After a rain-soaked weekend across Major League Baseball, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is targeting a pair of bets from one interleague matchup on Monday's slate of games.
7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles: Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs (-115) at DraftKings, Dodgers moneyline (-103) at WynnBet
The Los Angeles Dodgers will visit the Baltimore Orioles to begin a three-game series Monday night, and I'm backing L.A.'s offense to carry them to a win on the road. Both the Dodgers and Orioles have been red-hot, but Los Angeles is sending the better-adjusted rookie to the mound in this one.
Highly-touted righty Grayson Rodriguez will toe the rubber for Baltimore, a pitcher who has struggled across the board in his first major-league season. Rodriguez's 7.35 ERA speaks for itself, but his 11.14 ERA in May earned him a demotion back to Triple-A Norfolk. Rodriguez has pitched well at Norfolk, but he has far from proven his worth at the MLB level - and with only three innings under his belt over the last 11 days, he will likely be working on a limited pitch count Monday.
Given Rodriguez's tendency to lose the strike zone, evidenced by three walks over three innings in his last appearance at Norfolk and a 27th-percentile walk rate for Baltimore, the patient Dodgers could be an especially painful test. When he has landed pitches in the strike zone, he's been hit hard - on average, he is allowing more exit velocities at 95+ miles per hour than 99% of qualified big league pitchers.
The Dodgers offense has crushed right-handed pitching for the better half of a decade, and 2023 is no different. Los Angeles ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with a 117 wRC+ against righties since June 15, and the Dodgers have posted five or more runs in eight of their last nine games.
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles' rookie starter, has posted a promising 3.25 xERA through his first four career starts. The sample size is still small with the 23-year-old, but the Dodgers pitching development is lauded league-wide for a reason and Sheehan has looked the part so far.
Baltimore's offense will be a stiff challenge to be sure, but I give the Dodgers at least narrow advantages in this game in starting pitching, bullpens (6th vs. 10th in xFIP since June 15), and splits vs. righties (4th vs. 8th in wRC+ vs RHPs since June 15). That's more than enough to show an edge at a price like -103, especially against a Baltimore team with a pythagorean record (51-40) that suggests negative regression could be on the way.