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So all the Saints do is beat the Bucs over and over again since Tom Brady moved South and New Orleans is still nearly a field goal home dog in this game? Sure, Sean Payton isn’t on the sideline anymore for the Saints, but Dennis Allen still is. Allen has been the mastermind behind the Saints defense that has routinely stifled Brady and company the last two seasons. Of course, it can’t hurt that the personnel New Orleans has on defense is pretty good too. How else do you nearly eek into the playoffs in a season in each you seemingly have a new quarterback every week like the Saints did last year? In four regular season games against Brady’s Buccaneers, the Saints have outscored Tampa 117-53! Unsurprisingly the Saints won and covered each of those four games. Until the market corrects itself in these games, there’s no reason to stop betting New Orleans so we’ll take the 2.5 points in this one.
It’s probably not a surprise to know that the Patriots last started 0-2 in 2001. While the schedule makers didn’t do New England any favors here with back-to-back road games against Miami and Pittsburgh to start 2022, the Patriots are the only side you can play in this game against the Steelers. Week 2 can be a good week to capitalize on overreactions or phony narratives. What do we really know about these teams after just one game? While I agree that the correct team is favored in this game, it’s not surprise to see Pittsburgh as a trendy dog at a lot of sportsbooks. Think about the noise surrounding both of these teams. New England just lost by double digits against a Miami team that at best is a wild card this year. Pittsburgh just won on the road against the defending AFC Champions and controlled the game for most of regulation. That must make Steelers +2 free money right? Not so fast. I have plenty of doubts about New England’s offensive personnel and coaching staff for the entire season, but I like the spot here for the Patriots. Is a Bill Belichick defense about to lose to Mitch Trubisky? Me thinks no. I’ll give the deuce and back New England.
Fat and Happy Big Blue
Was there a more impressive win in Week 1 in the NFL than the New York Giants rallying in the second half in Nashville to defeat last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC? Brian Daboll elected to go for two and the win at the end of regulation last week, and Saquon Barkley made him look smart as the Giants defeated the Titans as 5.5-point road dogs after surviving a missed field goal by Tennessee in the closing seconds. So here come the Giants back home to the Meadowlands, over .500 for the first time since 2016, playing the Panthers, the team that perhaps most epitomizes average in the NFL. Sure, last week was a nice win for the G-Men. Following it up without flinching is easier said than done and for a team that’s been living in the basement for the last five years, our money says the Giants are in for a letdown. We’re on Carolina +2.
It’s Past your Bedtime Kirk
Do you even need to bet regularly to know Kirk Cousins and primetime are not a good match? The Minnesota signal caller will enter Monday night’s clash with the Eagles at 8-17 straight-up in primetime games and 2-9 straight-up on Monday Night Football. Much like our short favorite play on New England, we think there’s some narrative juice worth fading in this one as well. Like the Steelers, the Vikings appear to be a popular underdog this week too and when you smoke Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the way they did last week in a late afternoon FOX game that most of the country saw it’s easy to see why. The Eagles were mixed in with the rest of the 1 PM ET kickoffs, had all sorts of defensive problems with the Lions last week, failed to cover and nearly lost outright. The Vikings have a better quarterback and better skill players than Detroit so this should be easy pickings for Cousins and company, right? Eh, not really. Let’s not forget the Eagles were still picked by many to win the NFC East before Dak Prescott’s injury and some pundits felt they could flirt with the NFC’s top seed in the playoffs after the litany of moves Howie Roseman made in the offseason. Having to lay less than three in this game with a team of that caliber at home is a good bet in our books.