After going 2-1 between Friday and Saturday to continue a 9-2 streak, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with a pair of plays from Sunday's American League slate.
2:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros: OVER 9 (-105) at WynnBet
The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros will play the rubber match of their three-game series Sunday afternoon at Minute Maid Park, and I'm expecting another high-scoring matchup.
Tampa Bay's beaten-up bullpen was punished to the tune of 17 runs allowed on Saturday, and it seems the Rays are lining up for a "bullpen game" on Sunday - led by run-of-the-mill righty Zack Littell. Tampa Bay Times reporter Marc Topkin reports that the Rays are hoping for four innings from Littell, but that could prove difficult - Littell has recorded one out in the fourth inning all season. Sunday, he'll take on a Houston offense that is seemingly firing on all cylinders following the returns of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez - each of whom homered Saturday.
Houston is turning to young righty Brandon Bielak, a pitcher due for continued steep negative regression. Bielak sports a hideous 5.49 xERA and bottom of the barrel Baseball Savant rankings across the board, was exposed for six runs by the Rangers in his last start, and has walked three or more batters in four of his last five starts. Tampa Bay has been an above average team all season, even as they've gone cold in the win column - since June 15, the Rays hold a wRC+ of 105 vs. righties (Houston is at 108, also above average).
I like our chances with two strong offenses in a hitter's park taking on well-below average starting pitching.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Orioles team total OVER 4.5 (-105) at Caesars
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will finish out their three-game set at Camden Yards on Sunday, and I'm targeting Baltimore's offense to bounce back after two quiet days.
The Orioles will take their swings against struggling righty Luis Severino, whose 6.41 xERA is worse than 97% of Major League pitchers. Severino has been even worse in July, pitching to a 8.84 ERA - and when he last saw the Orioles on July 6, the righty surrendered seven runs. New York's bullpen, which will follow him into the game, ranks just 23rd in xFIP since July 1 (4.71).
Severino has looked awful for two full months, making him a borderline auto-fade right now - and on a hot night in Baltimore against the talented Orioles, he is likely due for another clunker.