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Chris Dell's FIFA World Cup 2022 Betting Cheat Sheet

 

· Soccer,World Cup

WORLD CUP 2022: BETTING BREAKDOWN

Resource: FIFA World Rankings (Last updated on October 6th, 2022)

GROUP POWER RANKINGS

Group Mean Avg = 21.9375

  1. Group B = 15 (“group of death 1A”) -> England, USA, Wales, Iran
  2. Group E = 18.25 (“group of death 1B”) -> Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica
  3. Group G = 20 0 -> Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon
  4. Group F = 20.5 -> Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada
  5. Group D = 20.5 -> France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia
  6. Group C = 23.25 -> Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia
  7. Group H = 28 -> Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana 
  8. Group A = 30 -> Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar

WORST TEAMS IN FIELD

World ranking = 24th or worse

Japan #24 (E)

Poland #26 (C)

South Korea #28 (H)

Tunisia #30 (D)

Costa Rica #31 (E)

Australia #38 (D)

Canada #41

Cameroon #43

Ecuador #44 (A)

Qatar #50 (A)

Saudi Arabia #51 (C)

Ghana #61 (H)

Biggest World Rating "Net Average" Advantages for #1 Seeds

“To Win Group” odds listed below from DraftKings Sportsbook

(-280) Netherlands +29.3 -> Senegal/Ecuador/Qatar (A)

(-250) Argentina +27 -> Mexico/Poland/Saudi Arabia (C)

(-300) Brazil +25.3 -> Switzerland/Serbia/Cameroon (G)

(-145) Portugal +25.3 -> Uruguay/South Korea/Ghana (H)

(-190) Belgium +23 -> Croatia/Morocco/Canada (F)

(-225) France +22 -> Denmark/Tunisia/Australia (D)

(-115) Spain +15 -> Germany/Japan/Costa Rica (E)

(-280) England +13.7 -> USA/Wales/Iran (B)


Biggest World Rating "Net Average" Advantages for #2 Seeds

"To Qualify From Group” odds listed below from DraftKings Sportsbook

(-220) Uruguay +30.5 -> Ghana/South Korea (H)

(-110) Senegal +29 -> Ecuador/Qatar (A)

(-120) Mexico +25.5 -> Poland/Saudi Arabia (C)

(-280) Denmark +24 -> Tunisia/Australia (D)

(-200) Croatia +19.5 -> Morocco/Canada (F)

(+100) Switzerland +17 -> Serbia/Cameroon (G)

(-650) Germany +16.5 -> Japan/Costa Rica (E)

(-105) USA +3.5 -> Wales/Iran (B)


Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 1 of 3”:

  • +52 Portugal (-255) vs Ghana = H
  • +48 Argentina (-600) vs Saudi Arabia = C
  • +39 Belgium (-215) vs Canada = F
  • +34 France (-400) vs Australia = D
  • +28 Switzerland (-140) vs Cameroon = G
  • +24 Spain (-600) vs Costa Rica = E
  • +20 Brazil (-235) vs Serbia = G
  • +20 Denmark (-225) vs Tunisia = D
  • +15 England (-275) vs. Iran = B
  • +14 Uruguay (-130) vs South Korea = H
  • +13 Mexico (+170) vs. Poland = C
  • +13 Germany (-205) vs Japan = E
  • +10 Netherlands (-165) vs. Senegal (+475) = A
  • +10 Croatia (+100) vs Morocco (+400) = F
  • +6 Ecuador (+135) + Qatar (+230) = A
  • +3 USA (+165) vs. Wales (+195); Draw (+195) = B


Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 2 of 3”:

  • +42 Netherlands (-180) vs Ecuador = A
  • +33 South Korea (+165) vs Ghana = H
  • +32 Senegal (+105) vs Qatar = A
  • +29 Croatia (-135) vs Canada = F
  • +25 Poland (-165) vs Saudi Arabia = C
  • +22 Serbia (-125) vs Cameroon = G
  • +20 Belgium (-190) vs Morocco = F
  • +14 Brazil (-210) vs Switzerland = G
  • +11 England (-170) vs USA = B
  • +10 Argentina (-195) vs Mexico = C
  • +8 Tunisia (+175) vs Australia (+170) = D
  • +7 Japan (-160) vs Costa Rica (+425) = E
  • +6 France (+100) vs Denmark (+285) = D
  • +5 Portugal (+105) vs Uruguay (+265); Draw (+230) = H
  • +4 Spain (+160) vs Germany (+170); Draw (+225) = E
  • +1 Wales (+135) vs Iran (+230); Draw (+200) = B


Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 1 of 3”:

  • +47 Uruguay (-130) vs Ghana = H
  • +42 Brazil (-400) vs Cameroon = G
  • +42 Netherlands (-400) vs Qatar = A
  • +38 Mexico (-150) vs Saudi Arabia = C
  • +28 Denmark (-190) vs Australia = D
  • +26 Senegal (+150) vs Ecuador = A
  • +26 France (-310) vs Tunisia = D
  • +23 Argentina (-155) vs Poland = C
  • +20 Germany (-425) vs Costa Rica = E
  • +19 Portugal (-205) vs South Korea = H
  • +19 Morocco (+150) vs Canada = F
  • +17 Spain (-240) vs Japan = E
  • +14 England (-180) vs Wales = B
  • +10 Belgium (+120) vs Croatia = F
  • +6 Switzerland (+165) vs Serbia (+175) = G
  • +4 USA (+100) vs Iran (+280); Draw (+230) = B

GROUP BREAKDOWNS

Resource: FIFA World Rankings (Last updated on October 6th, 2022)

 

GROUP A

Netherlands #8

Senegal #18

Ecuador #44

Qatar #50

AVG = 30

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +29.3 (NED vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +10 Netherlands vs. Senegal
  • +6 Ecuador + Qatar


GROUP B

England #5

USA #16

Wales #19

Iran #20

AVG = 15

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +13.7 (ENG vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +15 England vs. Iran
  • +3 USA vs. Wales


GROUP C

Argentina #3

Mexico #13

Poland #26

Saudi Arabia #51

AVG = 23.25

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +27 (ARG vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +48 Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
  • +13 Mexico vs. Poland


GROUP D

France #4

Denmark #10

Tunisia #30

Australia #38

AVG = 20.5

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +22 (FRA vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +34 France vs Australia
  • +20 Denmark vs Tunisia


GROUP E

Spain #7

Germany #11

Japan #24

Costa Rica #31

AVG = 18.25

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +15 (SPA vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +24 Spain vs Costa Rica
  • +13 Germany vs Japan


GROUP F

Belgium #2

Croatia  #12

Morocco #22

Canada #41

AVG =  19.25

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +23 (BEL vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +39 Belgium vs Canada
  • +10 Croatia vs Morocco


GROUP G

Brazil #1

Switzerland #15

Serbia #21

Cameroon #43

AVG = 20

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +25.3 (BRA vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +20 Brazil vs Serbia
  • +28 Switzerland vs Cameroon


GROUP H

Portugal #9

Uruguay #14

South Korea #28

Ghana #61

AVG = 28

NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +25.3 (POR vs. rest of group avg)

MATCHDAY #1

  • +52 Portugal vs Ghana
  • +14 Uruguay vs South Korea

 

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