After a winner with the Astros in Miami on Wednesday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with another best bet for Thursday's short slate of games.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals: Mets F5 moneyline (-129) at BetRivers
I haven't placed a bet on the Mets in a little while, in large part because they've been awful since the passing of the trade deadline. In one of our last ever opportunities to fade Adam Wainwright, though, I can't help myself.
Wainwright continues to get the ball every fifth day for St. Louis despite being the worst pitcher in baseball this season, and it's been especially ugly for the 41-year-old in August. He is the not so proud owner of a 33.75 ERA this month, having surrendered 15 earned runs in four innings despite facing the light-hitting Rockies (away from Coors Field) and the Royals. The Mets' offense hasn't been great, but its still better than either of those opponents - and fading Adam Wainwright has been the closest thing to a free space in baseball betting this season. Waino ranks dead last in MLB among qualified pitchers in xBA, xERA, xSLG, barrel rate allowed, and strikeout rate allowed.
New York will send Jose Quintana to the mound, a lefty who has been a steadying force in an otherwise dismantled starting rotation. Quintana got a late start to his 2023, but he's pitched to a 3.03 ERA through six starts while never allowing more than three runs. In his last start against the mighty Braves, Quintana cruised through six strong innings while only allowing a run.
These might be two bad teams on a path straight to nowhere this October, but the Mets have the clear starting pitching advantage here. Let's back them and trust New York to do what every other team has done to Waino in 2023.