Welcome ladies, gentlemen and fellow NCAA men's college basketball degenerates, to my weekly Summit League review and recap! I take a lot of pride in both breaking down and handicapping these CBB plays, simply because you can find some real edges in the market (along with other small conferences), and that's why you hear me constantly covering them in the podcast and on Twitter as well. This will be the intro in every article, and I will also be recapping/review the Horizon League as well. Both of these conferences play on back-to-back nights vs. the same opponent to cut down on travel for COVID purposes.
Don’t be confused about the schedule when you go to bet these games, as each of these conferences mainly play Friday/Saturday or Saturday/Sunday. Both articles will be out by Wednesday night (Thursday at the latest) every week through March Madness. Personally I handicap every conference game and keep a lot of my work private. I do this because it forces me to look at every conference game and it helps me find real holes, since we are somewhat limited on our weekly choices. If you have any questions, thoughts or insights for now and/or going forward, feel free to contact me on Twitter any time @DanRivera228.
RECAP - North Dakota State (NDSU) @ Western Illinois (WIU)
- Game 1: NDSU 68-50 (NDSU -6.5, 138.5)
- Game 2: NDSU 78-67 (NDSU -8, 137)
- Last year: NDSU 2-0 (SU/ATS); 1-1 (O/U)
I tweeted out last week to take both the game total over and NDSU team total over 72.5 in game one, and well, we lost both. We had the right side on the NDSU team total, however, as we were at 68 and had 3.5 minutes left in the game to get 5 points. We got 0. Can you can sense how salty I am about this play still? Still salty, yes, especially because the next day we got both the over and team total over like we originally bet on the day before. Something I will be doing this season is keeping an eye on how these teams do back-to-back games vs. the same opponent. So far, each of these teams generally win and cover both games, but we have a very small sample size currently. Stay tuned for more on this potential trend.
NDSU dominated WIU in game one 68-50 and won game two 78-67. Neither team surprised me here score-wise, as WIU has been known for very hit or miss shooting type of nights. WIU shot only 27% from the field in game one, hence the lopsided score. South Dakota State travels to WIU next weekend, and I will be looking to fade WIU again at home. WIU isn’t just bad, they are atrocious. You get a nice discount fading this team at home, too, because the books simply don’t want the premium on the road team. WIU as a home team since 2019 (have to keep this sample size small since we have so much turnover in CBB every 2-3 years) is 3-11-1 ATS. That is 21.4% ATS overall, with an ATS margin of -5.5. I will keep fading this Summit League bottom-feeder type of team at home because these books aren’t adjusting enough.
RECAP - Oral Roberts (ORU) @ Omaha
- Game 1: ORU 95-83 (ORU -2, 152.5)
- Game 2: ORU 86-75 (ORU -3.5, 156)
- Last year: ORU 2-1 (SU), 1-2 (ATS); 1-2 O/U
Sleepy and I gave this pick at over 152.5 on our Betting Predators CBB free play podcast, especially after the fact that the books only adjusted three points after the first game going way over. The first game had a combined 178 points, and game two still hit on a hefty total of 161 points. Oral Roberts can put up points against crappy defenses, so don’t be shocked if this team drops 100+ in a couple of conference games this year. They are home next weekend vs. North Dakota, a team who isn’t very good at anything. Don’t be surprised if I give out ORU -12 here. ORU has the potential to beat North Dakota by 20+.
Omaha is a team who has had a tough schedule and is better than what the scoreboard showed vs. ORU. This Omaha Squad had a bad shooting night from three, going just 8.3% from beyond the arc. Omaha isn’t a very good team, but it can beat bottom-feeding Summit League opponents with ease. Omaha goes to North Dakota State next weekend, and last year the line was -8.5 when they traveled there. Don’t be surprised if we get a similar line all the way up to -12 here. Hopefully we get -10 and can make a play.
RECAP - University of Missouri Kansas City (UMKC) @ North Dakota (ND)
- Game 1: ND 52-45, (ND -3, 128)
- Game 2: UMKC 77-53, (UMKC +1.5, Over 124)
- Last year: didn’t play
UMKC was once in the Summit League for a bit, left the conference, and now is back. I don’t know much about UMKC yet, besides the fact that it plays very slow basketball. I do know that North Dakota stinks though - especially on the road - and this team won’t get much better this year as we move forward.
RECAP - Denver @ South Dakota (SD)
- Game 1: SD 93-54, (SD -9, 146.5)
- Game 2: SD 79-57, (SD -13, 145)
- Last year: SD 2-0 SU/ATS; 2-0 O/U
Denver flat out stinks. They lost both games by 20+. The first game they lost by nearly 40 (!) and their only win so far this year came against some NAIA team. This is a team you just want to fade for most of the year. South Dakota, on the other hand, well I'm still not sure about this team after playing such a bad team.