Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. For a list of my top player props for Week 17's early afternoon slate (10 plays/7 games total), click here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 147-97
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-7
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Total: 155-104 (59.8%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Total = 13-10 (56.5%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 160-107 (59.9%)
(NEW) Justin Herbert - Over 245.5 passing yards (FanDuel -110): What I love about this specific prop even more is that Herbert himself is just 340 passing yards away from breaking the NFL rookie record, and he gets a chance to make history against backups in this spot at Arrowhead Stadium. Although we don’t have Keenan Allen (hamstring) or Hunter Henry (COVID) for this matchup, we still have “Big Mike” Williams, Jalen Guyton, XFL star Donald Parham and Austin Ekeler to gobble up Herbert’s targets and help the young kid get to 340+. Need one more thing to love? FanDuel Sportsbook has this line set at a lowly 245.5 (-110) despite Herbert easily eclipsing that total in Week 16 (253) and Week 15 (314), as well as and totaling 311 against Chiefs starters in his NFL debut back in September. He’s hit this in 11 of 14 games this season.
TY Hilton - Over 56.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -112): The artist known as “T.Y.” had just three catches in Week 16, but he was still able to tally 60+ receiving yards for the fifth straight week and also his fifth straight week with at least five targets. We’ve seen some fluctuation in recent weeks with Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal jostling for WR2 honors in this offense, but it’s the veteran Hilton who has held steady as Philip Rivers’ top dog in the passing game. Hilton’s Week 17 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, are a lowly 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR1’s, according to NumberFire, allowing 7.5 catches for 99.6 yards per game (!) to lead WR's in the process. Hilton has 6+ targets in four straight games - as well as four straight with a 20%+ target share - and at least seven targets in three of four.
Brandin Cooks - Over 69.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): Cooks is one of my absolute favorite DFS tournament plays for Week 17 as he gets ready to face a Tennessee Titans secondary ranking 30th of 32 NFL teams in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR1’s per game, according to Sharp Football Analysis. We all remember Davante Adams’ 11-142-3 thrashing in the snow in Week 16, sure, but this Titans backend has also been flat out embarrassed by the likes of Marvin Jones (10-112-1), Michael Pittman (7-101), Rashard Higgins (6-95-1), Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-92-1) and T.Y. Hilton (4-81-1), to name a few. Cooks has a straight up ridiculous 366 air yards on just 25 targets over his last three games and is coming off an uber-impressive 10-7-141 line against a tougher secondary in that of the Cincinnati Bengals.
A.J. Brown - Over 61.5 receiving yards AND Score A Touchdown (DraftKings -141/-112): It’s not often we throw a TD prop on a double dip - and if you’ve listened/read my content this year you know I’m not big on TD props, either - but hear me out for a second. Brown is on the verge of his own special Week 17 record, finding himself just one end zone trip shy of the Titans’ single-season TD record. The Texans’ Bradley Roby-less secondary can’t stop a soul these days either, allowing a league-worst 19.7 fantasy points per game to enemy WR1s, while Brown himself has ripped through this defense in three career matchups to the tune of 8-114-1, 4-124-1 and 5-58-2. The Titans can both clinch the division crown and a home playoff game with a win, and I expect them to get the ball early and often to Henry and Brown.
Davante Adams - Over 87.5 receiving yards AND Over 6.5 receptions (DraftKings -118/-177): Adams is on the verge of quite a few Packers records himself in Week 17, in addition to being 132 receiving yards away from beating out Stefon Diggs (who might sit out Week 17) for the NFL receiving yardage crown. Adams is 191 yards away from his own Packers record, and Green Bay will both clinch the NFC’s number one overall seed and secure a first round bye with a win here. If you couple that with Aaron Rodgers’ 2020 MVP final act, I don’t see how Davante isn’t heavily involved from start to finish here. Adams is averaging a truly elite 102.1 receiving yards per game through 13 games this season, posting 115+ yards in three of his past four and seven total games with 100+ yards. I’m firing on the double dip here with confidence.
Allen Robinson - Over 75.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -106): Robinson isn’t quite on the same elite level of Adams, sure, but he’s damn close. Robinson has posted 74+ receiving yards in Mitch Trubisky’s past six starts, including impressive lines of 10-103, 9-123-1 and 10-123-1. Robinson will actually see more of Kevin King in this game than Jaire Alexander, further boosting his Week 17 over prospects. King is allowing the 11th-most yards per target (10.62) among DB’s who have faced at least 20+ targets, and over the past five games Robinson is commanding a boss-like 30.5% target share with a 33.3% deep target share and team-leading 36.7% red zone target share. The Bears simply need a win to get in the playoffs, and they have no shot at doing so without featuring Robinson early and very, very often in this game.
Mitch Trubisky - To Throw An Interception (DraftKings -139): It’s hard to ignore the peripheral numbers and matchup history between Trubisky and the Green Bay Packers here in this spot. Trubisky has now thrown an INT in back to back games and actually threw two picks back on November 29th in these teams’ last meeting. Trubisky threw three picks in two games against Green Bay in 2019, marking three straight games with an INT against his NFC North rivals. With Jaire Alexander playing elite football and safety Darnell Savage (4 INT’s) leading the team in the backend, I expect the wheels to come off for Trubisky in a game Chicago needs to win and will likely be playing from behind in. Give me a negative game script against a tough secondary, and I’ll gladly bet close to even odds on Mitch to throw it to the other team.
Jerry Jeudy - Over 39.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -134): Are you a glass half-empty or glass half-full type of sports bettor? I consider myself the latter, to be honest, and quite frankly you need to consider yourself the same to feel confident in betting the over on Jerry Jeudy after a Week 16 outing in which he recorded five drops. I’d rather focus on the fact that Jeudy saw a whopping 15 targets instead, however, and now faces a pathetic Raiders secondary allowing a bottom-seven rank of 1.93 fantasy points per target. Jeudy still leads these young Broncos in targets (106 - next closest WR is Tim Patrick with 75), yards (716) and yards per catch (15.2). He has topped 39.5 receiving yards in two of his past three and I believe Denver will look to give their first-round pick a chance to rebound and shine in this regular-season finale. This prop total is just way too low here for a young talent with as high draft equity as Jeudy has.
Daesean Hamilton - Over 29.5 receiving yards AND Over 2.5 receptions (FanDuel -118/DraftKings -125): The loss of KJ Hamler opened up plenty opportunity for DaeSean in Week 16, giving the third-year slot wideout a season-high nine targets, five catches and 77 yards. Facing another week with a full-time role, I don’t believe that the books have set Hamilton’s props high enough to reflect his playing time. Hamilton has three games with at least five targets, posting at least four catches and 33 yards in all three of those contests, including lines of 5-4-82, 6-4-33 and 9-5-77. The Penn State product fell out of favor in Denver after his rookie year, but let’s not forget he closed the 2018 season with four straight games of at least five catches and 40 yards. I’m willing to bet on opportunity/matchup to clear these low totals.
Nelson Agholor - Over 49.5 receiving yards AND Over 3.5 receptions (FanDuel -112/-130): Agholor deserves at least one vote for 2020 comeback player of the year. A guy who was seemingly known for nothing but bad drops and missed opportunities, Agholor has emerged as the Raiders’ true WR1, seeing at least six targets in six straight games and faces an absolutely decimated Broncos secondary in Week 17. Agholor, who is also playing on a one-year deal, will have plenty of motivation to show out yet again on Sunday and look to make it seven straight games with at least four or more receptions. Agholor has 21.3% of Las Vegas’ targets over that same span and has gone for 5+ catches and 100+ yards in two of his past three. I’ll bet on both matchup and opportunity for yet another double dip receiving prop at Mile High.
Darren Waller - Over 5.5 receptions AND Over 61.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -175/FanDuel -112): This is most likely the highest juiced prop I’ve given out on this column, but it’s for a specific reason. Waller is exactly six catches away from the Raiders’ single-season record owned by the legendary Tim Brown, and outside of making history on Sunday is the fact that the TE superstar has recorded at least 75 yards in four straight games and five of his past six. The former Georgia Tech product is averaging 7.5 receptions and 108 yards over the Raiders’ past six games as well, and he now faces an injury-riddled Broncos backend giving up the 11th-most yards to tight ends on the season. Waller has 7-70 and 6-107 in two of his past three matchups with Denver, and with personal history at stake here, I expect him to show out.
George Kittle - Over 54.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -125): Did you somehow forget the fact that Kittle and CJ Beathard played college football together and share the infamous college-to-NFL shower narrative? Kittle leads the 49ers in targets, catches, yards and first-down conversions on passes from former college teammate Beathard this season, and he posted a more-than-solid receiving line of 5-4-92 in Week 16 despite running a route on just 62% of San Francisco dropbacks and playing only 50% of the snaps. His 24% target share in that game still led the team, however, and with Kittle one more week removed from his foot injury, I expect him to be fully healthy/motivated. Kittle is still leading the NFL with a 27.2% target per route run rate this year in limited action as well, all the more reason to like the over here.
Pizza Bet/Bonus Prop - Kyler Murray To Score 3+ Touchdowns (DraftKings +5000): Another pizza bet that will not be tracked on our official record for the season, but this is something I wanted to bring up nonetheless. Murray is just three rushing TD's away from breaking Cam Newton’s record (Cam is also two away himself from breaking his own record), and he has ran for 11 touchdowns already this year with two games of multiple rushing scores. It’s a long shot for sure, but that’s why we get it with 50:1 odds and the small chance that Arizona runs up the score against former AAF quarterback John Wolford. Murray’s new lower-body injury is obviously a concern here, but if the Cardinals have any playoff aspirations whatsoever, they will absolutely need Kyler to take off and run as much as possible in this late afternoon contest.