Blake Snell did his job, but San Diego's offense couldn't help us against lowly Adam Wainwright on Monday. Minnesota got it done though, salvaging a split on our best bets. MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with two more for Tuesday.
By Dalton Brown
9:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners: Mariners -1.5 (-127) at BetRivers
George Kirby at a reasonable runline price over the Athletics? Sign me up.
The Mariners are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and they're smashing lefties since the All-Star Break (135 wRC+, third-best in MLB over that span). Ken Waldichuk is an average lefty when he's at his best, and a punching bag when he's not - and in one outing on the road in Seattle this season, he surrendered five runs on eight hits without escaping the third inning. Overall, Waldichuk owns a 7.43 ERA away from home this season.
George Kirby, meanwhile, has been a bastion of consistency. He pitched seven strong innings in his one outing versus the A's this season, and holds a sterling 2.60 ERA in August.
The Bullpens are an even bigger mismatch, though - since August 1, Seattle's bullpen holds baseball's best xFIP at 3.33 while Oakland's ranks 29th at 5.02.
Sometimes, it's as simple as fading the league's worst team against one of the league's hottest.
9:45 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: Reds F5 +0.5 (-102) at BetRivers
The Cincinnati Reds will continue their west coast swing with game two of their series in San Francisco, and I'll happily take the free half-run over the game's first five innings in what to me feels like a relatively even matchup.
Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati opposite Alex Cobb for San Francisco, and there's not a ton separating the two of late. If anything, I'd give Williamson the small edge, especially considering that he allowed just two runs over six strong innings to the Giants in July before Cobb was touched up for five runs by the Reds three days later.
Cobb has been a mess recently, too. The righty owns a 6.84 ERA in August, and has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts. Williamson, conversely, is the owner of a 3.49 mark in August while surrendering a run or fewer in three of four.
It's not like the Giants have a platoon advantage working in their favor, either - San Francisco ranks 25th against lefties in wRC+ (78) since the All-Star Break, while Cincinnati ranks 25th against righties with a slightly better wRC+ of 85. The Giants are just 3-7 over their last 10 games, too, so we aren't getting in the way of a particularly hot team.
The Reds are presumably undervalued because.. they're on the road? That's not worth this price. There's value in this number, and I wouldn't mind a first-five moneyline play at +155 either.