Chris Dell's Week 7 Player Props

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out 2-3 of my favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week.

Editor's note: I made the following player prop bets already this week using betonline.ag's player prop builder tool. Unfortunately, with this offshore book, they are known to not offer unders on various players and props. This being the case, you'll notice a lot of my props below are on overs. These over props, however, strongly correlate with my Week 7 fantasy rankings, which you can find here.

• Chris' Overall Prop Record:  46-33
• Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 4-1
• Total Record: 50-34 (59.5%)

Weekly Prop Article Record (Chris + Sleepy):

• Week 1: 0-0
• Week 2: 10-4
• Week 3: 12-4
• Week 4: 9-8
• Week 5: 10-7
• Week 6: 9-11
• Total: 50-34 (59.5%)

Weekly Podcast Prop Record (Chris Only):

• Week 1: 0-1
• Week 2: 2-1
• Week 3: 0-0
• Week 4: 3-0
• Week 5: 2-1
• Week 6: 0-0
• Week 7: 2-0
• Total = 9-3 (75%)

• (NEW) Josh Jacobs - Under 68.5 rushing yards (buy down to 63.5): Tampa Bay is allowing a league-low 4.6 yards per play and has held opponents to a league-high 25 drives without a first down. The Buccaneers are first in the league in both pass defense EPA (19.6) and run defense EPA (7.9), and just 23.0% of the rushing attempts against Tampa Bay have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league, as per Sharp Football Analysis (league average is 35.3%) The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have allowed just five carries to gain 10 or more yards on the season, also the fewest in the league, as well as allowing a league-low 2.9 YPC to running backs. The most yards rushing they have allowed to an individual back is 59 yards. WHAT OTHER STATS DO YOU NEED? The play is simple here. You trust the process and you play Jacobs under, just as I said on both our NFL Week 7 Money Picks/Player Props podcast and NFL Twitter/Sunday Live Stream.

• (NEW) Ronald Jones - Over: 63.5 rushing yards (buy up to 68.5): The Raiders are 28th in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (18.4) and 30th allowed  5.2 yards per carry to backs (30th), now into Las Vegas steps Mr. Ronald Jones II, who has rushed for 100-yards in three consecutive games and is averaging a stellar 4.9 yards per carry this year. "Rojo" has now tallied 25.3% of the Tampa Bay offensive yardage, which ranks sixth among all running backs. Jones has 26, 20, and 25 touches the past three weeks with Leonard Fournette sidelined and even with Fournette back in Week 8 I expect that the Bruce Arians leash on Jones has been extended a few inches. The Bucs are big favorites on the road and the Raiders have dealt all week with COVID-19 issues along their offensive line. Game flow and projected script, in addition to the matchup, suggest that in fact Rojo should be the running back with the higher player prop yardage total, and not Josh Jacobs on the other side.

• (NEW) DK Metcalf - Over 68.5 receiving yards (buy up to 78.5): Metcalf has 90+ receiving yards in all five games this season. Got it? Ok, let's go. Oh, you want more? Ok, sure. DK's 39 targets lead the team, but did you know his 496 receiving yards are 156 (!) more than fellow teammate Tyler Lockett? DK is young and gifted, but the market simply hasn't caught up. Metcalf ranks second in the league in 154.8 "AirYac" (air yards + yards after the catch) per game heading into Week 7, as per Matthew Freedman of the Action Network, trailing only Calvin Ridley (160.2) and ahead of the likes of Jamison Crowder (145.3), Terry McLaurin (141.8) and Allen Robinson (132.5). In this matchup, Arizona is also allowing a league-low 21.9% completion rate (7-of-32) to opposing passers on throws over 15 yards downfield, but that's with facing less-quarterbacks such as Garoppolo, Haskins, Stafford, Bridgewater, Flacco and Dalton. No quarterback has more touchdown passes on attempts of that depth than Russel Wilson (eight), of course, and despite the Cardinals playing solid defense against wide receivers this year they still have given up big games to the likes of Terry McLaurin (7-125-1), Jamison Crowder (8-116-1), Robby Anderson (8-99-0) and Amari Cooper (7-79-1). I said on Twitter, in all seriousness too, that if DK Metcalf's prop came in under 80 for this game that it would be an automatic fire. Well, it's actually under 70 at DraftKings, so go ahead and stock up on that criminally low total. If DK could burn Stephon Gilmore for 90+ yards and a long score then he will have no problem doing damage against Patrick Peterson and company in Week 7 on primetime.

• (NEW) Christian Kirk - Over 45.5 receiving yards (buy up to 47.5): The Seahawks have allowed 167 additional yards to the WR position compared to any other defense this season in fantasy, as per PFF's Ian Hartitz on Twitter, and they've achieved that metric despite already having had their bye week. Seattle is also 30th in the league in defending those downfield type of pass attempts, allowing passers to complete 58.5% (24-of-41), and Kyler Murray gets another great opportunity to improve his passing output as Seattle is 27th in yards per attempt (7.9 Y/A) and 22nd in completion rate allowed (66.9%). Kirk cashed our 45.5 yard over ticket on him last week in another primetime spot, breaking loose for 86 yards and two touchdowns, including an 80-yard touchdown bomb. While some will point to the box score and say that Kirk had only two catches on three targets in that game, keep in mind that Murray completed only nine passes and threw it just 24 times in a game the Cardinals trailed big from end to end. Kirk is still second overall on Arizona with averaging roughly five targets per game, and prior to the Cowboys blowout game, was trending up in total targets for three straight weeks (4-5-7). Kirk is our type of guy that needs only one play to off such a low total, and in a game that sports the highest total on the slate and is projected to be the fasted-paced matchup as well, it makes me love all of the weapons, especially those whose totals are less than 50 yards.

• (NEW) Jared Goff - Under 245.5 passing yards (buy down to 240.5): Goff has been absolutely brutal in his career against Chicago, last year going 11-of-18 for 173 yards and in 2018 going 20-of-44 for 180 yards (4.1 ypa) and an 11.1 QBR. In those two games he has combined for zero touchdowns and five interceptions. This Chicago secondary is still borderline elite. Case in point: games involving the Bears average 40.7 combined points, the fewest in the league, and the Rams are also allowing a league-low 5.4 yards per passing play while Chicago is allowing 5.7 yards per passing play (fifth). The Bears sport the third-best NFL clip in allowing opposing quarterbacks just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, and we've also seen Sean McVay and the Rams run the most run-heavy neutral script offense in the entire league. Now the Rams are back at home, and the way to attack Chicago's defense is on the ground. Look for Los Angeles to attempt to establish the run here, and even if they struggle to do so, the Rams' stellar defense will keep Nick Foles & Co from putting up too many points on other end. I expect this to be one of the lowest scoring games on the slate and will bet on Goff to go for three for three in career games against the Chicago Bears with just180 passing yards or less. 

• (NEW) Jamaal Williams - Over 55.5 rushing yards (buy up to 58.5): This number didn't come out until we received the official news of Aaron Jones being ruled out, but I gave it out officially on the NFL Sunday Q&A Live Stream that Sleepy and I do each Sunday morning since I didn't have enough time to write it up here. I did want to include my handicap overall, which is pretty simple and straightforward: attack the Houston rushing defense with full force. I was targeting an over on Aaron Jones' rushing total all week, and in Williams' we get a solid replacement-level back who was able to gain 63 rushing yards on eight carries alone in the Packers' Week 2 victory over the Detroit Lions. Williams also had at least 59 rushing yards in the three games last year that he received 12 or more carries. Houston is allowing a league-high 6.5 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts, as well as allowing 31 carries of 10 more yards, the most in the league. The Texans have also allowed 605 yards rushing on those carries, the most in the league. The next closest team (Cincinnati) has allowed 455. While I do expect Williams to somewhat split work with the rookie AJ Dillon, he has the continuity in this offense and has out-touched Dillon 46-13 this season. Fire up Williams with confidence as a top 20 RB this week.

• Terry McLaurin - Over 78.5 receiving yards (buy up to 81.5): My favorite play of the week on the main slate (outside of our weekly ritual Metcalf prop, of course) is "Scary Terry," or also fondly known to some as "McLaurin F1." McLaurin's air yard share of 43% ranks third in the NFL behind only Darius Slayton (45%) and Marquise Brown (44%). Rounding out the top five there is our boy of course, D.K. Metcalf (43%), along with D.J. Moore (42%) and Adam Thielen (41%), as per Pro Football Focus. I don't need to sit here and tell you how bad the Dallas Cowboys defense is, but they are bad. The Cowboys rank 29th in fantasy receiving points allowed to opposing WR1 options (22.0) and are allowing 104.4 yards per game to those options (31st), according to Sharp Football Analysis. McLaurin, who also ranks fifth in the league in targets (58), has received at least seven targets in every single game this season and saw a whopping 12 targets last week in a slow-paced slugfest of a match between themselves and the division rival New York Giants, who actually boast an underrated defense and premier shadow corner in James Bradberry. McLaurin has no defensive back to fear in Week 7, and he will be locked into my DFS/DK lineups accordingly as my #6 overall fantasy WR.

• Kenny Golladay - Over 74.5 receiving yards (buy up to 77.5): I was hesitant to back Kenny Golladay's over last week because I wasn't sure how much the Lions would actually need to throw against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a likely positive game script and coming off a bye. But even in that type of game environment, "Babytron" erupted for 105 receiving yards on just six targets, posting a long catch of 48 yards along the way. What the box score doesn't tell you is that Golladay also lost 20+ potential yards on a DPI penalty that might've given him the top overall fantasy day of Week 6. Well, Golladay has a chance for an encore performance in Week 7 against a pitiful Falcons secondary allowing a league-high 6.7 yards per play and 77.5% of the yardage gained against them through the air (second-most in the league). Atlanta has also allowed an NFL-high of 29 completions of 20 or more yards to add insult to injury here. Golladay is reeling in upwards of 35% of the Lions' air yards on the year with his next closest teammate at 16%. As per Establish The Run, eight different wide receivers have cleared 90 yards against the Falcons, who have allowed the NFL’s fifth most fantasy points to Golladay’s position. Golladay posted100+ receiving yards in three of his final four games with Stafford in 2019, and the duo is finally catching up to speed in the passing game and rekindling the old flame in Detroit. A plum matchup is all I need to bet this close to 80/81 overall.

• Stefon Diggs - Over 75.5 receiving yards (buy up to 78.5): In a rematch of AFC East divisional foes, Stefon Diggs comes into Week 7 just a month and a half after ripping the Jets for 8-86 on just nine targets for a hyper-efficient Week 1 showing. Diggs has now had five more games since then to develop chemistry with Josh Allen, as he has averaged 10 targets per game from Weeks 2-6. The New York Jets, on the other hand, are allowing a league-high 65.5% completion rate on throws over 15 yards downfield, more than 20% higher than the league rate. Allen has completed 62.9% of those throws over 15 yards as well (third in the league) and Diggs has caught 10-of-12 of those specific targets for 259 yards and a score. Diggs ranks seventh in the NFL in targets per game, sixth in team target share (27.7%) and 11th overall in targets per route run (TPRR). The Jets gave up a silly 6-131-1 line to DeAndre Hopkins this season already and have been experiencing major issues in their secondary for multiple years now. Diggs just needs one long catch to beat this prop, and in a get right spot following back-to-back losses in primetime, I believe Allen will come into this game with a chip on his shoulder and look to sling it to Diggs and Davis early and often here.

• Gabriel Davis - Over 46.5 receiving yards (buy up to 49.5): Call him "Stefon Diggs Lite," at least for Week 7 in this spot against the aforementioned Jets. New York's defense also ranks a lowly 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.48), 28th in yards per attempt (8.1 Y/A), and 30th in completion rate (71.8%) to opposing passers. When Brown sat out due to injury in Week 5, Davis played 100% of the team snaps, catching 5-of-9 targets for 58 yards. Two weeks prior he hauled in all four of his targets for 81 yards, including a long catch of 39 yards. Rumor has it in the Bills' media circles that John Brown will not be back with the club next season and that the franchise plans to slot Davis directly into that John Brown deep threat type of role. Davis, a talented rookie out of UCF, just needs one long reception from the gunslinger himself, Mr. Josh Allen, in order to pay off this prop, and with the injury to Brown, in addition to the get-right spot with a plus matchup on deck, this becomes one of my favorite prop plays of the week. I'd buy it all the way up to 50 yards.

• Kareem Hunt - Over 85.5 rushing yards (buy up to 86.5): The last time Kareem Hunt saw the Cincinnati Bengals he gashed his AFC North rivals on the ground to the tune of 86 rushing yards on just eight carries while Nick Chubb exploded for 22-124-2 in that same game. With no Nick Chubb in Week 7, expect head coach Kevin Stefanski to continue to emphasize the run after the Browns trounced the Bengals for 215 rushing yards and three rushing TDs in Week 2. That would only serve to favor Kareem Hunt here, who has dominated the team in touches (38) and snaps (81) over backups D'Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard. The Bengals have been eviscerated by opposing running backs to the tune of 5.19 yards per carry and 149.5 yards from scrimmage per game, setting up Hunt for a smash spot on the road here in this divisional tilt. Despite a ho-hum last two weeks with no rushing touchdowns and averaging less than four yards per carry against the Colts and the Steelers, Hunt is still averaging an above-average 4.7 yards per carry and cleared his questionable tag earlier this week than he has in those previous weeks. Hunt is locked in as my overall RB2.

• Devin Singletary - Under 15.5 carries (buy down to 14.5): We've struck out on betting Devin Singletary overs this year, as he's often been a late addition to my card and others' cards with our seemingly weekly ritual of Zack Moss practicing in full late in the week before being a surprising late scratch. Singletary couldn't even top 13.5 carries with no Moss in the lineup against the Rams in Week 3 in a game where the Bills led by multiple scores. He's topped this 15.5 mark just once all season, however, and with a potential blowout spot against the Jets here I believe the rookie Moss could get his biggest burn of the season out of the backfield. Moss was indeed back in action this past week, and despite Singletary getting a solid snap share he turned in a measly 11 touches for only 45 yards. With Moss active this year, Singletary has 14, 12, and 11 combined touches. While the Bills are in a get-right spot as a whole here against New York, I expect the passing game to do most of the damage in this ball game as the Jets' secondary is a bottom tier pass defense and Buffalo will want to get Josh Allen back on track after miserable consecutive outings on primetime television. I understand the line being set at 15.5 due to the lofty point spread, but the Bills just don't seem like a team that wants to run as often as most teams - even while leading by multiple scores - and could get Moss into a 50/50 split and have him serve as their primary goal-line back inside the 10 as well.

• James Conner - Over 63.5 rushing yards (buy up to 68.5):  My original play was going to be Derrick Henry under 85 yards in this game, but the more I looked at this game, the more I became bearish on that specific play. The Steelers defense will be without talented linebacker Devin Bush, and with what looks like sharp money coming in on the Titans, despite them missing their starting left tackle in this game, I could see a scenario where Henry easily averages less than three yards and still eclipses 90 yards due to his massive volume of carries. So what does this all have to do with James Conner? Well, for starters, the Tennessee Titans can actually be run on - as opposed to the Pittsburgh Steelers - as the Titans allow five yards per carry to running backs (ranks 27th in the NFL). Conner has had at least 18 touches in each of his last four games and draws a cake matchup in Week 7 here in this battle of unbeaten teams. Conner quietly has 100+ rushing yards in nine of his past 12 games spanning over 2020 and 2019, and this season specifically he has 100+ yards in three of his four healthy games. The only time he was held under 100 yards was to the Eagles two weeks ago, and we all know that Philadelphia simply doesn't allow much to any opposing running backs. We've got two bell cow backs in this game, and one comes with 20+ yards less on his total in a better matchup. That makes Conner the clear play for me here and one of my favorites on the upcoming main slate.

• JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson - Over 27.5 receiving yards AND Over 21.5 receiving yards (buy up to 29.5 and 23.5): Alright, ok, as we move 6-0 on our Washington running back receiving props I'm just going to reiterate a lot of what has been said already on my previous week prop write ups. Let's start with JD McKissic, who now has six or receptions in his past three games with Washington and the Checkdown King, Mr. Kyle Allen, averaging a league-low 9.6 yards per completed pass. McKissic has hauled in13-of15 targets during those past three weeks, and while Gibson could have a blowup game here against this putrid Cowboys defense, I still look for both backs to get a decent share of snaps and have opportunities both in the running game and passing game here. McKissic and Gibson are both receivers by trade, and as I said last week, "I wouldn't be surprised to see Gibson and McKissic combine for 10+ catches and 10+ targets." Same story applies here, and we might again need only half of that usage to clear these. The market still hasn't caught up to Allen's ridiculous RB checkdown tendencies. Gibson, on the other hand, has five targets in three straight games himself with receiving lines of 4-25, 4-24 and 4-82, and the talented rookie out of Memphis get his best matchup of the season here against Dallas. I'm firing up Gibson as a top 15 RB fantasy option this week and McKissic as a top 30 option, both obviously getting a boost in full PPR scoring formats.

• Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley - Over 5.5 receptions (buy up to 6): With Julio Jones back on the field and fully healthy, Ridley has still posted receiving lines of 9-130-2, 7-109-2, and 6-61-1 this year. Julio specifically played upwards of 80% of the snaps, registering eight catches on 10 targets for 137 yards and two scores. Ridley, on the other hand, now has 90+ yards and/or a touchdown in nine of his last ten games, and the Lions are giving up the NFL’s eighth most fantasy points per game to enemy wideouts. Ridley also leads all NFL wide receivers in air yards (837), ahead by115 yards over current Adam Thielen (722). As per Evan Silva of Establish The Run, Jones’ last six stat lines in games where he’s played at least 75% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps are 8/137/2, 2/24/0, 9/157/0, 7/78/0, 10/166/0, and 13/134/2. Jones and Ridley are the clear 1/2 options for this Atlanta passing attack and the Lions' man-to-man tendencies in the secondary make me like these both even more in a game that has one of the highest over/under totals in Week 7.

• Drew Lock - Under 222.5 passing yards (buy down to 217.5): Let's not overcomplicate this one fellas. Just around 34% of Drew Lock’s passing attempts have come on throws 15+ yards, which is the highest rate in the league. Lock is struggling with those throws down the field, however, going just 6-for-21 (28.6%) with zero touchdowns to two interceptions. Lock is also averaging just 8.7 yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket and 2.0 yards per attempt (!) under pressure - that difference, my friends, is the largest in the league and elite in its own right. To add insult to injury, the Kansas City Chiefs rank sixth in the league in blitz rate (34.4%) and seventh in the league in pressure rate (24.9%). Drew Lock hasn't topped 220 passing yards in a game all season, his highest outing coming when he threw for 216 yards in Week 1 in a 16-14 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Dating back to 2019 as well, and the fact that threw for more than 210 yards just once in five starts makes me like this prop even more since I circled it early in the week. Lock, in his five starts of 2019, threw for 177, 192, 208, 309 (vs. the Texans) and 134. With this underrated Chiefs secondary on tap and with Melvin Gordon back, look for Vic Fangio & the boys to run it early and often to drain clock and make a run for an upset victory. I don't think it'll mean a win for Denver in the end, but it will help us cash a ticket. As of 11 a.m. this morning the weather conditions are expecting to be "snowy" with a 36% chance of rain with 10mph winds at kickoff and moderate winds blowing diagonally across the field. With a home game at Mile High against Mahomes, I believe this situation will make Denver want to ground and pound even more, and while this type of weather can sometimes cause big plays to happen with defensive backs being on poor footing, I'd put my money that that happens on Kansas City's side of things and not Denver's side. I've seen varying numbers here, so shop around and get the highest under total you can. I'd recommend buying down to 217.5, probably 212.5 or close to 210 at the lowest.

• Keenan Allen - Over 5.5 receptions (buy up to 6): There's a few factors I want to take advantage of with this prop here. First off, the last time we saw Keenan Allen was on primetime in a loss to the Saints in which he left the game early with a back injury. It turns out those were just back spasms, however, and with the bye week coming for the Chargers last week, it looks as if Allen comes into Week 7 with a clean bill of health. Allen's target share has been elite like no other receiver this season with Justin Herbert under center. His targets per route run (TPRR) is number one in the NFL, and he's seeing a ridiculous 38.3% of his team's targets in those three games where he was healthy with Herbert as well. Enter the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank a lowly 24th in yards per target and 27th in catch rate, in addition to allowing an 85% catch rate to slot receivers. Jacksonville is also still without slot DB D.J. Hayden here, and while I could go on and on about Herbert's insane passing numbers this last month, I will just keep it simple and say that Allen has had no less than seven catches in any game with Herbert this year. I get that game script could try to kill this prop if the Chargers jump out to a massive lead and sit on the ball with the running backs here, but even then I'm confident in Allen being able to get to six catches minimum if we're working with just three quarters of full force offensive action. I did mention Mike Williams over 42.5 receiving yards on our NFL Week 7 Money Picks/Players Props podcast a few days ago as a play I liked, but upon further review of the numbers I just don't see his target share being consistent enough with Allen in the lineup to make that an official play here. I do still lean that way, but the game script issues I mentioned already give me more conviction on just riding with Allen as the alpha.

• DJ Chark - Over 4.5 receptions (buy up to 5): DJ Chark is starting to profile as one of the biggest buy low candidates in fantasy football right now, and I just don't understand this line for Week 7. In Week 6, Chark played 89% of the snaps and saw a massive14 targets thrown his way, just one less than his career high. The Chargers, despite a solid defense and secondary all around, have actually been quite supportive of opposing lead wideouts, allowing at least five catches to A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Robby Anderson, Mike Evans and Emmanuel Sanders. Chark also had 9-75-0 on 10 targets against the Chargers in 2019, and he didn't appear on the injury report late this week after doing so over the course of the last couple of games. Reports coming out late Saturday night and early Sunday morning indicate that Jacksonville would consider benching Gardner Minshew if he continues his woeful accuracy issues and poor QB play, so I expect Minshew to come out and lock onto his #1 wideout in a game in which the Jaguars are touchdown-plus road dogs. Pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson is also out for this game, leaving Minshew one less option in the target pecking order this week. Although Chark's usage was a bit up and down to start the year, I will buy into last week as a sign of things to come in a similar type of negative game script. Chark has at least seven catches in two of Jacksonville's last three games, and the one in between where he had just three catches he left that game early with an ankle injury. Even if Minshew is benched I still believe a guy like Mike Glennon, who is currently listed as backup, would lock onto his #1 WR in Chark.

• James Robinson - Over 3 receptions (buy up to 4): I mentioned in my DJ Chark prop that Chris Thompson was ruled out earlier this week, and even though we consider Thompson to be the main pass-catching back in whatever offense he's in, it's Robinson who has been the Jaguars' top receiving back for the course of the last month. Robinson has at least three catches in five straight games this season and has at least four catches in four straight games. I thought about double-dipping with the receiving yards here as well, but the number didn't seem soft enough to attack (yet). The Chargers actually rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams in fantasy receiving points per game to opposing running backs (15.2). Los Angeles is also allowing an average of 7.8 receptions for 50.2 receiving yards per game to opposing RB's, so I would gladly buy this line up to four if it moves between now and kickoff around 4:25 p.m. EST. Rookie Devine Ozigbo could make his first appearance of 2020 in this matchup, but after missing the first six weeks of action with a hamstring injury I just don't see him getting more than a handful of snaps or touches.

• *Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Over 42.5 receiving yards