By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 2 TOP BUYS (Strokes Gained Rating)
Jon Rahm +8.01****
Joaquin Niemann +5.79***
Russell Knox +5.68***
Justin Thomas +5.00
Andrew Putnam +4.82***
Patrick Rodgers +4.79***
Cameron Tringale +4.41
Si Woo Kim +4.27
Matthew NeSmith +3.88***
Adam Hadwin +3.81
Sam Burns +3.64
Sebastian Munoz +3.51***
Carlos Ortiz +3.11
Max Homa +2.99
Doc Redman +2.95
GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 2 TOP FADES (Strokes Gained Rating)
Andrew Landry -11.66***
Harold Varner III -6.71***
Adam Schenk -6.09
Kramer Hickok -5.79
Mackenzie Hughes -4.71
Kyounghoon Lee -4.57
Henrick Norlander -4.03
Danny Lee -3.72
Vincent Whaley -3.71
Emiliano Grillo -3.50
Thomas Pieters -3.48
Aaron Beverly -3.42
Alex Smalley -3.23
Harry Higgs -3.23
Jason Kokrak -3.11***
BEST BETS FOR ROUND 2:
Head To Heads (0.5 Units) -
- Andrew Putnam +0.5 -125, +105 ML > Thomas Pieters (BetOnline), Net Score +8.30
- Sam Burns -120 > Kokrak (DraftKings), Net Score +6.75
3 Balls (0.25 Units) -
- Putnam +170 > Pieters & Higgs (DK) / +8.30 & + +8.05 = +8.175 (average)
- The Field -180 > Niemann/Scheffler/Thomas/Morikawa (BetOnline)
Outrights (0.1 Units):
- No Traditional Outright Bets So Far
Longshots (0.05 Units):
- Rahm 14:1 (BO), 35:1 SRL (CZ)
- Knox 125:1 (BO), 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- Ortiz 80:1 (DK), 95:1 SRL (CZ)
- Rodgers 200:1 (BO), 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- Tringale 100:1 (BO), 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- Kim 120:1 (FD), 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- NeSmith 420:1 (FD), 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- Redman 350:1 (FD) 100:1 SRL (CZ)
- Putnam 550:1 (FD)
- Munoz 300:1 (DK)
- Burns 125:1 (BO)
- Hadwin 1,000:1 (DK)
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
***Golfer qualifies in at least 3 of 4 threshold metrics for Strokes Gained Putting, Strokes Gained Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating (Ball Striking) and Strokes Gained Net Rating (Tee To Green)
SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie