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Charles Schwab Challenge: Round 2 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,PGA,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of Strokes Gained Ratings from the PGA Championship, click here.

In the fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little basic math. The main statistics we start with here is Strokes Gained Tee To Green (explained below). Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" formula, which I will summarize below, we will determine our best buys and fades for Round 2 of the PGA Championship.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfers strokes gained putting numbers for each main data point (strokes gained tee to green). The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green are the "sticky" stats that indicate which golfers are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a rating of "+3" or higher. Our "fade" golfers will be those with a rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys or two fades are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, in almost every scenario.

Without rambling on and on too much, I'll explain how these strokes gained statistics are sorted out here:

 

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine our Post-RD1/round to round matchup bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

ROUND 2 BUYS

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

Lashley +7.05

Mitchell +5.74

Conners +5.03

Ortiz +4.57

Kim +4.24

Stallings +4.17

Villegas +3.90

Shelton +3.83

Stanley +3.60

Higgs +3.58

Munoz +3.54

Kisner +3.36

Percy +3.35

Stuard +3.23

McCumber +3.11

Hickok +3.06

Sabbatini +3.05

Na +3.05

Woodland +3.03

Morikawa +3.01

ROUND 2 FADES

Strokes Gained Net Rating (SGR) - Tee To Green

Clearwater -12.43

Swafford -7.18

Dufner -6.72

Gligic -5.34

Compton -5.22

Hubbard -4.57

Ryder -4.42

Redman -4.39

JT -4.30

Seiffert -4.25

Thompson -4.17

Theegala -4.07

Grillo -4.02

Rose -3.84

Cook -3.78

Gay -3.74

Lewis -3.73

McNealy -3.29

Malnati -3.17

Zalatoris -3.14

Taylor -3.11

Augenstein -3.03

Jones -3.02

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