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    Chris Dell's FIFA World Cup 2022 Betting Cheat Sheet

     

    · Soccer,World Cup

    WORLD CUP 2022: BETTING BREAKDOWN

    Resource: FIFA World Rankings (Last updated on October 6th, 2022)

    GROUP POWER RANKINGS

    Group Mean Avg = 21.9375

    1. Group B = 15 (“group of death 1A”) -> England, USA, Wales, Iran
    2. Group E = 18.25 (“group of death 1B”) -> Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica
    3. Group G = 20 0 -> Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon
    4. Group F = 20.5 -> Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada
    5. Group D = 20.5 -> France, Denmark, Tunisia, Australia
    6. Group C = 23.25 -> Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia
    7. Group H = 28 -> Portugal, Uruguay, South Korea, Ghana 
    8. Group A = 30 -> Netherlands, Senegal, Ecuador, Qatar

    WORST TEAMS IN FIELD

    World ranking = 24th or worse

    Japan #24 (E)

    Poland #26 (C)

    South Korea #28 (H)

    Tunisia #30 (D)

    Costa Rica #31 (E)

    Australia #38 (D)

    Canada #41

    Cameroon #43

    Ecuador #44 (A)

    Qatar #50 (A)

    Saudi Arabia #51 (C)

    Ghana #61 (H)

    Biggest World Rating "Net Average" Advantages for #1 Seeds

    “To Win Group” odds listed below from DraftKings Sportsbook

    (-280) Netherlands +29.3 -> Senegal/Ecuador/Qatar (A)

    (-250) Argentina +27 -> Mexico/Poland/Saudi Arabia (C)

    (-300) Brazil +25.3 -> Switzerland/Serbia/Cameroon (G)

    (-145) Portugal +25.3 -> Uruguay/South Korea/Ghana (H)

    (-190) Belgium +23 -> Croatia/Morocco/Canada (F)

    (-225) France +22 -> Denmark/Tunisia/Australia (D)

    (-115) Spain +15 -> Germany/Japan/Costa Rica (E)

    (-280) England +13.7 -> USA/Wales/Iran (B)


    Biggest World Rating "Net Average" Advantages for #2 Seeds

    "To Qualify From Group” odds listed below from DraftKings Sportsbook

    (-220) Uruguay +30.5 -> Ghana/South Korea (H)

    (-110) Senegal +29 -> Ecuador/Qatar (A)

    (-120) Mexico +25.5 -> Poland/Saudi Arabia (C)

    (-280) Denmark +24 -> Tunisia/Australia (D)

    (-200) Croatia +19.5 -> Morocco/Canada (F)

    (+100) Switzerland +17 -> Serbia/Cameroon (G)

    (-650) Germany +16.5 -> Japan/Costa Rica (E)

    (-105) USA +3.5 -> Wales/Iran (B)


    Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 1 of 3”:

    • +52 Portugal (-255) vs Ghana = H
    • +48 Argentina (-600) vs Saudi Arabia = C
    • +39 Belgium (-215) vs Canada = F
    • +34 France (-400) vs Australia = D
    • +28 Switzerland (-140) vs Cameroon = G
    • +24 Spain (-600) vs Costa Rica = E
    • +20 Brazil (-235) vs Serbia = G
    • +20 Denmark (-225) vs Tunisia = D
    • +15 England (-275) vs. Iran = B
    • +14 Uruguay (-130) vs South Korea = H
    • +13 Mexico (+170) vs. Poland = C
    • +13 Germany (-205) vs Japan = E
    • +10 Netherlands (-165) vs. Senegal (+475) = A
    • +10 Croatia (+100) vs Morocco (+400) = F
    • +6 Ecuador (+135) + Qatar (+230) = A
    • +3 USA (+165) vs. Wales (+195); Draw (+195) = B


    Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 2 of 3”:

    • +42 Netherlands (-180) vs Ecuador = A
    • +33 South Korea (+165) vs Ghana = H
    • +32 Senegal (+105) vs Qatar = A
    • +29 Croatia (-135) vs Canada = F
    • +25 Poland (-165) vs Saudi Arabia = C
    • +22 Serbia (-125) vs Cameroon = G
    • +20 Belgium (-190) vs Morocco = F
    • +14 Brazil (-210) vs Switzerland = G
    • +11 England (-170) vs USA = B
    • +10 Argentina (-195) vs Mexico = C
    • +8 Tunisia (+175) vs Australia (+170) = D
    • +7 Japan (-160) vs Costa Rica (+425) = E
    • +6 France (+100) vs Denmark (+285) = D
    • +5 Portugal (+105) vs Uruguay (+265); Draw (+230) = H
    • +4 Spain (+160) vs Germany (+170); Draw (+225) = E
    • +1 Wales (+135) vs Iran (+230); Draw (+200) = B


    Biggest "NET RATING" Ranking Differential For “Matchday 1 of 3”:

    • +47 Uruguay (-130) vs Ghana = H
    • +42 Brazil (-400) vs Cameroon = G
    • +42 Netherlands (-400) vs Qatar = A
    • +38 Mexico (-150) vs Saudi Arabia = C
    • +28 Denmark (-190) vs Australia = D
    • +26 Senegal (+150) vs Ecuador = A
    • +26 France (-310) vs Tunisia = D
    • +23 Argentina (-155) vs Poland = C
    • +20 Germany (-425) vs Costa Rica = E
    • +19 Portugal (-205) vs South Korea = H
    • +19 Morocco (+150) vs Canada = F
    • +17 Spain (-240) vs Japan = E
    • +14 England (-180) vs Wales = B
    • +10 Belgium (+120) vs Croatia = F
    • +6 Switzerland (+165) vs Serbia (+175) = G
    • +4 USA (+100) vs Iran (+280); Draw (+230) = B

    GROUP BREAKDOWNS

    Resource: FIFA World Rankings (Last updated on October 6th, 2022)

     

    GROUP A

    Netherlands #8

    Senegal #18

    Ecuador #44

    Qatar #50

    AVG = 30

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +29.3 (NED vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +10 Netherlands vs. Senegal
    • +6 Ecuador + Qatar


    GROUP B

    England #5

    USA #16

    Wales #19

    Iran #20

    AVG = 15

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +13.7 (ENG vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +15 England vs. Iran
    • +3 USA vs. Wales


    GROUP C

    Argentina #3

    Mexico #13

    Poland #26

    Saudi Arabia #51

    AVG = 23.25

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +27 (ARG vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +48 Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
    • +13 Mexico vs. Poland


    GROUP D

    France #4

    Denmark #10

    Tunisia #30

    Australia #38

    AVG = 20.5

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +22 (FRA vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +34 France vs Australia
    • +20 Denmark vs Tunisia


    GROUP E

    Spain #7

    Germany #11

    Japan #24

    Costa Rica #31

    AVG = 18.25

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +15 (SPA vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +24 Spain vs Costa Rica
    • +13 Germany vs Japan


    GROUP F

    Belgium #2

    Croatia  #12

    Morocco #22

    Canada #41

    AVG =  19.25

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +23 (BEL vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +39 Belgium vs Canada
    • +10 Croatia vs Morocco


    GROUP G

    Brazil #1

    Switzerland #15

    Serbia #21

    Cameroon #43

    AVG = 20

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +25.3 (BRA vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +20 Brazil vs Serbia
    • +28 Switzerland vs Cameroon


    GROUP H

    Portugal #9

    Uruguay #14

    South Korea #28

    Ghana #61

    AVG = 28

    NET #1 SEED PWR RTG = +25.3 (POR vs. rest of group avg)

    MATCHDAY #1

    • +52 Portugal vs Ghana
    • +14 Uruguay vs South Korea

     

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