After a strong 2-0, +2.12 unit showing on Saturday, Dalton Brown is back with two more best bets for Sunday's full slate of baseball.
1:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies: Dodgers moneyline (-120) at DraftKings
Sunday afternoon's matchup between the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies is the rubber match of their three-game set from Philadelphia, and I expect L.A. to fly home happy after taking the series win.
The Dodgers are going with a full Johnny Wholestaff approach, starting the game with Victor Gonzalez on the mound and following him with a bevy of bullpen arms. Teams tend to be underrated in these spots, and I think Los Angeles is here, too.
The Dodgers will almost certainly send down righty Andre Jackson after his three-inning outing Saturday, allowing them to call up an extra arm for Sunday, giving them extra ammunition. And because of Jackson's lengthy stint, the entire rest of the bullpen is fresh and ready to pitch with an off-day on deck Monday. I'm expecting Dave Roberts to throw the kitchen sink at the Phillies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it keep the home side at bay.
On the other side, Taijuan Walker (5-3, 5.04 ERA) could be in a world of hurt against a surging Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles crushed the righty for eight earned runs over just 3.1 innings when they saw him in L.A. last month, continuing a trend that has seen them victimize Walker throughout his big league career (5.25 ERA against the Dodgers). J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts, who will make up two of the Dodgers' top four hitters Sunday, are a combined 12-for-22 against Walker.
Los Angeles is just 2-3 on the road trip, but their lack of success has little to do with offense - the Dodgers have scored six or more runs in four of those five games, and scored four in the exception on Friday.
Given the Dodgers exceptional splits against righties (wRC+ of 113, fourth-best in MLB) and their bullpen's rest, I would make L.A. a bigger favorite here.
1:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays: Rangers moneyline (+170) at BetRivers
In a matchup between teams with baseball's best records, give me the Texas Rangers with a whole bunch of plus-money. In their current form, it would take a relatively extreme scenario for this number to make sense - and this is not an extreme scenario, despite Texas facing Rays ace Shane McClanahan.
McClanahan (9-1, 2.02 ERA) has put up gaudy numbers this season to be sure, but he is due his fair share of negative regression (xERA 3.59), and Texas has demolished lefties since May 1 (148 wRC+, third-best in baseball). The Rays lefty has quietly seen his walk-rate rise to a career-high 9.5%, and he's issued more than two free passes on average over his last six starts.
Do not get me wrong - McClanahan is an excellent starter we will usually look to back - but not here. Texas has everything needed to make all of his potential negative regression show up at once.
Martin Perez (6-1, 3.97 ERA) takes the mound for Texas, a lefty who has seen his ups and downs this season but dominated the Cardinals, known lefty-mashers, in his last start. Tampa Bay slots just one spot behind Texas in hitting left-handed pitching (wRC+ 143), so this isn't exactly a bet on Perez having success - but his xERA of 3.93 is close enough to the expected metrics from McClanahan that plus-170 odds do not pass the sniff test.
Give me the 40-22 Rangers as big underdogs in a game that smells at lot more like a toss-up than a sure Rays win.