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You smell that? It’s the stench that you’re going to have deal with when plugging your nose and taking the Commanders in this game in Arlington. It’s a stinky side, but we’re betting that Cooper Rush makes a costly mistake or two sooner rather than later. We often cite gambling rules off thumb in this column and another gambling proverb we live by is, do not be afraid to go back to the well with a team you’ve been hurt by when the time is right. Well, Washington burned us to the highest degree last week against the Eagles, but we’re on the Commanders as a division dog again. Take Washington +3.5 on the hunch that, at the very worst, it’s another safely-managed game by Rush and Dallas wins but fails to cover.
The Raiders might not be good, but they’re not 0-3 level bad either. A trio of close games all went against the silver and black to start the Josh McDaniels' era. The Week 2 choke job against Arizona was the only home game the Raiders have played so far in 2022 and Las Vegas essentially dominated the first three quarters of that one. Now they return back home for division rival Denver. The Raiders have scored 64 points through three games. That’s not “Greatest Show on Turf” kind of offense, but it sure beats the 43 points the Broncos have scored in three weeks. There’s a reason the 0-3 Raiders are favored over the 2-1 Broncos in this spot. Don’t fall for the trap of the “better team” getting points. Back the home chalk at -2.5 in this game.
Normal is Nice For Chiefs
I would have liked Kansas City in this spot regardless of what the weather conditions were like for Tampa Bay. While I certainly hope everyone is safe in Florida, I can’t help but think this has been a tough week for the Bucs amidst Hurricane Ian. As of this writing, the game is still in Tampa on Sunday night, but regardless of where it’s being played, the Chiefs at PK/+1 are the side we’ll be on. I worry that this will be a super public play, but ask yourself how Tampa can hang with the Chiefs offensively. Yes, I know the Bucs defense is elite, but this is the Chiefs coming off a loss in which they only scored 17 against Indianapolis. They’re going to score south of 20 again? I don’t think so. As I said, even without the tricky circumstances for Tampa Bay this week, I’d be backing the Chiefs. A little Super Bowl revenge from two years ago is some nice icing on the cake too.
Kyle vs. Sean
I had this in my preseason situational spots column, so of course I’m going to look at Kyle Shanahan’s dominance of Sean McVay the first chance I get to in the regular season. The San Francisco coach is both 7-3 straight-up and against the spread against his Los Angeles counterpart in 10 regular season matchups. I like this even more now that it’s a revenge spot for the 49ers after last year’s NFC Championship game at SoFi Stadium. Jimmy Garoppolo even gets to atone for the interception he threw to seal the deal for the Rams. Who would have thought that at the time he threw it? The Rams continue to look relatively pedestrian, coming in at 2-1 and off a pair of unimpressive wins against Atlanta and Arizona. We end this week’s column following the proverb we were preaching at the beginning of it. Do not be afraid to go back to the well with a team that burned you in the past when the time is right. We lost on San Francisco -1.5 last week, but we’re on the 49ers at an identical price this week.