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WEEK 10 Record: 2-2
YEAR-TO-DATE Record: 23-18
Heinicke & Company Riding Too High
What a home run spot this is to fade the Washington Commanders. It’s hard to imagine there will be a bigger win for Ron Rivera and company than this past Monday night in South Philadelphia as Washington handed the Eagles their first loss of 2022. So what’s next for the suddenly resurgent Commanders who have won four out of five and are firmly in the NFC Wild Card mix? That would be a trip to Houston to take on the lowly Texans. A trustworthy team wouldn’t fall victim to this kind of flat spot. Despite four wins in five weeks, I’m not ready to call the Commanders a trustworthy team. Any time you bet bad teams, like the Texans, it’s either because of a lack of trust in their opponent or a point spread that’s simply too large you have to plug your nose and take the stinky dog. We’re not going to argue that 3.5 is too many points, but if you catch our drift we’re certainly not believing in Washington as a serious playoff contender. Our guess is Monday’s win against the Eagles was more of a one-off than a positive change for the Commanders. We’re on the Texans +3.5.
As much as I love the popular trend that says to bet on teams after their coach gets fired midseason, not even I could stomach the Colts last week during all the chaos and pushback they were getting from the national media for hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. The win in Las Vegas might have rejuvenated a dead Indianapolis team that went back to Matt Ryan at quarterback. At 4-5-1, the crazy thing is the Colts aren’t dead when it comes to playoff contention. Their safety net is essentially gone given how many teams are over .500 in the AFC, but my guess is the Colts will be pretty motivated coming back home off that win against the Raiders last week. From a matchup perspective, they may be able to hang in on Sunday against Philadelphia. The Eagles are allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the ground without Jordan Davis on their defensive line and the rookie out of Georgia remains on injured reserve. They give up only 3.9 yards per carry when Davis is clogging up the middle. Monday night’s loss to Washington was the third straight week the Eagles have allowed at least 140 rushing yards. They haven’t given up 140 rushing yards in three straight weeks to an opponent since 2006. This lines up for a big Jonathan Taylor game and for a motivated Colts team to stay competitive all afternoon long at home. Give us Indianapolis +6.5.
Motoring into the Big Apple
When a 7-2 team is only laying three points at home against a 3-6 team, there’s something going on. That something in this case is a continued distrust from oddsmakers towards the New York Giants. This is the same Giants team that was an underdog last month in Jacksonville. They keep winning, but the bandwagon of belief isn’t growing. Let’s ride with a similar angle and back a motivated upper Midwest team that wears blue and hop on the Lions. They came back in a divisional game against Chicago and are playing well enough to hang with a lot of teams. That win against the Packers looks a little bit better after the Packers beat Dallas doesn’t it? There have already been lots of rumblings out of Detroit that Dan Campbell and his staff will return in 2023. A few more wins in 2022 would give Campbell tangible proof of progress on the field and he could become less of a used car salesman and more of a viable football coach heading into what figures to be a pivotal season next year in the motor city. The Lions are far from a dead team despite their record and we’ll keep fading the Giants, who would have lost to most teams that weren’t the Texans last week. We’ll take Detroit +3.
Charging Up for a Playoff Push
I’m not one for moral victories, but it sure felt the Chargers were a team headed in the right direction on Sunday night in the Bay Area despite the 22-16 loss to San Francisco. The Chargers did manage to cover as touchdown underdogs against the 49ers and might actually have both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field on Sunday night this week against Kansas City. If you believe the Chargers have a run in them and this is a team that’s finally going to play up to its talent level and be dangerous come January, you’re getting pure value on the Los Angeles side this week. The Chargers were catching 3.5 back in September in Week 2 against the Chiefs on the road. Now a Charger team that appears to be getting healthier is getting 6.5 at home against the same Chiefs team. I realize SoFi Stadium might be the worst home field advantage in the NFL, but there’s too much line value on the Chargers to pass them up at +6.5 here.
By Greg Frank
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