It's that time!! Each week on the Betting Predators NFL Preview podcast I will give out 2-3 of my favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week.
Editor's note: I made the following player prop bets already this week using betonline.ag's player prop builder tool. Unfortunately, with this offshore book, they are known to not offer unders on various players and props. This being the case, you'll notice a lot of my props below are on overs. These over props, however, strongly correlate with my Week 6 fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Record: 38-22
- Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 3-1
- Total Record: 41-23 (64.1%)
Weekly Prop Article Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Total: 41-23 (64.1%)
Weekly Podcast Prop Record (Chris Only):
- Week 1: 0-1
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Total = 7-3 (70%)
- (NEW) Raheem Mostert - Over 16.5 receiving yards (buy up to 19.5): Mostert's lead dog duties in the San Francisco backfield were back to normal in Week 5 despite it being his first game back from injury and despite being one week removed from Jerick McKinnon dominating carries in Week 4. Mostert quietly gained nearly 10 yards per carry in the 49er's blowout loss to Miami, and he also saw three targets, catching all of them for 29 receiving yards. Mostert now has 95, 15 and 29 receiving yards in his three games this season with multiple targets in every contest. The Rams are strong on the front four but can be beat in the middle of the field if Kyle Shanahan can get Mostert out in space in the screen game or with a wheel route down the sideline. I'll gladly bet on Mostert's explosiveness here just one week removed from totaling 119 yards on 14 touches.
- (NEW) Christian Kirk - Over 45.5 receiving yards (buy up to 47.5): Christian Kirk gets a dream matchup in Week 6 on primetime against arguably the NFL's worst defense/secondary in the Dallas Cowboys. The third-year Texas A&M product has seen his highest target shares of the season over his last two games and in Week 5 posted season-highs in catches (5), yards (78) and targets (7). Kirk also owns an impressive 25.2% air yards share in the up-tempo Arizona Cardinals offense, and he will benefit from extra attention to DeAndre Hopkins week in and week out. Kirk now has at least 55 yards or a touchdown in three straight games and is trending up in usage with a plus matchup. Kirk, like Michael Gallup mentioned below, just needs one completion downfield to pay off this prop in a game that boasts one of the highest over/under totals on the entire Week 6 slate.
- (NEW) CeeDee Lamb - Over 4.5 receptions (buy up to 5): Lamb is making his case for 2020's top rookie wideout through the first month of the season, as he's caught 5+ balls in all five games this year and ranks top 20 out of 105 qualified wideouts in yards per route run (2.26), as per Establish The Run's Evan Silva. Arizona has been vulnerable to talented slot receivers so far this year, as evident by Jamison Crowder's 8-116-1 line in Week 5. Lamb, like Gallup below, also tied for a team-high three targets with Andy Dalton under center, and he will provide a steady safety blanked underneath for a new starting quarterback dealing with a banged up offensive line at home. While the Cowboys will try to lean on Ezekiel Elliott as much as possible without Dak Prescott, their (Iack of) defense will still put them in position to need to throw more often than not. Lamb could actually benefit from the change at quarterback, especially as defenses continue to key in on #1 WR Amari Cooper.
- (NEW) Michael Gallup - Over 41.5 receiving yards (buy up to 42.5): Gallup's season-long fantasy production has been underwhelming so far in 2020, but he's still garnering a team-high 27% air yards share and he did lead the Cowboys in receiving once Andy Dalton took over for Dak in Week 5. Gallup had three grabs for 65 yards in limited action in that game, including two tightrope-esque receptions down the right sideline in crunch time. He is likely to face Dre Kirkpatrick on the outside on Monday Night Football in Week 6, and Kirkpatrick is graded as PFF's third-worst defensive back this season. Add a high-tempo pace and high O/U to the mix, and Gallup is more likely to boom than bust in this matchup against an exploitable Cardinals secondary. Per Sharp Football Analysis, Dallas ran the more 12 personnel (two-tight end sets) with Dalton (21.7%) than it had with Dak Prescott (12.4%), which was probably a coaching adjustment to give extra protection for their quarterback. That extra time will give Dalton more confidence to go deep to Gallup, who can clear this total on one play.
- (NEW) Laviska Shenault - Over 3.5 receptions AND Over 48.5 receiving yards (buy up to 4 and 51.5: Shenault has had 5-7-7 catches on 6-6-8 targets over the last three weeks and with DJ Chark (ankle) active I believe this only benefits the talented rookie out of Colorado. Shenault also has posted 86 and 79 receiving yards, respectively, in his past two games and is essentially just emerging from his "COVID-19 Preseason" now that he's five games into the 2020 season. Chark's mere presence on the field will force the Detroit Lions to focus less on Shenault and more towards the Jaguars' #1 wide receiver on the depth chart in Chark, who didn't look himself in Week 5's loss to Houston with only 3 catches for 16 yards on four targets. The market hasn't caught up with Shenault just yet, who was drafted as more of a gadget player but has clearly displayed his potential elite receiver skills just a month into the season. I'd play his catches up to 4 and his yards to 50.
- Antonio Gibson - Over 22.5 receiving yards (buy up to 23.5): The "Checkdown King" is back! Kyle Allen is back under center for the Washington Football Team in Week 6, and with that we go right back to the well with Antonio Gibson in the receiving game here. In last week's player prop column - and on a few podcasts, as well - I mentioned how Allen single-handedly enabled Christian McCaffrey to post a record-setting fantasy football season in 2019 because of the immense amount of targets and passing game volume thrown his way. Enter Gibson: even though the converted wide receiver out of Memphis has been "eased into the offense" through five weeks, he still is leading all Washington RB's in snaps and overall touches, and he's posted back-to-back receiving lines of 4-82 (five targets) in Week 4 and 5-24 (five targets) in Week 5. Alex Smith didn't check down as often to Gibson as Allen did before leaving in the first half with an injury, but if we get at least one full half of Allen here, we'll be in a good spot to clear this low prop total. Gibson has tallied at least once catch of 12+ yards in each of his last three games and gets his best matchup of the young season against a New York Giants defense that will James Bradberry shadowing Terry McLaurin on the outside and not much else. Unfortunately we can't double dip with the 2.5 receptions line last week, as that has been juiced up to 3.5, but the yardage is still ripe for the taking in a potential back-and-forth matchup between two teams desperate for a win. Look for Gibson to be involved early and often here.
- J.D. McKissic - Over 23.5 receiving yards (buy up to 24.5): Another Washington running back to catch passes from the checkdown king himself? Sign me up. McKissic, a receiving back by trade, has tallied receiving lines of 3-37, 7-40 and 6-46 in his last three games and has had a whopping 16 targets (!) over the past two weeks, averaging 6.5 catches and 43 receiving yards in that span. Last week the receiving prop here was set at 15.5, and it's still too low at 23.5 - McKissic and Gibson will benefit immensely in this spot with James Bradberry shadowing No. 1 wideout Terry McLaurin on the outside, as mentioned above, and it won't take long for the targets to mount up in what could be a fairly competitive contest. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gibson and McKissic combine for 10+ catches and 10+ targets in this game, and we might need only half of that usage to clear these. The market simply hasn't caught up - or become aware, yet -of Allen's RB checkdown tendencies.
- Devonta Freeman - Over 19.5 receiving yards (buy up 22.5): Can we officially call this the triple RB receiving dip? Another running back in this Washington-New York game, and another low receiving line total to exploit. Just like McKissic and Gibson above, we also won this prop in Week 5 with relative ease, and the fact remains that Freeman's role has grown by large amounts in each of the last two week's since the Giants signed him as a free agent. I mentioned on our Betting Predators Week 6 Money Picks/Player Props podcast this with week with Sleepy J that Freeman's natural skill as a pass catching back was always evident during his time with the Atlanta Falcons. His receiving ability still remains his best attribute in 2020, and with a matchup against a tough Washington Football Team front four looming, Daniel Jones will look to check down more often than usual while avoiding pressure from Chase Young and company. Freeman's receiving lines the last two weeks are 2-27 (three targets) and 4-35 (four targets), and his total touch count has also risen from 5-15-19 since joining the Giants three weeks ago. All we need is one solid swing pass or wheel route to clear this low total here, and with New York sporting the worst tackle duo in the NFL, according to Brandon Thorne of Establish The Run, the Giants will be facing immense pressure throughout this divisional showdown. Jones, in turn, will look to Freeman as a safety blanket in the flats and also in the screen game. Fire up Freeman with confidence as a top 20 running back in fantasy this week as well.
- Darius Slayton - Over 58.5 receiving yards (buy up to 59.5): We look to improve to 4-0 on Darius Slayton props this season in the same game as mentioned above, and this will be the third time we play his over. Injuries to Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard have vaulted Slayton to the Giants' undisputed #1 wide receiver, and the second-year product from Auburn has not disappointed with his opportunities. As per Sharp Football Analysis, with Shepard sidelined, Slayton leads the Giants in targets (25), receptions (14), yards (230) and air yards (328). The next closes pass catcher in this New York offense has only 93 air yards (!), with no tough shadow coverage matchup in sight in Week 6, I expect Slayton to get loose for at least one or two deep plays in this game. Slayton went off for 8-129 on 11 targets in Week 5 and also had 6-102-2 on nine targets against an above-average Pittsburgh Steelers defense in Week 1. While Washington hasn't allowed a wide receiver to go for 100+ yards this season, that's mostly due to negative game scripts and facing run-heavy teams like the Rams, Ravens and Browns from Weeks 3-5. Even in a 30-10 defeat to the Rams in Week 5 we saw Gerald Everett (4-90), Robert Woods (4-71) and Cooper Kupp (5-66) all go off and all have at least one catch of 40+ yards. I have Slayton ranked accordingly as a top 20 wide receiver in my Betting Predators Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings, and I believe he has top 10 upside.
- Myles Gaskin - Over 13.5 carries (buy up to 14): Talk about an emerging bell-cow back. Gaskin, a seventh-round draft pick out of Washington in 2019, has exploded onto the scene in 2020 and has all but pushed aside free-agent darlings Jordan Howard (healthy scratch in Week 5) and Matt Breida (just five carries per game). Gaskin has done both on the ground and through the air this season, but what stands out the most is his career-high 22 carries in Miami's Week 3 blowout win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gaskin followed that up in Week 5 with 16 carries in the Dolphins' 43-17 rout of the San Francisco 49ers. When the Dolphins are comfortably ahead, they are feeding Gaskin the rock, and I expect nothing less in Week 6 in a game in which they are favored by more than a touchdown to the lowly New York Jets. Breida did get some extended run in Week 5's blowout win as well, sure, with nine carries for 28 yards, but that was also against his old team and a motivational / revenge spot. We are betting on the Dolphins to control this game end to end and maintain a positive game script throughout. While I'm fully aware we can't 100% trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to give us that game script in every single week, this one is an exception. The Jets have seemingly quit on their coach - and their franchise for that matter - and Gaskin will most likely serve as a clock-killer as this game progresses. If so, he will see upwards of 15+ carries in this game and we clear this one early.
- Jamison Crowder - Over 68.5 receiving yards (buy up to 69): There's only a few things that we can in fact trust in life: Death, Taxes and Adam Gase slot receivers. Crowder has posted a ridiculous 100+ yards in all three of his games this season with Jets playing from behind early and often in 2020. He's also had no less than 10 targets in any game this year, despite playing with two of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold. With Gase still calling plays for at least one more week, I expect him to dial up what he does best - quick and easy short-to-intermediate routes for the slot king Jamison Crowder. Crowder has torched opposing secondaries for 8-116-1, 7-104 and 7-115-1 over his three games, amassing 33 targets in that span and averaging a surprisingly potent 15.2 yards per catch. Crowder, contrary to your typical slot receiver, has a catch of at least 35 yards in every one of his games as well. He tallied a 52-yard reception in Week 5 and had a 69-yard catch in Week 1, showing solid burst with his yards after the catch. Because he is a slot receiver, however, and the fact that he plays for Gase and the Jets, with Flacco throwing him the ball no less, we get the perfect blend of market under-reaction to his absolute dominance this season. Crowder also avoids direct shadow matchups with Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, who will be lining up with outside receivers Breshad Perriman and Jeff Smith in this AFC East divisional showdown.
- Trey Burton - Over 2.5 receptions (buy up to 3): While I typically wouldn't bet the overs on any three-man NFL positional committee members, we are getting just two tight ends in Week 6 with the early week news of Mo Alie Cox being ruled out. Burton was a priority signing of the Colts in the offseason and has burst onto the scene as the team's #1 tight end since returning from IR just two weeks ago. Burton has led the Colts tight end in routes run, snaps and targets over that short span, and he posted a 5-33 (six targets) receiving line in a loss to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday. While the adot (average depth of target) will remain insanely low for Burton catching passes from Phillip Rivers' noodle arm, he'll be the tight end of choice here and at worst cede a few snaps here and there to the veteran Jack Doyle. Burton's Week 6 opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, have allowed tight end performances of 5-73 to Hunter Henry, 7-70 to Zach Ert and 6-56 to Mark Andrews this season and will give Rivers one his softest secondaries to throw against so far in 2020. Burton isn't sexy by any means as a player prop bet, but his total is low enough for us to rely on usage and matchup to exploit. I personally wouldn't play this over 3, but the juice is worth it if you can get either 2.5 or 3 flat imo.
- Damien Harris - Over 56.5 rushing yards (buy up to 58.5): I get it, it might not be wise to trust a Bill Belichick running back, but hear me out: Harris put up an impressive 17-100 rushing line in his first ever extended NFL action in primetime against the Kansas City Chiefs, including an even more impressive 41-yard run. Even without the 41-yard scamper, and in a negative game script on top of that, Harris had a solid 16 carries for 59 yards. Sony Michel remains on IR, and the Patriots enter Week 6 with the most lopsided offensive line matchup on the NFL slate. The Broncos' defensive line has been decimated with injuries this season and without Bradley Chubb they are not a unit to fear. The Patriots have had time to prepare, and as near 10-point home favorites in this game, I believe they build an early lead and grind clock in the second half, leaning hard on the second-year back out of Alabama in the process. Harris will get another shot to show he belongs as the lead dog in this backfield, and I believe he's a sneaky, low-owned play in DFS this weekend to possibly stack with the Patriots D/ST facing an overrated Drew Lock with no Melvin Gordon.
- Mark Andrews - Over 50.5 receiving yards (buy up to 52.5): Tight ends are feasting against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020, as made evident by George Kittle (15-183-1), Eric Ebron (5-43), Tyler Higbee (5-54-3) and Logan Thomas (4-37-1). While Thomas and Ebron didn't exceed 50 yards in those games, they did post season-highs in yards and catches, respectively, and each pale in comparison to the natural talent and athleticism that Mark Andrews brings to this matchup. Andrews has cleared 55+ yards in three of five games this season, with one of those under games coming in Lamar Jackson's meltdown against Kansas City on Monday Night Football last month. Yes, I'm aware that we can't trust Lamar Jackson fully to feed his passing game weapons with consistency, but I do believe in the usage this season for Andrews (18 catches, 29 targets, 222 yards) operating as the team's 1B option next to Marquis Brown. This game could surprisingly involve more tempo and overall plays than your typical Ravens game, too, with Eagles' games averaging the fourth-most combined snaps this season. Philadelphia likes to speed it up as well, going no-huddle at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and sporting the eighth-quickest situation-neutral pace. I'll trust in the talent and the matchup, with an extra boost in overall play volume and snaps/targets to boot here.
- Eric Ebron - Over 33.5 receiving yards (buy up to 35.5): The aforementioned Ebron tied a season-high with five catches in Week 5 against those same Philadelphia Eagles, and gets just as juicy a matchup for tight ends in Week 6 with the Cleveland Browns coming to Heinz Field. Cleveland is bottom five in the NFL in receptions allowed to tight ends this year (6.6 per game). On the other hand, Ebron has seen his catches increase (1-3-5-5) in every game this season. The former first round pick is averaging six targets per game over the past three weeks too, and he actually ranked second on the team with six targets in Week 5, trailing only Chase Claypool. With Cleveland focused on stopping Claypool after his breakout game and having to respect JuJu in the slot, look for Ebron to benefit from a lack of attention over the middle of the field. He did lose a fumble late against the Eagles, sure, but the Steelers still won that game comfortably. This isn't saying a lot, but Ebron represents probably the most athletic - and dare I say most talented? - tight end that Big Ben has ever played with. Heath Miller truthers can come after me while I cash this low 33.5 ticket.
- AJ Brown - Over 65.5 receiving yards (buy up to 66.5): AJ Brown is simply THAT DUDE. The Ole Miss product came back from bone bruise in his knee to put up 7-82-1 on nine targets in Week 5 and looked borderline un-guardable against the solid Bills secondary, albeit without Tre'Davious White. While Bradley Roby has been solid in shadow coverage this season, it's not enough to scare me off this Week 6 matchup. Let's also not forget that Brown closed the 2019 regular season with 114 receiving yards or more in four of his final six games, and with no Corey Davis in this game, he will continue to serve as Ryan Tannehill's target of choice. Brown posted stud-level receiving lines of 8-114-1 and 4-124-1 last year in both of his games against the Houston Texans, and in a game that projects as one of the highest tempo matchups on the slate, I look for a ton of fantasy goodness, deep shots to Brown and overall points to be scored here. Houston's first game without Bill O'Brien in Week 5 saw the Texans post season-highs in points, passing yards and play-action, in addition to a 67% situation-neutral pass rate. I'm bullish on both AJ Brown and Will Fuller in my Week 6 fantasy rankings this week, with both comfortably locked inside my top 15 at WR.
- Will Fuller - Over 63.5 receiving yards (buy up 64.5): See AJ Brown above. Much of the same handicap for Brown's receiving prop applies to the uber-talented Will Fuller here as well. This Titans defense has been somewhat tough up front and limiting opposing backfields in 2020, which is all the more reason for Watson & Co to continue airing it out in this AFC South rivalry game. Last week, it was Brandin Cooks who blew up, although Fuller still saw eight targets but only caught half of them for a 4-58-1 line. If you give me eight Will Fuller targets I will gladly bet him over 65 yards almost every time, and with Titans games averaging the eight-most combined snaps this season, the setup is almost perfect for a shoot and high volume/high usage game. Tannehill's propensity to run no-huddle and take early snaps only helps our cause in Week 6 with this prop, and I don't expect the Texans to take their foot off the gas in the passing game like they did against the Jaguars in a game in which they led by multiple scores late and didn't need to throw in the fourth quarter.
- Mark Ingram - Under 43.5 rushing yards (buy down to 42.5): Our lone under play of the day so far is one of my favorites of the day. Philadelphia was torched by the Steelers' passing attack in Week 5, sure, but their run defense remains stout. The Eagles held James Conner to a lowly 2.9 yards per carry in that game, as Conner finished with just 15 carries for 44 yards as the lead dog in that backfield. Mark Ingram, is one of three Baltimore running backs vying for touches on a weekly basis and has cleared 40 yards rushing in just two of five games this season. Ingram has 11 or fewer total touches in all five games of 2020 as well. The Eagles not only limited Conner to his worst game of the season in Week 5, but they also held Jerick McKinnon to just 14-54 in Week 4, Joe Mixon to 17-49 (2.9 ypc) in Week 2 and Peyton Barber (17-29, 1.7 ypc) in Week 1. I don't expect Ingram to receive nearly as many touches as McKinnon or Mixon, which gives me the utmost confidence in this prop play here.
- *Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Adrian Peterson to score a TD