.
DK Metcalf - Over 80.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): Do I really need to give you the numbers here? Metcalf is 9-3 to his receiving prop overs this season and already leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,119. Is that enough? No? OK, well might I also mention that the New York Football Jets rank 31st in adjusted pass defense and are actually top 10 in adjusted run defense. This is a true “pass funnel” defense folks, just like with the Falcons situation that we discussed. Metcalf has also topped 90 yards in eight of 12 games this season and has been uber-efficient with a 2.2 yards per route run (top 15 in the NFL). Metcalf’s matchup with Jets DB Lamar Jackson (no, not that Lamar Jackson), who clocks in at a 4.58 40-yard dash time compared to DK’s 4.33 mark, is borderline mouth-watering. Jackson ranks in the bottom third of the league in target rate per coverage snap (15%), catch rate allowed (71%) and yards per coverage snap (1.7). Case in point, Metcalf is in a smash spot and should be locked in to your Week 14 DFS lineups as well.
Calvin Ridley - Over 74.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): No Julio Jones? Not a problem. Ridley is a top 5 WR talent in the NFL regardless of his quarterback’s Julio Jones splits and is going to see massive volume in a game that projects to be one of the fastest-paced matchups on the Week 14 slate. The Falcons’ last two games are averaging the sixth-fastest neutral pace and the team is passing at a 67% clip with its games within one score. The Falcons’ stout run defense is causing opponents to air it out against their pass-funnel secondary, too, and on the other side of the ball we get a Los Angeles Chargers squad ranking third in combined plays (134.2) per game and looking to bounce back in a big way following their embarrassing 45-0 defeat at the hands of Cam Newton and the New England Patriots in Week 13. Ridley leads the Falcons with 24 targets that have traveled 20+ yards this season and although the Chargers are above-average at defending opposing wideouts, I’m willing to bet simply on talent and volume here.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Kyler Murray Over 34.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -134)