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In Need of a Charge
Are we really about to think the Chargers are just fine after a win against the lowly Texans? Remember, the narrative surrounding the Chargers after Week 3 when they got blown out at home by Jacksonville and the Bolts were riddled with injuries? Like many others, I was bullish on the Chargers in the preseason, but I’m not about to buy back in after a win against Houston. Now, throw in the tricky travel spot for the Chargers and there's just no way you can like the Bolts here. They traveled halfway across the country from Los Angeles to Houston last week and are now traveling even further this week to Cleveland. I expect the Chargers to be a bit sleepy and flat right from the opening kickoff. I also like Cleveland responding at home after a tough road loss in Atlanta. Browns fans probably thought their team could win the Week 4 road game versus the Falcons without Deshaun Watson and figured they would lose this Chargers game. I’ll bank on a reversal of fortunes for a Cleveland team that has played pretty well in the first month sans Watson and take the short home dog catching two points in this one.
The Girlfriend I Can’t Break Up With
For the third week in a row, I am on the Commanders in this column. I should be done with this obsession but, for the third week in a row, I have found a different reason to bet on them. In Week 3, I thought the Eagles were riding high off a Monday Night win against Minnesota and might be flat on a short week, in what was a revenge spot for Carson Wentz. In Week 4, I simply felt Cooper Rush would come back down to Earth and make a costly mistake against Washington. Now, in Week 5, I think Tennessee, a team that’s won back-to-back games to recover nicely from its 0-2 start, should be a much more sizable favorite than just 1.5 points. There isn’t a game like this every week, but there’s usually a line here and there that I deem to be so far off, that the only way you can play the game is to back the fishy side. The sportsbooks don’t hand out free money. It might seem like Tennessee is just that, having found its form and now playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. We’ll take the Commanders +1.5 and promise to be done with them if they lose this game.
Did you know that first-ballot gambling hall of famer Teddy Bridgewater is 24-6 against the spread in road starts? For his career, Bridgewater is 42-21 lifetime ATS as a starter! The Dolphins have had over a week to install a game plan that suits Bridgewater’s strengths and he won’t be thrusted into action mid-game like he was last week in Cincinnati. I’m also not ready to trust the Jets to put together back-to-back games. New York is a young team with reasons for optimism for the future, but I also think there’s a reason the Jets have alternated loss-win-loss-win to start 2022. I’ll give up the field goal and back the Dolphins.
Silver and Back
The Raiders check a few boxes for me this week. First off, blindly betting road underdogs in the NFL has been a long-term profitable system as the away pooches have gone 379-298-19 ATS since the start of 2018. I always like a good divisional dog too. I also maintain belief that the Raiders are a good football team after giving them out in this column last week and cashing. Like everyone else, I have my doubts about Josh McDaniels, but I don’t have a problem fading the Chiefs off of a big primetime win last week. I think because of that win, we’re getting some line value on Las Vegas +7 and I also think here’s a chance this closes 7.5 so I’d hold out for the hook. It wouldn’t shock me if the Raiders won the game outright at Arrowhead on Monday night and sent a reminder to the rest of the AFC not to forget about them..