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Hunting The MLB: Daily Best Bets for Wednesday, July 26

MLB betting analyst Dalton Brown breaks down his favorite bets for today's card.

· MLB,Dalton Brown

After another 2-0 night for this article on Tuesday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with a pair of best bets for Wednesday's slate.

By Dalton Brown

@DaltonOnSports

45-42, +1.67u

6:40 p.m. ET: Anaheim Angels at Detroit Tigers: OVER 8 (-118) at BetRivers

The Angels and Tigers will play the second of a three-game set Wednesday night in Detroit after Anaheim picked up a win in the series opener. After each starting pitcher delivered solid performances Tuesday, both bullpens struggled - and with two middling-at-best starters going at it Wednesday's both 'pens will likely be relied upon again.

Patrick Sandoval will pitch for Anaheim, a lefty who has struggled to his highest ERA and xERA since 2020 while posting a career-low strikeout rate. Sandoval has been especially sloppy with his command on the road, posting a 12.9% walk rate - and over his last two starts, his seven walks in 12.1 innings have been scars on otherwise solid outings.

Zooming out a bit, Sandoval has posted a 5.25 ERA since June 1 - and against a Tigers lineup that prefers hitting lefties, he could be in more trouble Wednesday. Sandoval hasn't recorded an out in the sixth inning in five of his last seven starts, meaning the Angels bullpen will likely be leaned on heavily again - and since July 1, Anaheim's 'pen ranks just 29th in MLB with a 5.36 xFIP.

On the other side, Detroit will send All-Star Michael Lorenzen to the mound - and while I commend Lorenzen for his success this season, he's a prime negative regression candidate running into a hot Angels offense. Only six of Lorenzen's 17 starts in 2023 have come against teams who currently hold winning records, and Lorenzen has allowed five or more runs in four of those outings. Anaheim may qualify only by a small margin, but the Angels offense has crushed righties to the tune of a 127 wRC+ since June 15.

8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros: Astros team total OVER 4.5 (+100) at Caesars

The Houston Astros will look for a sweep - and a share of first place in the AL West - when they host the Texas Rangers Wednesday night. I'm expecting an even more raucous than usual crowd at Minute Maid Park, and I think the Astros offense will respond.

It helps, of course, that Houston is expected to have two of the best hitters in baseball returning to its lineup. Yordan Alvarez is expected to make his much-anticipated return, as is Jose Altuve. Together, they add an absurd amount of length to a lineup that has already posted a strong wRC+ of 106 vs. lefties since June 15 and takes on a struggling one in Andrew Heaney here. This is the third time the Astros have seen Heaney this season, too - and while the southpaw pitched well in each of the first two outings, I'm expecting adjustments - especially given Alvarez's and Altuve's combined 15-for-44 (.341) results against him.

Heaney has been plenty susceptible to seeing outings spiral out of control, too. He's surrendered four or more runs in three of his last five starts, posted ERA's over 5.40 in both June and July, and overall this season has pitched to his highest xERA since 2017 with the Angels.

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