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Genesis Invitational: Round 3 Best Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· PGA,Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistic we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Net Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our best buys and fades for H2H matchup bets from round to round.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained tee to green numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will often regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals 'ball striking') are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained net rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained net rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass. We especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

  • Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green

  • Strokes Gained: Putting

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 3 TOP BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating)

Matt Jones +6.75 *****

Cameron Smith +5.82 *****

Joel Dahmen +5.42 ***

Dylan Frittelli +4.17 ***

Paul Casey +4.12 ***

Aaron Wise +4.05 ***

Alex Noren +4.02 ***

Sebastian Munoz +4.13 **

​Jordan Spieth +3.99 **

Max Homa +3.74 **

Scott Piercy +3.65 **

Nick Watney +3.09 **

GENESIS INVITATIONAL: ROUND 3 TOP FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating)

 

Doc Redman -4.17 ***

Peter Malnati -3.47 ***

Sahith Theegala -3.47 ***

Maverick McNealy -3.03 ***

Kyounghoon Lee -2.96 ***

Lee Hodges -4.18 **

Abraham Ancer -3.84 (REDACTED)

BEST BETS FOR ROUND 3:

Head To Heads (0.5 Units) -

  • Cameron Smith -0.5 > Marc Leishman @ Caesars -125
  • Cameron Smith ML > Viktor Hovland @ BetOnline -120
  • Matt Jones -0.5 > Pat Perez @ Caesars -130
  • Matt Jones ML > C.T. Pan @ BetOnline -138

3 Balls/Props (0.25 Units) -

  • Matt Jones > Cameron Tringale/Peter Malnati @ BetOnline +180
  • Dylan Frittelli > Alex Smalley/Lee Hodges @ MyBookie +180
  • Russell Knox Top GB/IRE Player @ FanDuel +135
  • Russell Knox Top Scottish Player @ FanDuel -165

Outrights (0.1 Units):

None for this round

Longshots (0.05 Units):

None for this round

Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

*Indicates the number of threshold metrics a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade" in out of:

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

FRL = First Round Leader

SRL = Second Round Leader

TRL = Third Round Leader

DK = DraftKings

FD = FanDuel

CZ = Caesars

BO = BetOnline

DSI = BetDSI

MB = MyBookie

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