It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out anywhere from one, two or three (or more!) of the favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, COVID-19 news etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week below. Make sure to also tune into our weekly Betting Predators Money Picks / Player Props podcast, which drops on the weekend, where Sleepy J and I run through our player prop betting process, as well as favorite plays, for each game on the upcoming NFL Sunday main slate.
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, BetDSI, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Record: 61-51
- Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 5-2
Weekly Prop Article Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Total: 66-53 (55.9%)
Weekly Podcast Prop Record (Chris Only):
- Week 1: 0-1
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Total = 9-5 (64.3%)
Stefon Diggs - Over 75.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -134): This is one of my favorite props of the week and I have Stefon Diggs ranked as my overall WR3 accordingly in my Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings, behind only Julio Jones and Davante Adams. Diggs is in that type of elite territory in 2020, and he enters Week 9 with possibly his best matchup of the season against a pass-funnel Seattle Seahawks secondary missing their best defensive back in Shaquill Griffin. While Jamal Adams returns at safety, I still won't hesitate to fire on another Diggs prop here and bet on the talent in a plus matchup. Diggs has exceeded this total in 5 of 8 games this season, posting 86+ yards in all five of those games. The only games he didn't post at least 86 receiving yards was against Jalen Ramsey in Week 3, against the Chiefs' elite secondary in a messy rain game, and against the Jets in a game Allen was just terrible and still fed Diggs 11 targets. I'll throw that Jets game out as an outlier and buy back in confidently.
Allen Robinson - Over 72.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): You'll notice the trend here on our first three props, which all feature elite alpha WR1's on their respective offenses in plus matchups at home. Simply known as "A-Rob," Robinson has exceeded this total in four of his past six games, all games with Nick Foles under center by the way. Of the two games he didn't, one was against Jalen Ramsey, just like Diggs above, and the other was a game against Carolina's underrated secondary in which he still saw nine targets. A-Rob now in fact has at least 7 targets in five of six games with Foles and at least 9 targets in four of six games. The Titans, on the other hand, just allowed 9-7-78 yards to rookie Tee Higgins and have also given up WR1 receiving lines to the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster (14-9-85), Diontae Johnson (15-9-80), Will Fuller (11-6-123), Stefon Diggs (16-10-106), Justin Jefferson (9-7-175) and DJ Chark (4-4-84). Need I say more? Robinson will feast in this matchup with the Chicago Bears as near-touchdown road dogs.
Julio Jones - Over 87.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -137): JULIO JONES SMASH SPOT INCOMING. I made a "bold" move ranking Julio as my overall WR1 in fantasy this week, and while he now has a decent amount of ground to gain after Davante Adams' monstrous performance on Thursday Night Football, I believe there's a chance he can have a career day here in this spot. Atlanta is playing on a fast track back at home, and the Broncos' run defense has been solid enough to hold Todd Gurley in check, forcing the pass-happy Falcons to air it out even more than usual. Julio leads the league in receptions of 20 or more yards (12), and since returning to the field three weeks ago he has simply exploded for ridiculous receiving lines of 10-8-137, 9-8-97 and 10-7-137. As per Sharp Football Analysis, in three games that Calvin Ridley has missed, Julio has posted lines of 20-13-134 (!), 15-10-166 and 13-7-78. Simply put, he hasn't seen less than 13 targets in a game without Ridley. Fire him up in DFS, too, despite high ownership projections.
Jerry Jeudy - Over 47.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -124): Jerry Jeudy led the NFL in air yards in Week 8 and enters Week 9 with possibly his best matchup of the season against another pass-funnel secondary in the Atlanta Falcons. While I hyped up Julio above, I'm also bullish on the rookie Jeudy, who had a breakout game of sorts with a career-high 10 targets and 73 yards last week. I expect Tim Patrick to be back in this matchup, which actually could take extra attention away from Jeudy as he lines up both on the perimeter and in the slot. The Falcons rank a lowly 31st overall with 10.2 yards per target allowed and have also given up a league-leading 39 receptions of 20 yards or more. Jeudy has actually cleared this low total in five of seven games this season, and the only two times he went under were against Kansas City and New England. I have him ranked as a top 25 WR in fantasy and expect him to clear 50 with ease in this cake matchup with a projected negative Denver game script also helping.
Jake Luton - Under 6.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -134): As I mentioned on our NFL Week 9 Money Picks/Player Prop podcast, this is a straight up ugly "hold your nose and hope for the best prop." But I also believe that more often than not, this bad boy cashes. Hear me out. As per Establish The Run's Adam Levitan, Luton ranked as a 4th percentile (lol) athlete and ran a "blazing" 5.07 at his pro day. He also totaled -131 rushing yards in 29 college games. In his senior year at Oregon State, Luton tallied NEGATIVE -87 yards on 44 registered rushes. While I'm fully aware that college football counts sacks as rushing yards and the NFL doesn't, Luton didn't register a run of more than six yards in his final six collegiate games. Did I mention JJ Watt is coming to town, and his Texans are -7 favorites coming off a bye with a 1-6 chip on their shoulders? In 2018, as a junior, Luton also didn't have a single rush go for more than four yards. If Kirk Cousins (4, 5) and Big Ben (5, -3) couldn't get to 7, I'll bet Luton doesn't either.
JK Dobbins - Over 55.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): At first glance you might be scared off this prop because of the Colts' "elite" rushing defense. I use quotes around elite because Indy has benefitted more from weak opponents compared to simply just shutting down opposing run games. Kareem Hunt gained 72 yards against this Colts squad just a few weeks ago, while Frank Gore (15-57), Dalvin Cook (14-63), James Robinson (16-62). None of these guys smashed the 55.5 total we have for Dobbins here, but I'm bullish on the Ohio State product in Week 9 after he ripped through the Steelers vaunted run defense for a career-best 113 rushing yards on 15 carries, even in a negative game script. I believe this is by far the best team the Colts have faced all season, and Lamar's running threat will further open up holes for his fellow backs. Baltimore coaches openly spoke to the media after last week about wanting to feature Dobbins after the bye and as the season progresses. I'll bet on that to continue in Week 9 and beyond for Mr. JK.
Chase Edmonds - Over 66.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110): The moment that Chase Edmonds fantasy truthers and handcuff-hopeful managers have hoped for is finally here. Edmonds finally has the Arizona backfield all to himself again, at least for one week, as Kenyan Drake continues to rehab from an ankle injury, and in one game as full-time starter in 2019 he erupted for 27 carries, 126 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Edmonds has frankly looked like the better runner all season, and in Week 9 he gets a prime matchup against the Miami Dolphins' run-funnel defense that allowed 131 rushing yards to the Rams in Week 8, as well as 115 yards to the Jets, 131 yards to the 49ers, 112 yards to the Bills and 217 yards to the Patriots. The Cardinals are at home, off a bye, and currently six point favorites against a rookie making just his second career start. I expect Edmonds to dominate snaps, touches and targets in this offense, although I will bank first and foremost on the rushing with Arizona projected to play from ahead.
DeVante Parker - Under 59.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -118): We hit this prop last week when Parker posted a measly one catch for three yards while lined up against Jalen Ramsey and Tua threw for just 93 yards in his first NFL career start. While I expect the yardage to increase for both DeVante and Tua this week, I'm still fading Parker with another tough shadow coverage matchup with Patrick Peterson, who is fresh off a shut down of DK Metcalf before Arizona's Week 8 bye. Parker has cleared this total in just two of seven games this season and has failed to exceed 50 receiving yards now in three consecutive games. I expect the Dolphins to draw up some designed screens and quick, short outlet passes for Tua, a quarterback known for spreading the ball around in college and who will not force the issue by jamming the ball to Parker in Peterson's coverage. Preston Williams actually ran more routes than Parker in Week 8, to add insult to injury, and is getting healthier each week after his brutal 2019 knee injury a year ago.
J.D. McKissic - Over 3 receptions AND Over 18.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -130/FanDuel -106): Alright folks, here we go again. We hit our original double-dip McKissic prop back in Week 5 with the over on his receptions and his receiving yards when they were set at 2.5 and 15.5, respectively. While the numbers became a bit inflated as of late, we can take advantage of twofold recency bias here. Washington beat up on Dallas in Week 7, then went on bye in Week 8. In that Week 7 whitewash of the Cowboys, they simply did not need to involve the running backs in the receiving game. Now let's go just one week before that game, when Washington lost a 20-19 nail-biter to the Giants in a game where McKissic posted a 6-6-43 receiving line in a mostly neutral game script. The numbers have come back down to earth, and the market simply isn't account for the fact that before Week 7 that McKissic has posted three straight games with at least six targets, six catches and 40 receiving yards. It's time to double dip the J.D. McKissic prop chip again.
Antonio Gibson - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 17.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -113/DraftKings +100): Same Washington Football team, different running back. The McKissic handicap above applies perfectly here as well for Gibson, who I expect to be even more involved in the game plan following a bye week and one game removed from a career-high 128 rushing yards. The Giants have a respectable run defense, and I suspect they will pose a similar challenge as they did in Week 6 here, and with a Washington -2.5 spread I expect more neutral game-script situational football for Gibson to allow him to get enough targets to clear this low total. Catching passes from the Checkdown King Mr. Kyle Allen himself only helps matters here. Prior to Week 7, just like McKissic, Gibson had posted three straight games with at least five targets, four catches and 24 receiving yards. I have Gibson locked inside my top 15 overall RB's in fantasy this week as well, and I wouldn't hate a play on over his total rushing + receiving yards either.
Ben Roethlisberger - Under 24.5 completions AND Under 264.5 passing yards (DraftKings +100/-118): Three double dips in the same week? Say it ain't so, but hell yes, I've gotta throw this one in here too, as I simply do not expect the Steelers to need to throw whatsoever in the second half of this potential blowout spot. The Steelers enter Jerry World in Week 9 as massive -15 point road favorites. Say what you want about a "flat spot" for Pittsburgh and taking the value with the home dogs here, but either way I expect the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and improve to 8-0 on the season. Since Dak Prescott went down, we haven't seen an opposing quarterback top 15 completions or 194 passing yards in a single outing, as Carson Wentz (15-for-27, 123), Kyle Allen (15-for-25, 194), Kyler Murray (9-for-24, 188) all scored plenty of touchdowns but simply didn't need to throw much late. Even in Dak's final two games, Daniel Jones (20-for-33, 222) and Baker Mayfield (19-for-30, 165) failed to exceed these totals. I love this double dip.
James Conner - Over 79.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -130): The Big Ben double dip I'll correlate to James Conner, who I expect to punish the Cowboys on the ground in Week 9 and do most of the (early) heavy lifting in this matchup. Conner has exceeded this total in four of six games he's played fully healthy this season, and the only two times he didn't were against two of the toughest run defenses in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens and the Philadelphia Eagles. I mentioned Gibson having a career day two weeks ago against this pathetic excuse of a Dallas Cowboys defense, and last week they also allowed another career-high in rushing (70 yards) to the diminutive pass-catching back Boston Scott. Kenyan Drake looked like a world-beater against him the week before those two games as well, running rampant for 164 yards on 20 carries. Don't be afraid to stack Conner and the Steelers D/ST in DFS, either, while fading the passing game weapons in a game where the Steelers will not need to keep their foot on the gas pedal for too long.
Diontae Johnson - Over 39.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -141): This prop might seem like a direct contradiction to my Big Ben "under-dip" above, as well as with Conner's over, but the fact is here that we're getting the Steelers WR1 in a line that is simply incorrect. As of Saturday, DraftKings Sportsbook has both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool above 50 yards for their receiving props while Diontae's sits at a lowly 39.5. In the three full games he has played this season, Diontae has been FED targets to the tune of 10, 13 and 15. I'll pounce on the softest number of the Steelers WR trio for the guy getting the most targets and running the most diverse assortment of routes. In those three healthy games I just mentioned, Diontae put up 10-6-57, 13-8-92 and 15-9-80. We might to cash this one in the first half before the Steelers stop throwing, but it's low enough for me to go back to the well on Diontae, as we've cashed a number of over tickets on him this season and he continues to be both underrated and underpriced.
*Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Chase Edmonds to score a TD (FanDuel -120)