After a strong 2-0 day Wednesday, Dalton Brown is 10-6 on the season for +5.36 units and has another best bet lined up for Thursday's short MLB slate.
1:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Padres moneyline (-115) at DraftKings
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will play the rubber match of their three-game set Thursday afternoon from LoanDepot Park in Miami, and I'm all over San Diego to pick up a win on its way out of town.
The Padres are turning to righty Joe Musgrove, whose poor stats this season (2-2, 5.64 ERA) are creating value. The righty fell victim to pitching at extreme elevation in Mexico City in just his second start back from injury, but has steadily improved in his starts since and holds a 3.69 xERA that calls for obvious positive regression. He has struck out 12 batters while walking just one over his last two starts, including a stellar performance last time out at Yankee Stadium.
Miami counters with lefty Jesus Luzardo, a talented left-handed pitcher whose results have been volatile. Overall, Luzardo's stats (4-3, 3.67 ERA) and advanced metrics look solid - but he's allowed four or more runs twice in his last five starts and is surrendering more barrels than 85% of MLB pitchers.
While the edge between starters is minor in San Diego's favor, I feel strongly about the Padres' advantages both in these lineups' splits and in what comes out of the bullpen. San Diego ranks ninth in baseball since May 1 with a wRC+ of 125 against lefties, while Miami ranks just 23rd in the league with a wRC+ of 89 versus righties.
The Padres bullpen, despite a late hiccup Wednesday night, has the lowest ERA in baseball since May 1, and manager Bob Melvin has a history of rolling Josh Hader back out to the mound the day after a blown save. The Padres desperately want to avoid dropping another series before flying home, and I believe they'll find a way to win the finale in Miami.