After winning his only bet Monday, MLB handicapper Dalton Brown is back with two best bets for Tuesday's packed slate of baseball.
7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -140 (PointsBet)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will open up a three-game series Tuesday night from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and I am putting my trust in Chris Bassitt to stake Toronto to an early lead.
Bassitt has been confounding at times, mixing in occasional clunkers, but at present he is pitching exceptionally well. The righty tossed 15.2 innings over his last two starts, earning wins over the Mets and Astros while allowing just two earned runs for a 1.15 ERA so far in June. Baltimore's preferred split is left-handed pitching, and the Orioles haven't seen the righty Bassitt since he signed with the Blue Jays.
In terms of hitting righties, Toronto is the best in the bigs with a wRC+ of 117, while Baltimore ranks just 15th. That spells bad news for O's starter Dean Kremer, whose xERA of 6.22 suggests he's been flirting with disaster all season despite a misleading 6-3 record. Kremer's Baseball Savant profile reads more like Patrick Corbin's than it does any front-line starter, and he was drilled for six earned runs in his last start at Milwaukee.
Baltimore does have a solid bullpen, so let's press our advantage when it's strongest - early in the game. If -140 becomes unavailable, I would pivot to Blue Jays F5 -0.5 at up to -120.
10:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers: OVER 8.5 (-115) at FanDuel
The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will begin a three-game interleague series from Dodger Stadium Tuesday night, and I'm expecting offensive fireworks against two middling-at-best righties.
The White Sox are sending struggling veteran righty Lance Lynn to the mound, a pitcher who finished May with a 5.97 ERA and started June off by allowing five earned runs to the Yankees. Lynn hasn't done much of anything well lately - he's surrendered 13 runs on 16 hits over just nine innings over his last two starts while striking out eight and walking five.
The Dodgers obliterate right-handed pitching (113 wRC+, fourth-best in baseball), and have been an offensive juggernaut at home when a new foe comes to town. The Dodgers' offense is averaging seven runs per game in home series openers, including six runs or more in six of their last seven series openers.
Tony Gonsolin's statistics look excellent at first glance (3-1, 2.21 ERA), but he is due for clear negative regression as he sports a 4.57 xERA. Some of that regression has begun to arrive, as the righty has coughed up three or more runs in two of his last three starts. He has issued two or more walks in four straight starts, an especially concerning statistic when you add in that he's striking out batters at a lower rate than 80% of MLB pitchers. Chicago isn't great against righties, but Tony Gonsolin has completed six innings just twice in eight starts this season and will be followed into the game by L.A.'s beat-up and 29th-ranked bullpen by ERA (5.63) dating back to May 15.
I would happily play this number at 9 as well, but grab the lingering 8.5 at FanDuel while you still can.