By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of Strokes Gained Ratings from Round 1 of the PGA Championship, click here
In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for Round 2 of the PGA Championship.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.
Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
ROUND 2 BUYS (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)
Dylan Frittelli +8.9
Patrick Cantlay +6.7
Tom Lewis +6.5
Keegan Bradley +6.4
Jason Day +6.3
Harold Varner +6.2
Jordan Spieth +5.5
Bryson DeChambeau +5.3
Kurt Kitayama +4.9
Robert Macintyre +4.9
Cameron Smith +4.7
Mackenzie Hughes +4.6
Kevin Streelman +4.5
Rasmus Hojgaard +4.4
Charl Schwartzel +4.4
Cameron Davis +4.2
Daniel Balin +4.1
Brian Harman +4.1
Daniel Van Tonder +3.9
Shane Lowry +3.8
Viktor Hovland +3.8
Scottie Scheffler +3.8
Hideki Matsuyama +3.6
Aaron Wise +3.4
Ben Cook +3.3
Gary Woodland +3.2
Rikuya Hoshino +3.2
Hary Higgs +3.0
Kevin Na +3.0
ROUND 2 FADES (Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green)
John Katlin -9.4
Tyler Collet -9.1
Frank Bensel -9.0
Christian Bezuidenhout -8.5
John Daly -7.9
Brad Marek -6.6
Joseph Summerhays -6.4
Kyounghoon Lee -6.2
Thomas Detry -6.1
Peter Ballo -6.0
Wyndham Clark -5.5
Russell Henley -5.2
Brandon Hagy -5.0
Tim Pearce -4.8
Jim Herman -4.6
Lee Westwood -4.0
Adam Scott -4.0
Brendon Todd -4.0
Takumi Kanaya -4.0
Rob Labritz -3.7
Ben Polland -3.4
Sonny Skinner -3.4
Billy Horschel -3.4
Chez Reavie -3.3
Dean Burmester -3.1
Mark Geddes -3.0