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Birds Flying A Little Too High?
Let’s pick up where we left off last week. For the newcomers, our final Week 2 spot was both a fade of Kirk Cousins in primetime and a buy on the Eagles at what we believed to be a cheap price at -2. It sure would be nice if all tickets cashed that easily as Philly won 24-7 after getting out of the gate hot on Monday Night Football. As per usual, after a team makes a statement on national television, said team can be a be little pricey in the betting market the following week. There’s some of that going on in this one as the Eagles make the short trip down I-95 to Landover, Maryland to take on the Commanders. Washington got embarrassed last week in Detroit. However, we’re always about the gambling proverb no team is as good or as bad as it looks in any one given week. There’s a bit of each of those elements with both Philadelphia and Washington entering this NFC East clash thus creating some line value on the team coming off the loss. Anyone up for a Carson Wentz revenge game? We’ll take Washington +6.5.
Confident Jags Heading West
It’s funny how we’re transitioning from an NFC East game to highlighting an AFC South team. For years now the NFC East has been the butt of many jokes due to the ineptitude of the entire division and in 2022 it certainly looks like that division is going to be the AFC South. However, there might be a motivational advantage to capitalize on when it comes to the team currently occupying first place in the division. At 1-1, Jacksonville is the only team in the AFC South to have won a game entering Week 3. After last week’s dominant 24-0 shutout of Indianapolis, you have to think the Jaguars are a pretty confident team as they head cross country to face off with the Chargers. Heck, they were pretty close to winning in Week 1 against Washington and could easily be 2-0. I don’t think it’s impossible to think Jacksonville sustains a level of competence it hasn’t had since its run to the AFC Championship game five years ago. No, I’m not forecasting that deep of a run this season for the guys in Duval, but I would not be surprised if they did win this awful division. As for how all this plays in Week 3, I think we’re getting a fired up Jacksonville team that does believe it’s ahead of schedule and could overachieve the rest of the season and is eager to capitalize on how the season has started for everyone else in the AFC South. I’ll bet on that confidence at least resulting in a close game against the Chargers, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Justin Herbert’s ribs. Give me the Jaguars +7.
Rodgers’ Tampa Turmoil
In the first game post-Davante Adams, the Packers offense looked pretty lifeless in a 23-7 loss in Minnesota. Last week was a nice response from the cheese heads as they possessed the ball for over 37 minutes and rushed for over 200 yards in a 27-10 victory against Chicago. Our guess is this Sunday looks more like Week 1 than Week 2 for the Packers. Green Bay’s Week 3 opponent, Tampa Bay, has allowed a total of 171 rushing yards in two games so far in 2022. So don’t expect the same kind of ball control dominance from Green Bay this week that you saw in Week 2. In five starts in the regular season against the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers has a passer rating of just 74.4 and has thrown 9 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns. The Packers went 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread in those five games. Rodgers’ numbers were good against Tampa in the 2020 NFC Championship game, but he was still sacked five times in that game and threw a pick in what ended up being a 31-26 win and cover for Tampa Bay at Lambeau Field. While some might be caught up in Tampa’s inability to generate big plays on offense without Chris Godwin and with Mike Evans suspended this week, the Bucs are winning with defense so far this year and that’s how they’ve always beat Aaron Rodgers. Back Tampa Bay -1 in the marquee late afternoon game on Sunday.
Coaching For Dummies
Remember those (insert topic here) For Dummies books? Do they still publish those? Well, if there was a “Coaching in the NFL in 2022 for Dummies” book, Kyle Shanahan could author it and Nathaniel Hackett would have to read it. All Shanahan has done in the Bay Area is win double digit games every year and plenty of playoff games. Meanwhile, the new Denver head coach has looked completely lost and would be most people’s early vote for the worst hire of the cycle out of the ten new head coaches in 2022. It’s a widely held belief that the change from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo for San Francisco at quarterback is at the very worst a wash if not a clear upgrade so we’re confident Garoppolo steps right in and picks up where he left off in 2021, engineering the 49ers on another deep playoff run. After all, we did see Jimmy G step in last week and do what he usually does in managing the game and guiding San Francisco to a win and cover over Seattle. One other coaching element that makes us like the 49ers side in this one, rising star defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans should know a thing or two about Russell Wilson’s tendencies having had to game plan against him all those years Wilson was a Seahawk. 49ers -1.5 is our final situational spot we’re backing in Week 3.