It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out anywhere from one, two or three (or more!) of the favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, COVID-19 news etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week below. Make sure to also tune into our weekly Betting Predators Money Picks / Player Props podcast, which drops on the weekend, where Sleepy J and I run through our player prop betting process, as well as favorite plays, for each game on the upcoming NFL Sunday main slate.
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, BetDSI, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Record: 56-44
- Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 4-2
- Total Record: 60-46 (56.6%)
Weekly Prop Article Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Total: 60-46 (56.6%)
Weekly Podcast Prop Record (Chris Only):
- Week 1: 0-1
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Total = 9-4 (69.2%)
(NEW) Ezekiel Eilliott - Under 67.5 rushing yards, FanDuel -110 (buy down to 64.5): I'll mention the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints rushing defenses here below with a few under rushing props on Wayne Gallman and David Montgomery, respectively. The trend continues here with Ezekiel Elliott facing another elite rushing defense with the Philadelphia Eagles on tap in Week 8. Zeke has rushed for less than 55 yards in four of his past five games, while the Cowboys rank dead last in the NFL in rushing gains of 10+ yards. The Eagles will be more than happy to load the box and force James Madison legend (joking) Ben DiNucci to beat them. Philadelphia is holding opposing tailbacks to a paltry 3.3 yards per carry this season and we've even seen Dallas take Zeke out of games early when getting blown out by large margin. James Conner (15-44) and Joe Mixon (17-49) were similar bell cow-type backs who struggled against Philly, and game script also makes me love this play.
(NEW) Wayne Gallman - Under 37.5 rushing yards, DraftKings -112 (buy down to 34.5): As per Brandon Thorne of Establish The Run, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sport the second most advantageous matchups in Week 8 in terms of defensive line/offensive line matchups. To add insult to injury, the Giants could now be missing multiple starters against a top 10 pass-rushing defensive line and one of the top tier rushing defenses in the NFL. The Bucs have been utterly dominant against opposing running backs this season. Since Week 3 they've completely shut down enemy rushing games, holding Josh Jacobs to a measly 10-17 line last week, as well as Aaron Jones to 10-15 in Week 7, then David Montgomery to 10-29, Chargers RB's to 17-28 and Melvin Gordon to 8-26. I actually believe that Wayne Gallman can be just as serviceable as Devonta Freeman for the Giants, but I do not expect him to do much of anything on the ground and I will gladly play the matchup and numbers despite this extremely ugly/low total.
David Montgomery - Under 52.5 rushing yards, FanDuel -110 (buy down to 47.5): Weather, and specifically wind, are expected to play a big factor in the Windy City today, projects for 23 mph for this Saints-Bears matchup. With Foles struggling to find his receivers even more than usual, even with Allen Robinson clearing concussion protocol and expecting to play, I still don't expect that Montgomery, one of the worst in the league at breaking long gains and chunk plays, to have much success against a stout New Orleans defensive line. The Saints held Mike Davis to 12 rushing yards on 7 carries just two weeks ago and have presented one of the NFL's toughest matchups for opposing running backs over the last couple of seasons. Montgomery, even in a solid matchup spot against the Rams in Week 7, gained just 48 yards, and he posted just 58 / 3.1 yards per carry mark against Carolina's run-funnel defense and putrid front four in Week 6. Montgomery has topped 50 yards rushing just once since Week 3. Need I say more?
Le'Veon Bell To Score a TD - FanDuel +100: Narrative street, here we come! I brought this prop up on our Betting Predators Week 8 Preview podcast episode this past week, and it bears repeating here again. The handicap is quite simple as well. The Kansas City Chiefs are near-20 point favorites against the hapless, Adam Gase-led New York Jets. Le'Veon used to play for the Jets (remember?). Le'Veon and Gase didn't look each other very much. Andy Reid, the ultimate players coach, will certainly look to get his new running back toy in Bell some extra touches this week, and when we factor in CEH's struggles in the redzone and more specifically near the goal line, I believe the potential for junk time, a growing role in the offense, the revenge game narrative and everything in between are just too much ignore. I noticed this line's juice was creeping towards -150 on BetOnline last night. Hopefully you can still find close to even money. If you want to get a little spicy on Sunday, his 2 TD prop is around +800.
Melvin Gordon To Score a TD - FanDuel +106: See Le'Veon Bell above. The narrative street narrative (redundant, no?) is real in Week 8. Philip Lindsay is back in the fold in Week 8 after clearing concussion protocol, and while I expect both Lindsay and Gordon to split carries out of the backfield, I do also expect the Denver Broncos will continue to use Gordon in his usual goal-line and receiving dominant roles. The Chargers defense is solid, but it's more their pass rush and ability to get pressure on Drew Lock dropbacks in this contest. James Robinson had a huge day both rushing and receiving against the Bolts in Week 7, and with Gordon going up against his old team here he and his coaching staff should have the extra motivation to punch it over the goal line in favor of a Drew Lock quarterback sneak from the one. Gordon already has five touchdowns in five games this season (four rushing, one receiving) and he's seen at least 15 carries in all but one game. At plus money I'll take the walk down narrative street once more in Week 8.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Under 54.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -141 (buy down to 49.5): Marlon Humphrey has been one of the top slot cornerbacks now for the last two seasons, and I believe we can take advantage of this inflated line here after JuJu had somewhat of a "breakout" game in Week 7 in a shootout against the Tennessee Titans in which he saw a whopping 14 targets, posting a season best 9-85 line. Let's not forget, however, that JuJu prior to Week 7 had four straight games with 48 receiving yards or less. Add to that fact that Humphrey himself has allowed a more-than-stingy 285 yards and zero touchdowns on 47 targets (6.1 YPT) this year, as per Establish The Run's Evan Silva, and we have all the reason we need to fade JuJu in Week 8 in this divisional tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. JuJu has averaged just around 53 receiving yards in five career games against the Ravens, catching just 23-of-37 targets, and this isn't the same JuJu that we've seen in years past.
Brandon Aiyuk - Over 53.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -143 (buy up to 58.5): I talked with Sleepy J on our NFL Week 8 Money Picks/Player Props podcast on Friday night that while we shouldn't assume rationale coaching when it comes to betting, I do trust Kyle Shanahan to attack this Seattle Seahawks swiss cheese secondary where they are most vulnerable. Enter the talented rookie Brandon Aiyuk, who will face a 28th-ranked DVOA Seattle pass defense in Week 8. Opponents operate at the sixth-highest situation-neutral pass rate against the Seahawks as well, aided by their actually underrated ninth-ranked rush defense. We also have an injury-riddle RB carousel in San Francisco - and Seattle, for that matter - that is simply too tough to predict. Aiyuk all season has never dipped below 72% of snaps with or without Deebo Samuel, as per NumberFire, and he's coming off a career 6-7-115 game against New England. Give me all the Brandon Aiyuk in season-long leagues and DFS this week, too. Smash spot coming in Week 8.
David Njoku - Over 13.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -162 (buy up to 18.5): Njoku only ran 13 pass routes in Week 7, but he's projected for roughly 29.9 receiving yards in Week 8 according to Establish The Run, whom I trust the most out there with projections, meaning that this number just simply isn't correct. To add onto our narrative street Week 8 theme here as well is that the Browns have been reported to be taking offers/shopping around Njoku before the trade deadline. Njoku himself has wanted out of Cleveland for some time now, and what better way to boost the value of the former first-round draft pick than to give him a decent target share against an exploitable Raiders secondary. In the three games Njoku has received at least three targets he's had 50, 7 and 20 receiving yards this season. It's an extremely small sample size, I get it, but he still has talent and we're also taking advantage of Austin Hooper's continued absence in this offense while Njoku and Bryant operate in two-tight end sets.
Myles Gaskin - Over 24.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -106 (buy up to 25.5): This isn't a matchup I had circled earlier in the week when I began to do my player prop research, but upon looking at this Rams-Fins matchup I just can't seem to get off Myles Gaskin here in this spot. As per Sharp Football Analysis, Gaskin ranks fifth among all backs with 4.5 receptions per game, and while the Los Angeles Rams are eighth in rushing fantasy points allowed per game (10.2), they are a measly 22nd in receiving fantasy points allowed per game (11.5) to opposing backfields. Gaskin has actually cleared this 24.5 total in five of six games this year while seeing at least four targets in every single game. With Aaron Donald & Co wreaking havoc up front, I expect the Dolphins to scheme up some easy, quick throws for Tua out of the backfield to one of the better pass-catching running backs in the league. Gaskin has at least four catches in all but one game in 2020 and at least three catches - plus a catch of nine or more yards - in every game for Miami.
DeVante Parker - Under 58.5 receiving yards, FanDuel -110 (buy down to 53.5): Same game here, different matchup to exploit - or fade, for that matter. While I would never recommend blindly betting any trend or even blindly fading any specific shadow matchup between a defensive back and wide receiver, I will be looking to fade DeVante Parker lined up against the one and only Jalen Ramsey in this spot. I don't expect Tua to force the issue into the coverage of one of the league's top cornerbacks in his NFL starting debut in Week 8 either. Parker, who has been nagged by injuries this season, has topped 70 receiving yards just once this season and the Rams as a whole are second in the league in fantasy points allowed per target to opposing wideouts (1.57). Ramsey, on the other hand, has allowed just 16 completions on 30 targets for 160 yards and two TD's this year, severely limiting the likes of Terry McLaurin, Darius Slayton, Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson in the process. I'd buy this all the way down under 55 yards.
DK Metcalf - Over 73.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -112 (buy up to 78.5): I get it, you were burned by DK's dud in primetime in Week 7 while teammate Tyler Lockett seemingly exploded for 567 yards on 74 catches and 43 touchdowns. I exaggerate. Let's not forget, however, that Lockett himself has had actually more dud games than DK this year, and I'm more than happy going back to the well with the second-year stud out of Ole Miss in a bounce back spot with a projected fast pace and high total in this NFC West showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. In two games against his division rivals last year DK has 10 and 12 targets, with games of 6-70-0 and 6-81-1, and I expect much more efficiency with that target volume from a much-improve Metcalf in 2020. Patrick Peterson did a commendable job in forcing tough throws to Metcalf in Week 7, but with no Richard Sherman in sight for San Francisco in Week 8, I expect DK to eat once more and continue his WR1 season.
JK Dobbins - Over 15.5 receiving yards, DraftKings -112 (buy up to 20.5): We are buying rookies in fantasy this year, especially rookies coming off of bye weeks and getting extra opportunity to due to injuries on the depth chart. We possibly have the perfect storm for this scenario in Week 8 with no Mark Ingram in Baltimore, leaving the Ravens with an assumed two-man committee of just banger Gus Edwards and the talented rookie out of Ohio State in Dobbins. The Steelers allow almost nothing to opposing ground games, so I'm not trusting either back to be particularly effective on the ground here. However, it has been Dobbins who has in fact out-targeted Edwards 14 to 3 in the passing game this seasons and profiles as a dynamic playmaker who can give Lamar Jackson some easy throwing opportunities for quick chunk gains in the passing game. Dobbins has had three games of at least three targets this season, posting lines of 4-4-38, 3-3-21 and 4-2-1. The total is too low here.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Matthew Stafford to throw an INT (DraftKings, -152)