By JayRay
The bad beats couldn’t hold us down last week. Despite 1 awful inning the official plays went 3-1 and the additional plays went 4-1. Kluber cashed OVER 17.5 innings and continues to be dependable in the right match ups. Fried cashed two tickets (OVER 19.5 outs and Pirates UNDER 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings) and is match up proof at 17.5 outs and playable at 18.5 vs a majority of the league. The bad beat of the night was Ranger Suarez and his 6th inning collapse. After cruising through the first 5 he gave up 3 walks and 3 hits in the 6th. One hit was more than catchable for center fielder Matt Vierling, and 2 of the walks were with the bases loaded, the second with 2 outs! After the previous week’s plays I will happily take 3-1.
The Bets:
Max Fried OVER 19.5 Outs down to (-105) WIN
Pirates UNDER 1.5 runs first 5 innings up to (-155) WIN
Corey Kluber OVER 17.5 Outs up to (-195) WIN
Ranger Suarez UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-140) LOSS
The additional plays made up for the bad beat. While Cease’s struggles continued vs the Orioles, Davies went 5.2 innings, Ray got back on track and pitched into the 7th, Verlander held the Twins scoreless for 5 innings, and the Dodgers sent Burnes packing after 3.2 innings. deGrom didn’t pitch Tuesday but if you played his opponents first 5 under Thursday he cashed it holding the Rockies scoreless through 5.
Additional plays
On Thursday I started dropping a few picks a day on the Betting Predators Discord. Results through Sunday were 5-3. If you are enjoying the write ups I highly recommend checking it out. Also a one stop shop to get ready for the NFL season and your fantasy football drafts with channels dedicated to each. Here are the plays I will be targeting on Tuesday, August 30th, 2022.
Rays @ Marlins- 6:40 p.m. ET
McClanahan UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs (+105) Draftkings
It feels like cheating to go after the Marlins every Tuesday but if it's not broken don't fix it. Against left handed pitching they have a WRC+ of 66 (the next closest team is 81), over the last 2 weeks overall they are hitting .193 as a team, and since the all star break starters are averaging 1.8 earned runs per game (1.58 if isolated to lefties). Today they will be welcoming cross state Ray’s ace Shane McClanahan into town. McClanahan grades out amongst league leaders in nearly every category per Baseball Savant:
94th percentile K%
93rd percentile Hard Hit%
95th percentile Whiff%
He currently has a 2.2 ERA with a 2.55 xERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Since the all star break he has not been as dominant as he was in the first half but he threw 6 scoreless innings in his last start and I see no reason to think the Marlins will give him any trouble.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks- 9:40 p.m. ET
Aaron Nola OVER 19.5 Outs (-105) Draftkings
Zac Gallen UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-125) Draftkings
Phillies/Diamondbacks First 5 innings UNDER 3.5 (-105) MGM
Since the calendar turned to August Zac Gallen has been arguably the best pitcher in the league. He has not allowed a run in his last 27.1 innings, has gone 7+ innings in 3 of those 4 starts, and has 32 strikeouts. For the season Gallen has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP but his xERA is nearly full run higher at 3.48, so one could argue he has been a bit lucky. Given the return of Bryce Harper and how good the Phillies offense has been the last two weeks I will be looking to fade them at a nice price as they have had a very favorable schedule. Outside of the Mets they have played the Reds, Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals.
Nola has been fantastic all season and has even been unlucky as well, 3.08 ERA vs 2.6 xERA. He has been even better on the road in a nearly identical sample size in terms of innings, 2.13 road ERA vs 4.04 home ERA. Arizona is likely to run out a lineup of 7 left handed hitters but outside of strikeouts he has actually been better vs lefties in terms of batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. While Arizona is a below average offense they can be pesky due to their ability to work counts and generate walks (3.92 pitches per plate appearance and 9.39% walk rate). This is unlikely to impact Nola as he fills up the zone with a walk rate of only 3.4% (98th percentile). If the Dbacks put themselves in the hole vs Nola it likely won’t end well for them as hitters are batting .150 when Nola has 2 strikes.
Athletics @ Nationals- 7:05 p.m. ET
Cole Irvin OVER 18.5 Outs up to (-115) *no line at time of publishing
Nationals UNDER 2.5 Runs Frist 5 Innings (-140) Draftkings
If you have any questions, feel free to send me a message on twitter, @JayRay. Best of luck!
- Jay Ray, Special to The Betting Predators
Our Early Bird NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! The Betting Predators NFL Premium Package was created to give you with the highest-quality betting + player prop analysis. We're here to help you save time, win money, and become a long-term profitable sports bettor. Our team of analysts, led by Steve Rieder and Chris Dell, deliver real-time best bets and player prop analysis, every week, to make sure you crush your sportsbook. Get $20 OFF with code "NFL20" for our best price all season.