Editor's note: Chris is 86-65 (57%) for +6.3 units this season. All plays are tracked publicly in our Discord channel.
By Chris Dell
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Player Prop Bets I Made For Week 6
*win/loss units is based on betting to win 1 unit on each favored prop and risking 1 on each underdog prop
Breece Hall OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards @Barstool -114 (Half Unit, Buy Price 60.5)
Breece Hall OVER 12.5 rush attempts @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit)
The Jets have made it a priority to run the ball with Breece Hall, especially since the transition from pass-happy Joe Flacco to the young Zach Wilson. Since week one, Hall's snap count has increased from 45% to 69%, and over the last two weeks Hall out-carried Carter by eight rushing attempts, with 17 and 18 rushing attempts in each of the last two weeks for the talented rook. Using our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet the Jets are set to have a rush blocking advantage set at +9.3, which is seventh highest this week, despite them being hefty underdogs on the spread. The Packers front seven has given up big rushing games to running backs to the likes of David Montgomery and the lowly Bears offense (180 rushing yards, 27 attempts as a team), as well as the Patriots (167 rushing yards, 33 attempts as a team), Giants (125/31) and Vikings (126/28). Hall’s usage is increasing every week, in every metric you could fathom, and the matchup is ripe for an eruption game here, even in the Packers pull away comfortably late.
Tyler Allgeier UNDER 58.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 57.5)
Tyler Allgeier UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 47.5)
Since Cordarrelle Patterson went on the IR, the Falcons have been using three running backs in his place, in addition to Marcus Mariota serving as a fourth option in the run game. Now the Falcons face off against the 49ers this week and San Francisco holds a huge advantage in our cheat sheet’s run defense rankings. San Francisco hasn't allowed a single running back to rush for more than 58 yards this season despite facing Christian McCaffrey last week and David Montgomery in Week 1, along with some high quality backs sandwiched in between. Allgeier didn't have a single target last week either, with Avery Williams seemingly taking over that role, and now through four full games has a measly 2 targets/2 catches. The 49’ers rank 4th in PFF run defense, first in run defense DVOA and fourth in DVOA pass defense vs. the running back position. Allgeier had 45 rushing yards and zero receiving yards in what was actually a CLOSE game vs. Tampa Bay. I don’t expect San Francisco to allow a similar comeback/close game script this week, and that gives us a good chance to cash our unders on Allgeier, which would be his fourth time in five games going under each of these totals.
D.K. Metcalf OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
Tyler Lockett OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
This week Arizona and Seattle play in what is the second highest total of the week at 50.5, and the past three games Metcalf and Lockett have combined for 240 and 192 yards receiving, respectively, in what has now become the league’s #1 most heavily concentrated WR target tree. The current market has adjusted well, sure, but still not enough to account for pace of play in this week's matchup against the Cardinals. In what is likely to be a shootout on late Sunday afternoon, the Arizona pass rush ranks in the bottom tier of putting pressure on quarterbacks (also near dead last in coverage grade) and should give Geno plenty of time to find both wideouts this week. Metcalf got home for us the past two weeks even with a shadow matchup against Marshon Lattimore. With Seattle’s DVOA #1 offense and Geno ranking in the top 5 in nearly every QB efficiency metric known to mankind, we should be seeing each receiving line here lined closer to 80 or more. We don’t though, and that’s why I’m going right back to the well.
George Pickens OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards @Bet365 -110 (1 Unit, Buy Price 45.5)
George Pickens Longest Reception OVER 18.5 Yards @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit)
Zac Gentry OVER 2.5 Receptions @Bet365 -120 (Half Unit)
This line surprised me and with the news that Pat Freiermuth will miss this matchup against the Buccaneers which should give Pickens even more opportunity. This rookie receiver continues to have big games, with 102 yards during week four and 83 yards last week, the Steelers once again are underdogs at +9.5 against Tampa Bay and Pickens finds himself in another negative game script, which last week led to 50+ pass attempts from rookie QB Kenny Pickett against a tough Bills defense. Pickens is 5th overall in “intended air yards” per game over the last two weeks, in each game racking up 8 targets, 6 catches and 80+ yards in both games. The rookie to rookie connection is real in Pittsburgh, and with the Bucs looking to push the pace with their pass rate over expectation, I’ll surely bet on Pickens to end up with less than half the yards he had in a very similar situation in Week 4. Pickens has had a long reception of 23+ yards in four consecutive games now this year, even with Mitch Trubisky under center, and although Tampa Bay’s defense is stingy in the secondary, there’s a ton of opportunity for garbage time production here in Week 5. Similar process for me here with playing Zac Gentry over 2.5 receptions, as the second-year tight end will have a full-time role in a pass-heavy script with no Freiermuth. Gentry registered 6 targets and 5 receptions in Week 4 despite Freirmuth playing (albeit leaving early due to injury). All three Pittsburgh tight ends combined in that game for 10 targets, 9 catches and 67 yards, and in Week 3 we saw the group amass another impressive workload with Freiermuth leading the way, totaling another 10 targets for 8 catches. I’m all in on Pickett - not from a covering the spread perspective - but from a “he surely can’t be as bad or inefficient as Trubisky” perspective. That’s enough for me to play these overs with confidence.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards @Pointsbet -110 (1 Unit Play, Buy Price 59.5)
With legitimate trade rumors being reported on CMC, there’s a chance the Panthers could limit the amount of total touches McCaffrey sees in Week 6. Get the best price as soon as you can on this one, I wouldn't be surprised to see the lines move down the closer we get to kickoff, especially if new reports surface on CMC’s availability in the trade market. I was already leaning strongly to his under regardless for this weekend, especially given the fact that run defense ranks top 3 across the board in PFF run defense, DVOA run defense and ESPN’s run stop win rate. With a talented front seven and motivation to right the ship in L.A., the Rams don’t need to focus on much else besides slowing down the Panthers’ do-it-all back. McCaffrey went under this total for us last week vs. San Francisco, and with a similar spread/game script against L.A., it’s tough for me to see the Panthers be willing to run the ball late into this game if it’s a blowout.
Mike Evans OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards @Pointsbet -120 (Half Unit, Buy Price 68.5)
Mike Evans OVER Longest Reception 24.5 Yards @Superbook -122 (Half Unit, Would Buy Up To 25.5 or 26.5 at Plus Money)
Evans is #3 in converted air yards per game over the past three weeks, just as the Bucs have morphed complete back into their 2021 pass-happy ways. Evans is 3-for-3 to the over with this line in all NON-Marshon Lattimore shadow games (we see you, Marshon) and over the past two weeks has amassed 18 targets for 184 receiving yards against two above-average secondaries in Atlanta (#6 in PFF coverage grade - we see you tool, AJ Terrell) and Kansas City (top 10 in PFF coverage grade). Evans has three straight games with long grabs of 41, 30 and 40 yards and is the clear field-stretcher for TB12 with no more Antonio Brown (and Julio Jones) on the field, and he’s in possibly the best spot he’ll be in all season with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ decimated pass defense in Week 5. Tomlin’s skeleton screw secondary will be playing without T.J. Watt, Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring), Cam Sutton (hamstring), Levi Wallace (concussion), and Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee). Get your TB12 stacks ready. The Bucs WR’s should feast here.
Najee Harris UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards @Barstool -113 (Half Unit, Buy Price 42.5)
Najee Harris UNDER 61.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 60.5)
Another week, another Najee under. Harris was already one of the most inefficient RB’s in the league last season, and he somehow has been much worse in 2022 through five games. Maybe it’s the lisfranc injury, the same one both he and head coach Mike Tomlin have openly talked about to the media? Maybe it’s also the fact that Pittsburgh’s offense, especially over the last two weeks, has changed in a big way. Pickett extends plays with his legs when needed, as did Trubisky, which is a complete 180 to the ridiculous amount of RB dumpdown passes we saw from Big Ben last year. Najee’s box score results have suffered because of it, failing to top 15 carries in all but one game in 2022, and totaling just 21 receiving yards over his past 3 games, COMBINED. UDFA Jaylen Warren has looked like the better running back, that’s not even up for debate, and with another game in which the Steelers could lose by double digits, you have to wonder how long they’re willing to keep their hobbled former first-round pick on the field.
Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 66.5)
Marcus Mariota UNDER 199.5 Passing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit)
Wison has some competition in this backfield looming, as Shanahan crony Tevin Coleman worked his way back into a meaningful, albeit smaller role in Week 5, and now we have rookie Tyrion Davis-Price making his return after a multi-week ankle injury absence. Wilson is still in a smash spot regardless though. The Nines’ starting tailback has ripped off 74+ yards in four straight games now, including a season-high 120 yards on 17 carries last week. He’s had 17+ rush attempts in 3 of 4 starts, which included games against 2 of the top run defenses in the league in the Broncos and Rams. I’m continuing to ride the Wilson train until the wheels fall of, until another running back actually can challenge him for the starting role. And in this same game I’m going to another factor that we know well - the San Francisco 49ers pass defense, which ranks #1 in PFF coverage grade this year and #5 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the as well. Marcus Mariota, despite his prior history with HC Arthur Smith, is a prime candidate to benched for his rookie backup every week, and Week 6 is no different. Even in “negative game scripts” Mariota has struggled to top 200 passing yards, and this is by far the toughest secondary he’ll have faced to date in 2022. In comeback mode in Week 5 against the Bucs Mariota mustered only 147 yards, and with each week that goes by we’ve seen Smith trust his old QB friend less than less to open up the pass game. I’ll also be looking hard at Kyle Pitts unders in this game, as SF continues to be a place where tight ends go to die, with the 49ers ranking fourth overall in the NFL in DVOA pass defense vs. the tight end position this year.
James Robinson UNDER 40.5 Rushing Yards @Pointsbet -120 (Half Unit, Buy Price 39.5)
Alec Pierce OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards @Barstool -115 (Half Unit, Buy Price 46.5)
It might not seem obvious (yet), but the Indianapolis Colts sneakily have one of the top 5 run defenses in the league this season. Reich’s run-stopping unit ranks #2 in DVOA run defense and boasts our #1 overall run defense advantage for Week 6. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in the midst of a changing of the guard at RB. James Robinson achilles comeback story aside, has been very underwhelming (and inefficient) this year outside of some semi-fluky broken play runs has now seen his snap/rush attempt shares decrease in each of the last two weeks to make way for Travis Etienne’s increased role. Over the last two weeks Robinson has a combined 18 carries for 56 yards, and that’s despite him facing two halfway decent ground game matchups on paper compared to what he’ll get this week on the road. It took him 23 carries to total 64 rushing yards in Week 2 against the same Colts, finishing with a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry in the process, and that’s even with a 37-yard gain throw into the mix. Without that 37-yard game we’re talking about 22 carries for 27 yards. THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A SECOND. On the other side of the field I absolutely love the rookie wideout Alec Pierce to continue his ascension in the Colts pass attack this week. Pierce now has 61+ receiving yards in 3 straight weeks and is being used as his team’s primary downfield weapon en route to 15 targets and 161 yards combined over his last two outings alone. The Jaguars’ secondary ranks just 20th overall in our betting/props cheat sheet, and Michael Pittman has struggled to get on the same page with Matt Ryan since Week 1. We could be seeing Pierce’s line skyrocket after another strong showing, and he could very well be the team’s top target moving forward. Pierce is also one of the top 10 buys of the week on our Betting Predators Buy-Low Receiving Yards Prop Model.
Other plays I like for Week 6:
Kenneth Walker OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards @Bet365 -110 (Half Unit, Buy Price 62.5)
Darius Slayton OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards @Pointsbet -130 (Half Unit, Buy Price 38.5)
Jakobi Meyers OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards @FoxBet -125 (Half Unit)
Darrell Henderson OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards @PointsBet -120 (Half Unit)
Cooper Rush UNDER Longest Completion 34.5 Yards @DraftKing -115 (Half Unit)
Justin Jefferson OVER Longest Reception 26.5 Yards @Bet365 -115 (Half Unit)
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