After an incredibly high-scoring day across the baseball landscape saw 11 teams score double digit runs on Tuesday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown has identified a best bet for Wednesday that envisions more of the same.
9:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: OVER 7 (-105) at DraftKings
The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners will play the third game of a four-game set Wednesday night form T-Mobile Park after the teams split the opening two games of the series. Both games saw double-digit combined runs, making Wednesday's exceptionally low total even more surprising.
Luis Castillo will start for Seattle, its right-handed ace - but lately, Castillo has been much more pedestrian. The righty has surrendered three or more runs in four of his last five starts, a trend that aligns with the negative regression one would expect from his 2.96 ERA to his xERA of 3.79. Castillo has surrendered multiple home runs in four of his last five starts as well - and with Minnesota on the docket for Wednesday, that could be very bad news. The Twins have hit the seventh-most home runs in baseball over the past 30 days, and hold an excellent wRC+ of 110 vs. righties since June 15.
Twins starter Kenta Maeda put forth a few promising outings in his return from the injured list in late June, but showed signs of crashing back down to earth in his last outing at Oakland. Maeda walked four batters over just three innings in that start, a dangerous combination with a hard-hit rate allowed that is higher than 98% of MLB pitchers this season. The Mariners are plenty respectable against right-handed pitching, as evidenced by their wRC+ of 104 in the split - and when Minnesota's bullpen enters the fold, Seattle will take its hacks at a unit that ranks just 20th in xFIP over the last month.
Castillo and Maeda are solid starting pitchers who are each capable of dominating when they're at their best, but neither one is near that form right now. A total this low generally indicates an outlier pitching matchup between two hot starters and two cold offenses, but this doesn't qualify. I don't expect seven to be available by morning, but it's available now - and a great value bet.