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We finish up our NFL Awards/Futures deep dive series with the Comeback Player of the Year (also known as "CPOY"). This an award that actually offers some value, unlike the previous articles on MVP and offensive/defensive players of the year. The Comeback Player of the Year only started being awarded in the 1998 season with Doug Flutie winning the first ever one. Click here to see the full data used in the article below. As always, the odds are provided by sports odd history. Now let’s dive in and find our edge.
Offense or Pass
This award, to no one's surprise I'm guessing, is dominated by offense. Overall, 19 of the 24 winners have played offense. Of those 19 offensive winners, 14 have been the QB. Not surprising either, as QB can rack up stats and the media simply loves QBs. After that, these winners average a 10-6 record during the course of the regular season. Only one player has ever won this award and not had a .500 record or better, and that was Bryant Young of the 49ers back in 1999 when he went 4-12. Lastly, these players are also performing well in their respective divisions. Only three times has these winners taken 3rd or 4th place in their division. All in all, we want an offensive player that is most likely a QB and who will win some games.
Dak Prescott is a guy that's getting a lot of media love, and I don’t blame them for picking him for the narrative here. With his injury, however, I am just not sure how to approach Dak. He hasn’t taken a snap in the preseason or regular season since Week 5 of last year, and he likely won’t be sharp to start with. You might be better of holding off on him to start with so the markets shift and we find a better number later.
Next up is Joe Burrow, but how is his knee? Burrow will likely have the stats needed to win this award this year, but the Cincinnati Bengals project to only be a 5 or 6 win team this season, maybe 7 if they are lucky.
What about Carson Wentz? Another guy similar to Dak with injury to start the preseason (although he could now start in Week 1), but it also seems like you are better off waiting to bet Wentz if it seems like he starts off the season with rust. He hasn’t had much practice, but at least he played most of last season.
My personal choice (although I haven’t bet it yet) is Christian McCaffrey. He is a player the media also loves and almost didn’t play at all last year. He now projects to be back to his normal self and the Carolina Panthers to me project to be an 8 or 9 win team this year. I really wanted Matthew Stafford here, but he isn’t listed for various reasons. Does another player stand out to you? Tweet me @DanRivera228