NFL week 4 is already right around the corner, and you can get fantastic CLV (closing line value) by playing these lines a week early. Come Sunday night, these lines will move very fast and CLV is very difficult to come by in these cases. For the odds below, I am looking at both FanDuel and BetOnline. The primary goal with these articles is to get ahead of these line moves before they get slammed. Shoutout to BC in Houston (@TexSR_Brandon) and @AvoidtheVig for providing feedback on this! Let's get to it:
Colts @ Bears (+2, -110 on FanDuel)
I've had my fair share of bashing Mitch Trubisky, and even though I am a Colts fan, that doesn’t mean I'll bet bad lines. The Colts laying only -2 for a flight of less than 1 hour from Indianapolis implies the Colts would be less than a TD favorite at home over the Bears. The Bears are at the Falcons this week and I think they lose outright here. The Bears are a fraudulent 2-0 team, winning close games against the Lions and the Giants. The Colts play the Jets in Week 3, a team that is trotting out what looks like a preseason roster. No one would be remotely surprised if the Colts win via blowout this week before facing Chicago in Week 4.
The real kicker for me is that we are under -3 for the Colts and the Bears are in a big lookahead spot as well. The Bears play the Buccaneers on a Thursday night game in Week 5, and I will gladly lay the -2 before this line gets bet up. This game is -2.5 (-105) on BetOnline, and I am fine with that also. Get under the key number of 3 here while you can. It certainly won't last long.
Falcons @ Packers (-6 , -110 on FanDuel)
I am rooting super hard for the Falcons to win this week so we get another week of coach Dan Quinn. The Packers are most likely without Davanate Adams against the Saints on Sunday Night Football in Week 3 with his hamstring injury, and I am not sure if he goes in Week 4 either. Sunday Night Football, on the other hand, is also a marquee game that can move lines depending on the results. If the Packers win here on SNF, then this line will go up. The Falcons defense is beat up and when they aren’t beat up, they still stink. I will lay the points with the Packers as long as we stay under the key number of 7 for this Week 4 tilt.
Eagles @ 49ers (-3.5, -110 on FanDuel and BetOnline)
The 49ers are beyond beat up themselves. Against the Giants, the 49ers are putting out what resembles a mediocre preseason squad. I don’t recognize a lot of the starters for them this week, and my gut feeling says the Eagles win and the 49ers lose in Week 3. The 49ers, when healthy on the defensive side, are living off their reputation from last year. They lost Buckner, lost a high end assistant coach, and the secondary is another year older. Bosa is also done for the year, Thomas went to IR, and Sherman is on IR. The 49ers aren’t good enough this week, nor next week, to be laying points for the time being. Since 2014, teams off back-to-back road games at home are 138-168-12 ATS (43.6%). The COVID-19 situation will amplify this trend because the 49ers have been in a bubble without friends and family the last week out in West Virginia. These players have a life and need to make sure home life is good before they can focus on football.
The +3.5 will not last here. Grab the +3.5 now or if you want the 49ers next week, wait for a better number. This game seems like a good middle opportunity to me also. The Eagles could be in a big bounce back spot in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals, further boosting their public perception and market profile.