Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 136-96
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-6
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Total: 144-102 (58.5%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Total = 13-10 (56.5%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 149-106 (58.4%)
Calvin Ridley - Over 83.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -112): Expect a high pace, high number snaps and heavy volume in this game on both sides. Atlanta Falcons games rank top 10 in combined snaps both during the last month and for the year. They also rank top 10 in situation-neutral pace, throwing at the fifth-highest situation-neutral rate (second highest over the last month), according to Establish The Run’s Pat Thorman. Most of the same can be said for the Kansas City Chiefs as well, and with two pass-first offenses facing off in Week 16 we can confidently look toward Atlanta alpha Calvin Ridley to churn out his fourth straight (!) 100+ yard game. Ridley now has 90+ in four of his past five games and is averaging an absurd 131.7 yards from Weeks 13-15. His targets have also steadily increased in those three weeks, going from 10 to 12 to 14 and although the Chiefs present a tough matchup against opposing wideouts, we are simply betting on both talent and volume to prevail in this spot for the road dog Dirty Birds.
Travis Kelce - Over 6.5 receptions (FanDuel -134): Another alpha WR who just happens to be labeled as “TE” on his team’s depth chart, Travis Kelce is a strong candidate to finish as the NFL leader in receiving yards this season despite playing in the same offense as Tyreek Hill. Kelce hauled in eight of 12 targets in Week 15 in a game where the Kansas City Chiefs held a comfortable lead throughout, and his Week 16 opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, have allowed a league-worst 78.4% catch rate on tight end targets. With the Chiefs publicly acknowledging Hill’s injury and saying that they will “play it smart” with their star wideout, look no further than Kelce to pick up the slack and post his eight consecutive game with 8+ catches. Kelce now has double digit targets in six of his past seven games and has recorded no less than eight receptions or 68 yards during that span. I’ll take the over on 6.5 here over the yards, although I wouldn’t argue against either due to a possible cap on Hill’s usage and the overall matchup.
David Montgomery - Over 80.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -125): Montgomery has been on an absolute tear as of late, rushing 32 (!) times for 146 yards in Week 15 as this Chicago Bears offense continues to capitalize on lowly defenses. Montgomery will look to take advantage of yet another pamper-soft run defense in Week 16 as the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing a truly pathetic 154.8 rushing yards per game over the past five weeks. Normally I tend to shy away from rushing over props once they enter the 80’s or higher, but with Cordarrelle Patterson banged up (three straight DNP’s to close the week) and no one else to seemingly share the load with Montgomery, I expect another bell cow day from the Iowa State alum. Montgomery is now averaging 108.5 rushing yards per game over the past month and has eclipsed 100+ in three of his past four with long runs of 80 and 57 yards mixed in. The once underwhelming plodder is having himself a breakout second half and carrying fantasy teams to championships in the process.
Devine Ozigbo - Under 47.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -112): The Jacksonville Jaguars have officially benched Gardner Minshew, named Mike Glennon their starter and ruled out star back James Robinson for Week 16. Enter Devine MF-ing Ozigbo, who has nine career carries for 27 yards to his MF-ing name and hasn’t had a single rushing attempt in all of 2020. So why does DraftKings have his rushing prop at 47.5? I suppose it’s because Ozigbo "should" assume the early-down work left behind by Robinson while Dare Ogunbowale plays on primarily passing downs. It is Ogunbawale, however, who had two carries for 17 yards in Week 15. Not to mention this Week 16 matchup against the Chicago Bears on the ground is not a good one, to say the least. We definitely assume risk in garbage time carries piling up for a team insistent upon running out the clock on the 2020 season, but still, this under is just too tasty to resist for a guy who hasn’t had a single carry since December 29th, 2019. I'll play this prop down to at least 40 yards.
Darius Slayton - Over 36.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -137): Darius Slayton is on my short list of uber-talented receivers who simply can’t get any luck with stable quarterback play. Slayton managed to pile up a team-high 74 yards on nine targets in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns, and with Daniel Jones back under center I expect him to be heavily targeted yet again in Week 16 against the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary is banged up and will be without both perimeter corners in Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters in this contest, leaving Marlon Humphrey to man the slot with backups on the outside. Jones has shown a propensity to sling it deep to Slayton - albeit with varied success - dating back to the duo’s rookie season together in 2019 and with negative game script and potential junk time drives/plays I’ll bet on the team’s most talented receiver to clear an extremely low total. Slayton’s fantasy projection puts him at roughly 54 receiving yards overall and that gives us a near 20-yard edge on betting the over here.
Mark Andrews - Over 3.5 receptions AND Over 48.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -159/-112): Mark Andrews, who now has at least five receptions and 61 yards in four straight games since fellow Baltimore Ravens tight end Nick Boyle was placed on IR. The New York Giants have been a tough matchup for opposing offenses for most of 2020, but they’ve actually been below-average at defending tight ends this year. The Giants rank bottom 10 in catch rate (71.3%) allowed to tight ends and rank just 19th overall in yards allowed per target (7.7) to the position. Andrews is averaging roughly seven targets per game over the past month and has posted long receptions of 27, 39 and 31 over his past three contests. We saw Austin Hooper’s 2020 campaign seemingly resurrected in Week 15 with the Cleveland Browns tight end posting 6-5-41 and I expect Andrews to do even more damage while operating as Lamar Jackson’s de facto WR1 in this emerging Ravens offense. BetOnline also has this prop at four receptions -114.
Diontae Johnson - Over 6.5 receptions AND Over 62.5 receiving yards (DraftKings +122/FanDuel -112): Diontae Johnson is still probably best remembered for his infamous primetime benching in the first half of Week 14, but what you should actually remember him by is his elite target share/volume. Diontae’s 13 targets in Week 15 gave him double-digit targets in seven of his past nine games. It’s actually seven of eight if you exclude the “benching game". The second-year wideout now sports a 27.1% target per route run, trailing only Davante Adams’ 30.9% (!). Diontae’s Week 16 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts looks tough on paper, sure, but given his hefty work near the line of scrimmage against a zone-heavy team, I believe this fits directly into what Diontae does best. The former Toledo product now has eight or more catches in four of his past five - or in four straight if you again exclude the "benching game" - and with that game left out he also has 70+ yards in four of his last six and six of his last eight. Fire up the double dip.
James Conner - Under 41.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -118): Where in the world is James Conner these days? The former Pittsburgh Steelers bell cow back has seemingly faded into the 2020 abyss with a plethora of lackluster performances over the past month. Take away his 13-89 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Conner has posted extremely poor rushing lines of 10-18 (1.8 yards per carry), 13-36 (2.8 ypc) and 9-22 (2.4 ypc) over his past three games. Those games, believe it or not, came against subpar rushing defenses in the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys. Steelers coaches publicly lauded Benny Snell’s 18-84-1 performance in their loss to the Bengals in Week 15 as the former Kentucky star ripped off a 29-yard gain and averaged 4.7 yards per tote, albeit in a losing effort. I expect Snell to get his fair share of snaps and touches in this game, too, against a stout Indianapolis Colts front seven that has stymied opposing running backs all season long. It’s possible we’ve seen the end of Conner’s days as a starting back in Pittsburgh. The under is already quite low here, but not low enough.
Mike Davis - Under 3.5 receptions (FanDuel -148): Long gone are the days of Mike Davis operating as “CMC Lite” for this Carolina Panthers offense. Davis has gone from once seeing 16 carries and seven targets per game to now seeing roughly 12 carries and four targets per game, according to Sharp Football Analysis. His snap count has also fallen below 60% in three of his past five games, ceding way to more playing time for the rookie running back Rodney Smith, who saw a career-high in snaps against the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. The Washington Football Team is allowing just 3.9 receptions per game to opposing backs, the third-best mark in the NFL, and with Davis losing pass-catching duties to Smith in recent weeks this makes under 3.5 receptions a no-brainer play. Davis now has three or less catches in three of his past four games and with Carolina out of playoff contention and in "talent evaluation mode" I expect them to continue working in Smith here while giving the veteran Davis more plays off.
Jalen Hurts - Over 55.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -118): In Week 16 we’ll be going for our third straight week of cashing the over on Jalen Hurts’ rushing prop, and frankly I don’t believe the sports books have adjusted this number up high enough. We saw both Kyler Murray and Lamara Jackson run roughshod over this Dallas Cowboys this season to the tune of 74 and 94 rushing yards, respectively, and Hurts has now himself totaled 29 carries for 169 yards over the past two weeks. He added 11 carries for 63 yards against an above-average Arizona Cardinals defense in Week 15, too, and now gets to face a Cowboys defensive unit ranking fourth-worst in the league according to NumberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics and also ranking a lowly 25th in yards per play allowed. Hurts, who has been operating as half-runner, half-passer over these past two weeks, should also benefit from Dallas’ 4.9 yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs this year, in addition to 19.4 fantasy rushing points allowed to running backs.
Sleepy J's Best Bet Bonus Prop: Russell Wilson - Over 22.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -112)