Thursday presents a smaller MLB slate, but baseball handicapper Dalton Brown spotted a value bet more than 24 hours in advance that he thinks will move.
12:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: OVER 7.5 (-115) at DraftKings - 2 units
The Phillies and Marlins will finish out their weekday series Thursday afternoon from LoanDepot Park, and I absolutely love the "over" at 7.5. Newly-acquired righty Michael Lorenzen pitches for Philadelphia, while veteran Johnny Cueto will take the mound for Miami - and I don't think these two starters warrant such a low total.
Lorenzen, who pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Detroit before being traded to Philadelphia on Tuesday, has been the subject of a lot of hype lately - but for my money, he's vastly overrated. His xERA of 4.07 already paints a picture of a merely average starter, and he has seen most of his success against the worst division in baseball, the AL Central. Lorenzen's ERA is 6.75 against teams with records currently above .500 since June 1, and Miami made serious offensive upgrades at the deadline with the additions of Josh Bell and Jake Burger on the same day that Jazz Chisholm returned from injury.
Marlins starter Johnny Cueto has been mediocre in limited action for the Fish, posting a 5.06 ERA this season. In Cueto's last start, he surrendered four earned runs to Detroit's offense - with Philly up next, things could get even uglier.
Neither bullpen has been spectacular of late, either, each holding xFIP's north of 4.00 since July 1. In a season that has seen games average more than nine runs, a total of 7.5 needs to be justified with an elite pitching matchup and/or terrible offenses - this game features neither. Expect this number to rise quickly.