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By Chris Dell
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Staff Note: The player prop lines and bets listed below were available at the time they were given out to our NFL In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after Chris places one of his prop bets and get the best line available, we highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to Chris' best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our subscriber-only Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings and much more. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of Chris' best bet player props also strongly correlate with his weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Message Chris any time on Twitter @MaddJournalist
Player Prop Bets I Made For Week 5
*win/loss units is based on betting to win 1 unit on each favored prop and risking 1 on each underdog prop
George Pickens OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (1 Unit, Buy Price 38.5)
Last week George Pickens had a statement game. Catching six balls on eight targets for 102 yards in his fourth game as a pro. In his first three games he had a longest catch of 23, 36, and 27. Kenny Pickett will start this week for Pittsburgh and Pickens was his favorite target during the preseason. Pickett took over for Mitch Trubisky in the second half. Pickens had four receptions on 4 targets for 71 yards. Getting 37.5 yards in a contest where the Steelers will be in a positive game script for Pickens could have the rookie wide receiver hit the over by halftime. After this week you will never see Pickens with this low a receiving prop again. He was 3rd in the NFL in air yards in Week 4 and is a talented rookie on the rise for Pittsburgh.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (1 Unit, Buy Price 68.5)
- Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 28.5 Pass Attempts @PointsBet -115 (Half Unit)
- Baker Mayfield UNDER 194.5 Passing Yards @BetMGM -115 (1 Unit, Buy Price 189.5)
- Christian McCaffrey UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards @PointsBet -139 (1 Unit, Buy Price 50.5)
We can all see the struggles that Baker Mayfield is having this season. Whether it's his skill level or the fact he didn’t have a full training camp with his new team. One thing for sure, we need to take advantage of a good prop number against the struggling quarterback while we can. Mayfield has failed to hit this prop over twice this year and one of the two times he has hit is the total was 197. Baker is averaging 186.8 yards passing per game which is 7.7 under the total for this week. Christian McCaffrey has one of the most hot and cold stat lines this season. Hitting triple digits twice this season at 108 and 102 rushing yards, McCaffrey also hit lows of 27 and 33 rushing yards. San Francisco has allowed starting running backs this season a season low of 26, 15, 58, and 13 yards rushing. McCaffrey is on another level then most of those backs, but so is this San Francisco defense. Using our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet Carolina has the ninth worst offensive line versus defensive line matchup this week when it comes to both passing and rushing advantage. Establish The Run ranks the 49ers defensive line against the Panthers offensive line as the second biggest lopsided matchup this week. The 49ers enter week five with the second most sacks in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranks San Francisco as the number one coverage team this week.
- Damien Harris OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards @BetMGM -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 58.5)
- Damien Harris OVER 13.5 Rushing Attempts @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
- Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 11.5 Rushing Attempts @BetMGM -115 (Half Unit)
Rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe is starting this week for the Patriots. In the history of Bill Belichick coaching the Patriots, one thing I know for sure is he hates rookies with a passion. This will be the Harris and Stevenson show this Sunday. Using our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet we have the Patriots with the highest rushing advantage this week at +17. Establish The Run ranks the Patriots offensive line fourth in an advantage against the Lions front seven defense. Both running backs are matchup proof, maybe Stevenson more than Harris but even if the Patriots find themselves trailing, I can see New England trying to score by running more than passing.
- Matthew Stafford UNDER 258.5 Passing Yards @BetMGM -125 (1 Unit, Buy Price 249.5)
- Allen Robinson UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
- Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards @ PointsBet -125 (Half Unit)
- DK Metcalf OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 66.5)
- Tyler Lockett OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards @Barstool -117. (Half Unit, Buy Price 68.5)
Geno Smith has only eyes for these two talented wide receivers. Lockett has hit the over on this prop number three times so far this season and is averaging 75.5 receiving yards a game. Metcalf has his the over on this number only twice but is averaging 71 yards receiving a game. These two wide receivers were part of the DraftKing's Millionaire lineups last week and very well could do it again. Last week the Saints secondary gave up 147 yards to Justin Jefferson and 72 yards to Adam Thielen. Both these Seahawks wide receivers have the ability to eat all game and as the only two dependable pass catchers, I expected them both to pass the mark.
- Najee Harris UNDER 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @PointsBet -120 (Half Unit)
- Najee Harris UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards @PointsBet -115 (Half Unit)
We split last week on this same Najee Harris double prop bet but we definitely feel better to hit these numbers this week. Harris has hit the over to this rushing line two times out of four games played, although one of those two over the rushing total was 56 total rushing yards. Najee has only gone over the rushing/receiving yards total once this season. Pittsburgh is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to offensive line versus defensive line. Buffalo ranks second in defensive line play according to Establish the Run compared to the Steelers 30th. Playing in what is the biggest spread of the year 14 points. Najee will be running in a negative game script for certain.
- Aaron Jones OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards @BetMGM -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 58.5)
- Aaron Jones OVER 11.5 Rushing Attempts @FanDuel -130 (Half Unit)
- AJ Dillon OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards @BetMGN -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 56.5)
- A.J. Dillon OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts @BetMGM -125 (Half Unit)
With a positive rushing advantage this week according to our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet, Green Bay should have both their running backs in a positive game script all game. The Packers are an eight point favorite and Aaron Jones who twice this season has rushed for over 100 yards gets a soft and banged up Giants defense that has allowed both running backs rushing props number to five different running backs in four games, while also allowing Justin Fields to rush for 52 yards. All five of these running backs also had over 12.5 rushing attempts.
- Chris Olave Longest Reception OVER 22.5 Yards @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit)
- Chris Olave OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards @BetMGM -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 66.5)
- Juwan Johnson OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards @BetMGM -110 (Half Unit)
- Adam Trautman OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards @BetMGM -110 (Half Unit)
- Drake London OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards @FanDuel -114 (Half Unit)
- Chris Godwin OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards @FOXBet -120 (Half Unit, Buy Price 58.5)
- Nick Chubb Longest Rush OVER 18.5 Yards @DraftKings -125 (Half Unit)
- Mike Williams OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards @PointsBet -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 68.5)
- Devin Singletary UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 49.5)
- Kenny Pickett To Throw an Interception @Bet365 -170 (Half Unit)
- Zach Ertz OVER 4.5 Receptions @Barstool, UniBet, Sugarhouse, Twinspires -141 (Half Unit)
- Dallas Goedert OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 45.5)
Antonio Gibson UNDER 43.5 Rushing Yards @FOXBet -120 (Half Unit)
Kirk Cousins UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts @PointsBet +100 (Half Unit)
Chase Edmonds UNDER 30.5 Rushing Yards @FOXBet -120 (Half Unit, Buy Price 27.5)
Bonus derivative/novelty props I also like below:
You can find these every week on our FREE Discord betting channel here -
- Mike Williams Longest Reception OVER 24.5 Yards
- Dallas Goedert Longest Reception OVER 18.5 Yards
- Head to Head @ DraftKings - Breece Hall +2.5 rushing + receiving yards > Raheem Mostert
- Head to Head @ DraftKings - Ja'Marr Chase -19.5 rushing + receiving yards > JK Dobbins
- Head to Head @ DraftKings - Baker Mayfield INT's > Jimmy Garoppolo (ties are refunded)