Get $30 OFF with code BP30 - Offer valid until Monday, September 18th!
By Chris Dell
PLEASE NOTE: These player prop lines move very fast throughout the week. In order to get notifications as soon as Chris or someone from the Betting Predators team places a bet, be sure to join our subscriber-only discord
Staff Note: The player prop lines and bets listed below were available at the time they were given out to our NFL In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after Chris places one of his prop bets and get the best line available, we highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to Chris' best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our subscriber-only Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings and much more. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of Chris' best bet player props also strongly correlate with his weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Message Chris any time on Twitter @MaddJournalist
Player Prop Bets I Made For Week 1
*win/loss units is based on betting to win 1 unit on each favored prop and risking 1 on each underdog prop
Mike Gesicki UNDER 20.5 Receiving Yards @ FoxBet -120
Mike Gesicki currently has ZERO role in Mike McDaniel's new pass-first offensive scheme. Despite being a pass-catching tight end by trade, and playing that role in Week's 1 top-rated team in terms of pass rate over expectation (PROE), Gesicki was targeted just once, and he had one catch for one yard. Gesicki played also just 25 out of the possible 60 offensive snaps for the Dolphins, with a lowly 15 routes run. Durham Smythe, the team's primary run-blocking tight end, not only received a higher snap count (38), but also was targeted two times and had one catch for 14 yards on 13 routes run. We now have tight-end committee on our hands, and beyond that Gesicki is seemingly tied for 8th on the target pecking order. I had big bets on Gesicki UNDER 600 yards for one of our premium package's season-long bets, and I was also on him under both 30.5 receiving yards AND 3.5 receptions in Week 1. I'm tempted to double-dip again in Week 2, although for now I'll stick to the yardage in this short-area pass-happy offense in MIA.
DeVante Parker UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards @ Barstool -117
Despite leading the team in both snaps (63) and routes run (33), Parker had a miserable performance in terms of usage, even in a revenge game against a Dolphins secondary who ranked just 22nd overall by Pro Football Focus coming into the 2022 season. He caught only one ball for nine yards with just two targets despite New England trailing by multiple touchdowns in Week 1 against Miami. He now travels to Pittsburgh, who's secondary is ranked 3rd by PFF, and he's still tied for seventh in target share on a run-first team. Parker's competition for targets are all guys who've had previous on-field experience with second-year QB Mac Jones. In only his second week with Jones, I don't expect much to change here. This is another prop we hit in Week 1, and given the miniscule target share, I'm more than happy going back to it.
Rashaad Penny UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards @ FoxBet -125
Death, taxes, and San Francisco 49ers run defense stifling opposing backfields. These are the things we know, as we cashed out 2-unit under play on David Montgomery in a similar situation in Week 1. In Week 2, however, Penny is no longer in the same situation he was in last week though either. Rookie Kenneth Walker is back in town, returning from a hernia injury, and he's in line to at the very least eat into Penny's season-opening workload. What makes matters worse for Penny is that his team is touchdown-plus dogs once again, this time to a more-than-motivated San Francisco team coming off an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Fields. Penny's matchup simply can't get any worse here, neither can his backfield potential split, nor his potential game script given the hefty spread. These signals all scream under to me in this spot, which quite frankly makes this my absolute favorite prop bet in all of Week 2.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 54.5 Rushing Yards @ Barstool -115
Lamar Jackson is the most dangerous running quarterback in the league, but hear me out: Jackson, who doesn't have an agent, chose to represent himself in negotiating a new contract this offseason. The Ravens and Jackson can't come to an agreement, and the rest is seemingly history. The stats say Jackson had six rushing attempts for 17 yards, so some positive regression is due for him here in the rushing department in Week 2 right? Wrong. In reality, Jackson had only 4 rushing attempts, as 2 from the box score were actually kneel downs at the end of the game. Jackson ran 1 time in the 1st quarter, then 3 times in the 3rd quarter. Does the lack of a contract extension motivate Jackson to run less? We will keep betting this under until Jackson goes over, or the market adjust properly. It's more than possible that he's protecting himself (and his best asset) until a long-term deal in Baltimore is done. I don't blame him, either.
Najee Harris UNDER 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @ PointsBet -143
Najee Harris has admittedly been dealing with a Lisfranc sprain in his foot since the Steelers first day of training camp. Harris still suited up for the Steelers final preseason game, and while all Lisfranc injuries are different, remember that Travis Etienne missed the entire 2021 season due to his Lisfranc injury. Najee updated us by recently by saying it would only take 4-6 weeks to recover, but he's STILL trying to play through this injury nonetheless. When kickoff for week one finally arrived, Harris was 8 weeks and 4 day into his said recovery. The end result? Najee didn't even finish his Week 1 game versus Cincinnati on Sunday, finishing with 10 rushing attempts for 23 yards and two receptions for three yards despite being in a positive game script. Reports are circulating that Najee's work load will decrease in an attempt to keep the second-year back fresh and injury-free moving forward, and that's currently being reflected in the anytime TD prop market, as undrafted rookie and Steelers second-string RB Jaylen Warren is listed as one of the top candidates to score a touchdown in Week 2's home contest against the New England Patriots.
Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 2.5 Receptions @ FanDuel -166
With a team-leading 11 targets in week one, can Peoples-Jones now faces awful Jets secondary ranking 23rd in coverage per Pro Football Focus. The former Michigan standout fits the profile of a breakout wide receiver talent in 2022, too. Peoples-Jones is in his second-year and has the athletic prospect resume to be a true breakout for Cleveland this season, especially when Deshaun Watson re-enters fold. For now, however, he seems entrenched as the Browns' top passing weapon with Jacoby Brissett after the two had a ton of time to develop chemistry together during the offseason. Any time we have a chance to bet the OVER on just 2.5 receptons, for someone who legitimately has the chance to be his team's number-one passing option, that's certainly a wager that I'm willing to eat the high vig and current Week 2 price tag on.
Tyreek Hill OVER 5.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -115
"The Cheetah," aka "Ty-Freak," emerged from Week 1 as one of the NFL's top, undisputed alpha wide receivers. Hill commanded an elite 39% targets per route run (TPRR) mark and was the only receiver in the NFL with a TPRR above 37% AND 10+ targets (the next two highest were Davante Adams' 37% TPRR + 17 targets and Amon-Ra St. Brown's 33% TPRR and 12 targets). The Dolphins were also #1 in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in Week 1 despite leading by multiple scores throughout their game against the New England Patriots. In Week 2, they now hit the road as underdogs against a Ravens team which allowed Joe Flacco to drop back and sling it 59 times (!) in Week 1. I'm expecting elevated play volume AND pass volume yet again, and Hill should be the beneficiary. I have him projected for 7+ catches in Week 2.
H2H Matchup: Joe Mixon > Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards @ DK -250
Risking 1.25 units to win one half of a unit is something I normally don't do, but in this case I'm willing and able to since everything points to a very big day for Joe Mixon, and quite frankly the exact opposite for Zeke in this spot against a more-than-solid Cincinnati Bengals run defense. After watching Leonard Fournette carve the Cowboys' defense to pieces, it's tough not to see Mixon doing the same in Week 2. The Bengals, now seven-point road favorites, have the motivational edge here after a Week 1 home loss to a divisional rival. Mixon should be running in a positive game script early and often in this spot, while Elliott on the other hand could receiverest every other drive with Tony Pollard eating into his rushing attempts. If the Cowboys get down big again against the Bengals, however, Pollard becomes an even stronger candidate to become the Cowboys' passing down back as Dallas could abandon the run all together. I expect Cincinnati to stack the box early and often here, giving Mixon the clear hand in overall defensive matchup, workload/projected carry volume, game script, and more. My numbers make this closer to -400, with Mixon being projected for 75 yards compared to just 45 for Zeke. Instead of betting the over or under on either player I'll stick to the head-to-head (H2H) matchup prop on DraftKings.
H2H Matchup: Saquon Barkley > Christian McCaffrey Rushing + Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -110
Both of thee guys can indeed be valuable in both positive and negative game scripts, but it was Barkley who CLEARLY had the better week one in terms of usage. Barkley looks more like the central focus of Brian Daboll's new New York Giants offense, while McCaffrey was more of an afterthought in the passing game with Baker Mayfield looking to spread the ball around not check down to his running backs. Barkley was the main focus for New York in Week 1 no matter what the game script was, totaling 25 potential touches with 18 carries and 7 targets. compared to just 15 potential touches for CMC. Barkley also out-snapped CMC as a whole, with 50 snaps on 60 offensive possessions while CMC saw 43 snaps on 53 offensive possessions. We're not necessarily betting against McCaffrey here, who surely could see some positive regression in his target volume in Week 2, but what we are doing is betting on Barkley to continue his comeback player of the year campaign. Barkley should also see ample running room against a Carolina Panthers defense which allowed Nick Chubb to run rampant for 140+ yards on the ground last week.
H2H Matchup: Darren Waller > Zach Ertz Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -165
The main difference here is clear: one tight-end (Waller) seemingly gets yards-after-the-catch (YAC) at will, while the other (Ertz) has a dedicated Twitter account which tracks his INABILITY to gain YAC. Waller should see ample opportunity in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field against a Cardinals defense that allowed 8 receptions for 121 yards and one touchdown to Travis Kelce. This game has the highest over/under of the week, and we're simply betting on talent and better offensive efficiency here with Waller in this H2H bet. Ertz could certainly out-target and have more receptions, but the explosive play rate and athletic advantage for Waller in this matchup is too tough to ignore. I have him ranked #2 overall in my tight end fantasy football rankings for Week 2, ahead of both Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts for Sunday.
H2H Matchups @ DraftKings: Drake London > Allen Robinson -
Receiving Yards -105
Drake London came into Week 1 with a hurt knee and lining up against a solid Saints secondary anchored by stud DB Marshon Lattimore. Even in a game where Atlants didn't need to throw in catch-up mode, London still produced 5 catches for 74 yards on 7 targets. London also led all Falcons wide receivers with 54 snaps out of a possible 75, and now he possibly faces a Jalen Ramsey-led secondary in Week 2 which received one of the worst defensive grades from PFF to start the year.. The Falcons are now a 10-point dog in this road matchup, which should provide us with a positive game script for London to see close to double-digit targets or more. Robinson, on the other hand, finished Week 1 with one reception for 12 yards despite the Rams losing by 20+ points and trailing A TON.. All this week Sean McVay has talked up the running game and a possible Cam Akers revival. With Rams as heavy home favorites here, and with both Cooper Kupp AND Tyler Higbee commanding targets at a high rate in Week 1, it's tough to see Robinson having enough opportunity to outpace what could just be the NFL's top rookie talent in London.